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PostPosted: Fri Sep 23, 2016 10:32 am 
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“We are going to benefit from the fantastic opportunities for greater free trade with our friends in the EU. It’s overwhelmingly in their interest to do that.

“Not only do we buy more German cars than anybody else, we drink more Italian wine than any other country in Europe, 300 million litres of Prosecco every year. They’re not going to put that at risk.


He also said it was a load of baloney that we couldn't have free trade with the EU if we don't have free movement of EU citizens to the UK.

1. Why does he think it's a load of baloney?

2. What proportion of German cars do we buy in terms of EU and worldwide purchases? Is it enough for them to be worried that we wouldn't buy them if there was some tax slapped on them?

3. Why does he think we'll drink less Prosecco because there's some tax on the price? And why does he think the EU in totality will be that bothered about us not being included in the free trading between EU countries? We don't represent a high proportion of their export market do we?

Please expllain in simple terms - I don't know anything about import and export tarrifs etc and how these affect trade in general.


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PostPosted: Fri Sep 23, 2016 10:56 am 
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First you would need a degree in Classics because maths if definitely not his thing.


“Whatever you may think of the value of IQ tests, it is surely relevant to a conversation about equality that as many as 16 per cent of our species have an IQ below 85, while about 2 per cent have an IQ above 130,”

Said BoJo in justification of selective education -not realising even if you took all the undergraduates at Oxford and only gave them an IQ test you would still have 16% below 85 and 2% obove 130. :roll: :roll: in other words if everyone in the UK had almost Newton like brains there would still be the same distribution of IQ-it's relative to the cohort, someone has to be, definition, in the lowest 16% and others in the top 2%-baffoon.

To call the man an idiot would be insulting to idoits!


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PostPosted: Fri Sep 23, 2016 11:35 am 
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My dh is a politics teacher. I don't pretend that that means he knows all the answers to everything but he says he believes that our current ministers have such inflated senses of their own importance that that translates into their inflated sense of the UK's importance and therefore this notion that we matter to other countries - when the reality is of course that they won't care at all whether or not they import marginally less or more prosecco given that that's probably a tiny proportion of overall exports across the world....


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PostPosted: Fri Sep 23, 2016 11:57 am 
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More re-moaning. :roll:

It's pretty obvious isn't it?

Manufacturers want to sell, governments facilitate that. Tariffs affect cost which affects demand.

Do you really think there won't be bilateral agreements once all the posturing is over?

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PostPosted: Fri Sep 23, 2016 12:00 pm 
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loobylou wrote:
My dh is a politics teacher. I don't pretend that that means he knows all the answers to everything but he says he believes that our current ministers have such inflated senses of their own importance that that translates into their inflated sense of the UK's importance and therefore this notion that we matter to other countries - when the reality is of course that they won't care at all whether or not they import marginally less or more prosecco given that that's probably a tiny proportion of overall exports across the world....
There is a growing literature on the cult of celebrity politicians (both celebrities who decide to venture into politics and the use of celebrity tactics by regular politicians). Interestingly one recent scholarly article I found very easily uses BJ as an example.

Quote:
In a supposedly ‘anti-political’ age, the scholarly literature on celebrity politicians argues that politicians gain popularity by adopting strategies from within the world of entertainment. This article offers the findings of a research project that has detected a marked shift in the interplay between celebrity culture and the presentational strategies adopted by politicians..it offers numerous empirical examples...before using the example of Boris Johnson as a case study in the attempted shift from ‘superstar’ to ‘everyday’ celebrity.
Just like us: Everyday celebrity politicians and the pursuit of popularity in an age of anti-politics; Wood et al, 2016

Apologies to UmSusu for using another academic reference on the forum; but it is quite interesting and supports your point LLL. :)


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PostPosted: Fri Sep 23, 2016 12:07 pm 
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SVE, Yes, of course there will most likely be bilateral agreements at some point between us and the EU. But no country (apart from Lichtenstein?) has tariff free trade with the EU without free movement of people etc does it?

I'm asking a genuine question SVE ......... like I have done before. There's no need to be either mysterious or sarcastic is there?

And the absence of free trade doesn't mean no trade either - yes, it affects demand if tariffs put the price up. That much I understand ...... but I'm getting no further than that.

