GCSE Predicted Grades

Discussion and advice on GCSEs

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nigs
Posts: 105
Joined: Fri Mar 26, 2010 8:38 pm

GCSE Predicted Grades

Post by nigs »

Before I call the school, I was wondering if anyone knows if "Predicted Grades" for GCSE are the grades normally sent through by the school at the end of term, is there an official sheet sent by the school at some point labelled "Predicted Grades" or are they the grades a child gets in their mock GCSE exams.
mystery
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Re: GCSE Predicted Grades

Post by mystery »

Oooooooh, I think to be on the safe side you need to ask that particular school what they do. I don't know if predicted grades have to be sent in to the GCSE exam board any more? That used to be the case. And I don't know if the school might do different predictions for different audiences e.g. ones for the LEA, ones for the parents and child, ones for the exam board etc etc.

Certainly predictions tend to be safe bets, not ambitious targets to encourage a child to strive their utmost. Some schools go one step further and give a prediction which is a safe bet based on data (gleaned from huge population), and another stretch target which is what they think that child could do if works really hard etc etc.

I don't know how meaningful school predictions are for any one individual child either ....... it sounds as though some schools just extrapolate from KS1 and KS2 results based on average progress, or from the Fisher Family trust way of doing things, which can result in lower predictions than the child is capable of given good teaching and hard work.

School predictions start to matter when your child is applying to university as I think that A2 predictions are sent in with the school's reference that goes along the child's UCAS application. Hopefully by this stage schools predict on their knowledge of the individual child, and the results already gained in AS modules.

Up to GCSE I think I would work out for myself what I thought my child was capable of. You would need to be sure that they were in groups / sets that are covering the material that will enable them to get the grades you are hoping for e.g. if your child was in lower sets and you were hoping for A*s there could be a mismatch between the curriculum they are covering and the grades you are hoping for. In this case you'd need to cover extra material at home no doubt.

A word of warning - ask questions of the school but don't sound as though you disagree with their predictions ------- maybe instead ask what your DC would need to do to beat the predictions. Some children really rise to the challenge of beating the school predictions, others think "if that's all they think I'm capable of, that's all I'm going to work for". School target and prediction systems are quite often outside the control of the person you are talking to, or they might feel you are challenging their professional judgement (even though you are not) so you have to tread carefully.
nigs
Posts: 105
Joined: Fri Mar 26, 2010 8:38 pm

Re: GCSE Predicted Grades

Post by nigs »

Thanks mystery.

An application form for sixth form entry is requesting predicted grades for GCSE at my DC's present school and I wasn't sure whether to use the grades from my DC's last grade sheet or whether schools issue an official Predicted Grade sheet at some point.
bromley mum
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Re: GCSE Predicted Grades

Post by bromley mum »

At my DD's school those who are applying to other 6th forms need to ask for predicted grades which are then used to apply for the 6th form schools.
tiredmum
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Joined: Sun Nov 01, 2009 2:51 am

Re: GCSE Predicted Grades

Post by tiredmum »

my dd1 had her predicted grades shown when she had an assessment sheet home each term.
It would say the current grade she was working at, and the predicted grade. The mock results are usually a bit lower than the final grade achieved.
mystery
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Joined: Tue Jul 21, 2009 10:56 pm

Re: GCSE Predicted Grades

Post by mystery »

If it is an application to another school, I would find out what the school is going to predict as it could significantly affect the chances of receiving an offer. Do you know what sort of predictions the new school is looking for? Places are usually conditional on actual GCSE results (is this the case?) but the new school will need to know it is receiving reliable info so that it doesn't make offers to candidates who won't make the grade, and equally so that they don't miss out on good candidates who are being underassessed at some schools.

With a bit of luck the school you are applying to might know how accurate / inaccurate your school tends to be on its predictions.
nigs
Posts: 105
Joined: Fri Mar 26, 2010 8:38 pm

Re: GCSE Predicted Grades

Post by nigs »

Yes, it's for an application to another school. I know the grades they are looking for and a final offer will be conditional on the actual GCSE grades. Unfortunately, in my DC's school assessment reports, only current grades are listed and not predicted grades. I guess I could use my own judgement based on a couple of the last reports.

Wasn't sure if it would be in good taste to ask current school what her predicted grades are.
tiredmum
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Joined: Sun Nov 01, 2009 2:51 am

Re: GCSE Predicted Grades

Post by tiredmum »

nigs wrote:Wasn't sure if it would be in good taste to ask current school what her predicted grades are.
Thats fine to ask - you may want to know for a number of reasons. dd1 did her gcse's at fort pitt, and at the open eves the teachers were always happy to discuss what the grades were. :)
solimum
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Location: Solihull, West Midlands

Re: GCSE Predicted Grades

Post by solimum »

We had to ask DD's school for predicted GCSE grades a year ago in similar circumstances: they were apparently going to be made available in time for the next scheduled parents evening but we needed to hurry up the process as the deadline for applications to other sixth forms was earlier. A phone call to the head of year was very helpful - he was very supportive of DD's applications to other sixth forms and even helped encourage one teacher to improve a lower than desirable predicted grade which my DD was very cross about (She felt the teacher didn't like her and had a low opinion of her abilities, and was very pleased to successfully achieve the higher predicted grade!).

BTW she did get an offer from one of the other sixth forms but in the end decided to stay put. Now we have to start thinking about which universities are worth £9,000 a year.....
nigs
Posts: 105
Joined: Fri Mar 26, 2010 8:38 pm

Re: GCSE Predicted Grades

Post by nigs »

Solimum, we are in exactly the same situation as you were, with the deadline for applications for the other sixth form being quite early.

I have now phoned the school and it seems the predicted grades to be issued in February will be based on their mock results, exams of which they are now taking, but I have been told that I can use the grades on her last grade sheet.

Thanks, all.
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