How many OOC places- we should be realistic

[mbab]

For those of us OOC it would be helpful if we actually calculated how many places are available for our DC.

An example for boys
KEGS- 22
Westlcliffe- Perharps another 22
Southend - Perharps another 22

This gives at least 66 place or maybe 100 at the most.

If 4000 children sat the exam maybe 2000 girls 2000 boys

If 40% were OOC that gives 800 boys(may be a higher percentage)

This pushes OOC cut off points to a reallyl high mark as the top achievers I bet will be in excess of 360 and above.

My view too many OOC children for too few places. I hope we all have a good back up. Our DC will do well wherever they go but we have to continue the encouragement and hard work.

Best of luck to all

[Setanta]

Pessimism/realism is probably called for with the Chelmsford schools.

Probably less so with the Southend ones. These have not filled their In catchment places in the last few years - too few In catchment children passed the 303 threshold. Consequently all four of them have taken above their limit of OOC.

This year the catchment area is slightly bigger - and based on parent's postcodes rather than child's school - for legal reasons. This will have the effect (the schools hope) of encouraging more students from within the new catchment to apply and boost the in catchment numbers, allowing them to fill less places with OOC.

However the catchment changes came too late for any parent in the extended catchment planning a two year tutor programme for their DC. So the effect is likely to be less pronounced this year than subsequently.

[aang]

I'm sure other posters will have more reliable figures than me, but my understanding is that WHSB took in over 60 OOC boys last year. The catchment area has changed this year so the number may be lower as previously OOC may now be in catchment.

The large unknown is to what extent candidates OOC will choose any of the Essex grammar schools as first choice. Many of these candidates also sit the Redbridge exams. A small, but usually amongst higher scoring, take the Essex as practice or backup but are more likely to prefer other schools in London. A small proportion of candidates will prefer an independent school. Your figure of 40% OOC seems high to me, but then someone living in KEGS catchment may be OOC for the Southend schools (and vice versa) so not sure how you are classifying these.

Given so many unknowns and the lack of any reliable source of information, it becomes a wild guessing game. Bottom line, choose the schools in the order of your true preference..

[Minesatea]

Guaranteed numbers of OOC places are:

KEGS - 22
Westcliffe -minimum of 39
SHSB - minimum of 25

[mbab]

Thank you for giving us a better idea of numbers. Hope we will hear from parents who attend the school meetings this week.

I also hear that the extended priority area for southend has better performing primary schools and it is expected that a larger number of children will achieve above the 303

But as from a previous post most of us would have been quite far down the preparation route and continued through to sit the exam.

It will be interesting to see how many OOC children take the exam in future years. Hope forum members will let us know.

My son would have managed last year but the dynamics have changed significantly this year. I strongly believe the cut off for OOC will be much higher than the CSSE prediction. The advantage I have is that I do not have the dilemma of having to wait till March to find out(got to get a positive out of every situation!!!!!). I have to embrace the local comp. Mind you my DS is really pleased that he is going to a local school!!!

[mum of boys]

mbab - Have you totally discounted the grammars? If you are borderline, (I'm not sure what your score is), then you have nothing to lose by putting them on the top of your CAF if you have enough spaces. You may be lucky and get a space and if not, then you will still get the local school that is your backup.

[piemom]

Maybe I'm being really dumb (entirely possible), but will widening the catchment really make loads more people apply? I would have thought that if you thought your child was GS material and there were schools in reasonable commuting distance, you'd apply anyway. Especially since it seems the ic places haven't been filled in recent years. Maybe I'm super naive, but I don't think it's going to make much difference to scores accepted. Am I wearing rose-tinted glasses?

[moved]

Numbers were up marginally this tear on last year. I haven't got the figures to hand and I'm afraid I've got a pile of work to do so haven't got time to search through the threads now.

[piemom]

I seem to remember reading numbers were up by 104 on last year. Of course, we have no idea where those children are based. I think I need to stop reading these posts; they're beginning to depress me. I've gone from feeling my daughter's almost sure of an ooc place at Westcliff (ss 336.861) to having no confidence whatsoever.

[ToadMum]

Not very good at this editing lark, but this is from another current thread...

Straight from CSSE - numbers were up this year by 4%

This year the total number of candidates was 3987. Last year the figure was 3826.

Previous years have been archived and we are not currently in a position to retrieve the information.

I can advise that over the last few years the figure is usually in the region of approximately 3600-3900.