Huge increase in numbers sitting in all areas

[London_Mum]

I was thinking more of schools like Epsom College and St John’s (indie competitors for the Sutton and Kingston grammar school children). They don't take children until Year 9 - there is no option to go there at 11 and no indie 11+

They have introduced a pre test whereby 11 year olds sit examinations to determine whether or not they will be allowed to apply to the school at age 13. This is only the second year of pre testing so is something quite new to that sector.

It has forced the tutoring / exam preparation issue on some parents much earlier than expected and, as such, has raised the possibility of doing grammar exams too. Admittedly this probably only applies to children in prep schools who originally saw themselves on a steady path to indies that start in Year 9 with no Year 6 angst about schools at all. Pre testing highlights the increased competition for private school places and forces parents to explore more options and parents do seem much more aware of options this year (or more open about discussing them).

I don't know anything at all about the HBS or Latymer areas and the increase there seems huge (700 extra!) so perhaps different factors affect different areas?
I noted somebody mentioned a steady birth-rate for example. In our area, children born in 2003 had more of a struggle for primary places than those born Sept 2000 - August 2002. That too may differ elsewhere.

[mystery]

So maybe the C E M advertising in the national press has worked? More people are having a go because they have read it is now a test of native with rather than being prepared?

London mum, I agree you have some possible reasons for the increase.

I used advertising in the loosest sense of the word here. All the many articles in the press over the last year or so about "fairer" entrance tests being introduced by many schools are advertising for parents who may not have given it a go before, to give it a go.

If more try, this is good if there are children from backgrounds who would never have given themselves a chance at it before. It is also good news for the exam suppliers as they generally paid according to the numbers who sit tests.

If more give it a go, then hopefully the range of backgrounds from which children come at grammar schools will broaden e.g. More fsm children, of which there are shockingly few.

If this happens it will also look as though the new test is fairer even if it is not. The benefit could come from the press campaign saying these new tests are fairer and encouraging a broader range of applicants, rather than from the test actually being fairer. No one will ever know for sure, but it will be a highly satisfactory situation for purveyors of "fairer tests".

[silverysea]

Any idea how much Durham or GL get for each paper? They must be minting it.

[mystery]

On the Kent business portal you can see contracts awarded by KCC. The last contract with GL assessment (which has now expired) was £1,150,000 for three years (not per annum, total for three years). I don't know if this included any variation for numbers. I think last year 13,500 children sat the Kent test. Kent is opt-in. The price doesn't include the marking I don't think - I believe that is done by KCC, and they then send the data to GL assessment who send back the standardised results to KCC. GL set the questions, provided an early draft for KCC to approve / change, then printed in sufficient quantities and supplied to the required deadlines. It was quite a long lead-in - longer than seems to be the case now in the new CEM authorities.

You must be able to look up contracts similarly on other authority websites. It is public stuff - but maybe if they just contract for a year and the ££ are lower a different procurement route applies and less is on the web without having to ask.

Have no idea if CEM costs more or less -- it should cost less as it's a not for profit organisation (I think, not sure), and presumably it doesn't have the same technical department behind it that GL assessment has for the massive range of psychometric and pyschological tests it has developed over the years. Not quite sure what the relationship is between NFER and GL assessment, but presumably NFER has a long history of educational research of the quantitative kind which comes into play in the test development cycle.

[Okanagan]

CEM also do the MidYis and Yellis testing which is used in a lot of schools, so it's a bigger organisation than just the 11+ testing part.

[mystery]

Oh yes - you can see everything they do on their website these days - it looks pretty big business. Midyis and yellis are just one small part of their business.

[fairyelephant]

Hi 2girlsmum, I still think it could be largely down to birth increase. I don't think any of the factors could have produced such a dramatic shift in one year, they were all in existence last year anyway. Didn't the table you posted on the other thread show an increase of 30,000 in 2003? The numbers applying from our north London primary to Latymer are about the same as last year I would say (DS y6, DD y7), but the distance based catchment area was much smaller which suggests higher birth rate round here and more applicants per square mile, IFYSWIM. Arm chair stats I know, but just what I see in my small patch.