Why aren't there more Grammar schools?

[wonderwoman]

Well it would seem from this that a number of us, who in statistics would appear to be supportive of the grammar system, actually are not.

[ahap]

There you go ..............for anyone who need more information regarding how Channel 5 got their the statistics.

Hope it clarifies any doubts regarding the statistics.
Ahap.


Dear xxxxxx

Thank you for your recent enquiry regarding The Wright Stuff.

The 5th October discussion concerning whether it is time to bring back grammar schools was inspired by the launch of the Sutton Trust’s Open Access scheme, which has seen 80 independent day schools pledge to open their doors to talented pupils from non-privileged backgrounds if the government agrees to pay part of their fees.

The statistic you refer to in your e-mail was used as a question during one of the advertisement breaks and asked:

There are currently 160,000 state-funded grammar school places. How many kids apply for them each year?

A) 200,000
B) 1 million
C) 2 million

Two million was the correct answer.

The number of state-funded places at selective schools is widely quoted as being approximately 160,000 – for example, here:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/education/ed ... emand.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

The figure for applications, which we must stress is approximate again, as such things invariably are, comes from sources such as this:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/education/ed ... exams.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Competition for places is fierce, and can often see as many as 13 pupils vying for a single spot at a state-funded grammar school.

If we accept that there are 160,000 places, with around 13 pupils applying for each place, then 160,000 multiplied by 13 comes out at 2.08m.

Thank you for your interest in Channel 5.

Yours sincerely
xxxxxxxxxxxxx

[Belinda]

160,000 at state grammars...

Isn't that over all year groups, Year 7 to Year 13?

Which twit at Channel 5...

[Belinda]

...Can't divide by 7?

[daveg]

Hope it clarifies any doubts regarding the statistics.

Yes. It shows it's total nonsense.

[Sally-Anne]

Yes. It shows it's total nonsense.

Indeed. Statistics for Bucks in a typical year:

Children taking the 11+: 7100

Places available: 2126

Applicants for each place: 3.3

Bearing in mind that the Bucks test is "opt out", and some children will take the test purely because it is there, and not because they are expected to qualify.

[Sally-Anne]

So, extrapolating that upwards:

The average admission number for Bucks grammar schools: 163

Assuming that is typical of all grammars (which it pretty much is): 163 x 164 schools = 26,732 places in Year 7.

Assuming that Bucks is not unrepresentative of the average number of applicants for each place: 3.3 x 26,732 = 88,215.

Not far off 2 million then ...

[daveg]

Yes. It shows it's total nonsense.

Indeed. Statistics for Bucks in a typical year:

More fundamentally, there aren't two million 11 year olds. There aren't even one million 11 year olds. You don't need to know anything about grammar schools or the 11+ to know that the claim is wrong, because there are only about 670 000 11 year olds in the country.

[ahap]

According to the daily telegraph which they are referring to states: Currently, some 158,000 children attend state-funded grammars in England – almost five per cent of the school roll.

Doesn't this mean it is over all year groups, Year 7 - Year 13?

Right.......I'm off to write to them again.

[Sally-Anne]

Just spent an idle moment looking at the Kent stats as well.

The Telegraph article quotes a figure of 11,451 pupils taking the test.

There are 4,739 GS places in Kent, giving an average of 2.4 applicants per place.

Given that Bucks and Kent between them have 30% of grammar school places, I think we can safely say that 13 applicants per place is truly in the realms of fiction other than for one or two sought-after schools with no catchment area.