I think I need a few paragraphs of explanation rather than sound-bytes etc. But I don't know where to get it.


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PostPosted: Fri Sep 23, 2016 1:27 pm 
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mystery wrote:
But no country (apart from Lichtenstein?) has tariff free trade with the EU without free movement of people etc does it?
You can't limit yourself to historical examples, the world is changing.
There will be restrictions on movement of people and this won't just be a specific UK phenomenon, the socialist dream of open borders is breaking down; it's history.
The EU has some big structural problems and they are looming large, look at the Italian and German banks.
The EU has a very weak hand, they can posture all they like but in the end they will be desperate to do deals with the UK and other nations.

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PostPosted: Fri Sep 23, 2016 3:10 pm 
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Can you give me some specific examples of deals they might eventually choose to make with us? I genuinely am not following the drift of this.


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PostPosted: Fri Sep 23, 2016 3:49 pm 
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mystery wrote:
Can you give me some specific examples of deals they might eventually choose to make with us? I genuinely am not following the drift of this.
Tariff free trading of automobiles.

I'm not an economist but if you poke around such places as...

https://www.wto.org/english/thewto_e/wh ... act3_e.htm

...you can see a small description of Comparative Advantage.

There will be huffing and puffing but in the end it is in the interest of all parties to agree competitive trade terms.

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PostPosted: Fri Sep 23, 2016 4:05 pm 
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mystery wrote:
Can you give me some specific examples of deals they might eventually choose to make with us? I genuinely am not following the drift of this.
Mystery, have you tried looking in some European press articles? I don't know which other languages you speak but sometimes they show things which are not really reported here. An article in 'Die Zeit', for example recently emphasised that May foresees difficult times ahead economically as a result of Brexit- I don't recall this getting much air time here. This quote explains that there may be loans for property companies - presumably from the £350 billion which we are, er, going to save by leaving the EU (sic). :
Quote:
"Aber ich behaupte nicht, dass es eine ruhige Reise wird, vor uns liegen schwierige Zeiten." Über ein staatliches Hilfspaket will die britische Regierung im Herbst entscheiden. Einem Bericht zufolge soll es unter anderem vergünstigte Kredite für Immobilienfirmen geben.

This one from the Swedish press has a Slovak minister threatening to veto trade deals with England and saying that it will be a hard road ahead:
Quote:
EU-ordförandelandet Slovakien menar att brexit kommer att bli mycket svårt för britterna och hotar lägga in veto i förhandlingarna om ett nytt avtal med Storbritannien.
Socialdemokraten Robert Fico, premiärminister för Slovakien som för närvarande innehar det roterade ordförandeskapet i EU, menar att det brittiska utträdet ur EU bli ”smärtsamt”.


https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... parliament
The EU countries whose languages I can understand well enough to read articles all seem to agree with the central sentiment in the above article, despite what many of those who voted for Brexit are saying (SVE? :wink: ):
Quote:
“The European parliament will never agree to a deal that de facto ends the free movement of people for a decade, while giving away an extra rebate in exchange for all the advantages of the internal market. What would stop other countries from asking the same exceptional status?” he said.

I am sure JaneEyre can offer some French views and people with better language skills than I can trawl about a bit to see what else is being said. I don't think the British press is necessarily going to be the best place to get a full picture of what Europe is likely to want.
SunlampVexesEel wrote:
You can't limit yourself to historical examples, the world is changing.
Yes, but Norway and Switzerland, who pay through their respective noses for any privileges sold to them by the EU and who arguably have more capital to offer in return, are hardly going to sit back and watch while Britain gets some kind of bargain deal, are they? Both those places are flipping expensive to live in and visit, and we are not at all in the same position as either of them when it comes to trying to broker deals. I think we flatter ourselves if we believe that Europe is going to be falling over itself to keep us - with our demands and refusals to do this and that - on board at the expense of easier and richer customers. The view I am picking up from European friends is that we are about to become a bit of a laughing stock. The world is indeed changing; and we look like being left behind while it does.
On a brighter not, however, you can relax if you own a ski chalet in Gstaad:
http://www.mansionglobal.com/articles/4 ... ki-chalets


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