Hugely increased numbers for 11 plus this/last year?

sheepwolf · Post by **sheepwolf** » Tue Jul 14, 2009 11:40 pm

I am hearing anecdotally that numbers of applications are rising dramatically for non-catchment schools. Someone who knows someone (not VERY scientific sampling, I appreciate

) suggests a four-fold increase for the school we are looking at.

This is filling me with even more dread and worry about whether it is the right thing to do...

What do you think? Is this right (as credit crunch encourages people out of independent schools?) or is this just tutors trying to talk up business?

Guest55 · Post by **Guest55** » Tue Jul 14, 2009 11:49 pm

Welcome to the forum ...

Which area are you? I really doubt there will be a four-fold increase in numbers

You could try posting in the local sections - just scroll down.

mike1880 · Post by **mike1880** » Wed Jul 15, 2009 12:27 am

Chill, it's just scaremongering. Numbers were actually well down in Birmingham for 2009 entry. There was quite a big decrease in the size of the cohort which has far outweighed whatever impact the credit crunch might have had - it's had an effect on catchment areas for the comps as well, they're much, much bigger than last year.

Mike

sheepwolf · Post by **sheepwolf** » Wed Jul 15, 2009 12:35 am

Thanks, have posted other questions in relevant regional forum but VERY quiet there!

Yes, sounds like scaremongering and rumour. Glad you think so too. Who does this and to what end?

sheepwolf · Post by **sheepwolf** » Wed Jul 15, 2009 12:38 am

And good point about cohort size... I had forgotten that my son's year had had spare places and split year classes because of shrinking numbers.

yoyo123 · Post by **yoyo123** » Wed Jul 15, 2009 10:31 am

I think it is exaggerated. last year would have been too soon for the recession to make a difference. there was a rise in applications in Kent butthis was more to do with the fact that the date of the test changed from January to September and parents would know the results before applying for secondary schools

Post by **hermanmunster** » Wed Jul 15, 2009 10:53 am

I think there are variations from time to time. Amongst girls in Skipton last year, there must have been many more taking the exam as the OOC distance was lower than it had been for a few years before, significantly many girls from Ilkley passed and would normally have been offered places but last year the only ones who got in were those with sisters at school already.
I think it was the recession, the canny yorkshire souls looked ahead and realised that this wasn't going to be a blip!

KenR · Post by **KenR** » Wed Jul 15, 2009 12:34 pm

Chill, it's just scaremongering. Numbers were actually well down in Birmingham for 2009 entry. There was quite a big decrease in the size of the cohort which has far outweighed whatever impact the credit crunch might have had - it's had an effect on catchment areas for the comps as well, they're much, much bigger than last year.

Mike,

Although the numbers taking the B/Ham KE Test have gone down slightly, the pass mark has actually gone up significantly. This suggests that the average ability of the cohort has gone up, or to put it another way, many of the no-hopers are not bothering to taking the test!

If you take the minimum pass scores for 2008 and 2009 the minimum percentile required for most schools has gone up by about 3%. (KE Aston being the exception which has stayed the same).

For example, the KE Camp Hill Boys pass percentile went from the 84th to the 87th percentile; KE 5-Ways from 74th to 77th and KE Camp Hill Girls from 70th to 74th.

Which ever way you look at it, it's getting tougher and the trend will probably continue for the 2010 exam.

Regards

Ken

Milla · Post by **Milla** » Wed Jul 15, 2009 12:41 pm

this is just what I don't want to read! Was comforting myself, having read the BBC website, that it applied mainly to primaries and now this. Certainly round here, received wisdom has it that the cut off mark shifted upwards by quite a way.

moved · Post by **moved** » Wed Jul 15, 2009 2:32 pm

Significant increase in Essex for the Chelmsford schools and the quality of those entered for the test still remained very high. From memory 200 extra girls tried for CCHS this year. Generally only high achievers sit this exam anyway as the pass mark is significantly higher than some other grammars in the area.