Millenium Baby boom...

[Lemmie]

I was talking to a friend about Secondary schools this morning and she mentioned that several other Mums had talked about a 'Millenium baby boom' in conversation and the possible affect on Secondary admissions.

It's not something I had considered, and not something I know much about. I wasn't aware of a bump in numbers in my DSs school year at Primary school (Athough my DW has just confirmed there is a bump in my DSs year) all I can find through Google is that there was a minor boom in 2000... but not the extent of it.

Just curious to see if anyone can shed any light.

[hermanmunster]

The numbers were actually slightly lower in 2000.....posted them before - will hunt and find them

[hermanmunster]

Here they are - 2.9% drop between 1999 and 2000

The millenium baby boom was an illusion:

year births
1996 643862
1997 637001
1998 629926
1999 615994
2000 598580
2001 588868
2002 590453
2003 615787
2004 633651

[Snowdrops]

That;s very surprising, there was such a big broohaha about it at the time!

[mike1880]

But very welcome to those of us going through the hoops this year! This year's "last admission" distances at local comps were absolutely huge, I'm hoping they'll be even further next March (there's a really good comp I'd like to get Miss 1880 into if she doesn't get into GS and this year was the first time in 5 years that we'd have been close enough).

Mike

[hermanmunster]

It is interesting - there was a lot of fuss. The rates of fertility over the last few years have been interesting - these are the births per 1000 women aged 15-44. There has been quite and increase...... the senior schools will have to be a bit bigger in 2017-2019


1998 59.2
1999 57.8
2000 55.9

2001 54.7
2002 54.7
2003 56.8
2004 58.2
2005 58.3

2006 60.2
2007 62.0
2008 63.8

and births:

1998 635,901
1999 621,872
2000 604,441

2001 594,634
2002 596,122
2003 621,469
2004 639,721
2005 645,835

2006 669,601
2007 690,013
2008 708,711

a 100,000 more than in 2008 than 2000

[wonderwoman]

I knew my special 2004 baby was part of an increase in the birth rate. She is in the biggest year group they have had for years at primary, in fact since my eldest was there 10 years ago. Places for nursery are competitive - spare places a few years ago, heavily oversubscribed when my DDs went.
Not good planning at all.

[sherry_d]

Hmmm there is gonna be 100 000 more fighting for places when its my son's turn.

We may start feeling it early at reception because one school close to me where children from my neck of woods always go told me that this year some roads from my area didnt get in on allocation but most managed to get in after appeal.

[Lemmie]

Thanks Hermanmunster. How bizarre.

I know the number of 11+ applicants for Kent was around 11700 in 2008 and around 11900 last year. It would be interesting to know how many have taken it this year. I'm usually not bad at tracking stuff down but perhaps the figures aren't out yet?

[hermanmunster]

Hmmm there is gonna be 100 000 more fighting for places when its my son's turn.

.

Not all at the same school we hope