Increase in scores

[clearsky]

Last year few have made some good prediction on the scores, anyone want to have a go at making prediction for this year scores. I think the scores will increase this year with more children sitting for the test, many children scored very highly and said the test was easier than expected. I'm not much good at prediction but have a feeling school such as chb and chg scores will increase by good few points, also other schools have good chance of scores going up too, it would be interesting to know what others think while we wait this week to know which school our children's are going to.

[rabbie burns]

Scores should go up because demand increased and supply for non pupil premium children decreased. The opposite was true last year and scores came down. Due to standardisation these are the two most important variables. Who applies for what school might also have an effect but these two are the key factors.

[quasimodo]

I can agree if we are limiting this discussion to the Birmingham consortium where we have the issue of pupil premium children in the KE foundation schools. It will be difficult to work out the picture on the 2nd March as there will be two scores for each school in the foundation unless parents confirm that it is or is not a pupil premium score when there child is or is not offered a place.

The scores in the Wolverhampton consortium should not be too dissimilar from the previous year.

[walsallmum]

hi all
im praying 320 gets my dd ito WHSG!

panic mode started to kick in again

[rabbie burns]

Sorry guys, yes I only have a view on Birmingham. Anything else is a mystery to me.
In terms of Birmingham its probably best to ignore last year with all the extra places and go back to the scores required in March 2013. Since then there has been a big increase in demand and (after PP places are taken out) at best a small increase in places for other children. Therefore, expect at least the same as 2013 and probably a small increase. Hope I am wrong.

[mum1115]

Rabbie, do you mean a prediction of 240+ say for CHB?
getting more and more nervous for my son as the allocation day gets nearer
x

[blaart]

I think CHB will be 245+

[rabbie burns]

Sorry to sound like doom and gloom. But it was 240 in 2013 and fell last year due to the extra places overall and a very small increase in numbers sitting. Some of these will go to PP children, so 2015 has a picture of not many more places (if any) and around 800 extra candidates sitting since 2013. Therefore I cannot see why it would be less than the 240 of 2013. The more places that go to PP children at Chb the worse it gets. Thats the unknown variable. Still its all speculation and someone did ask!

[HappyRobot]

Sorry to sound like doom and gloom. But it was 240 in 2013 and fell last year due to the extra places overall and a very small increase in numbers sitting.

But it dropped to 237 for the final offer in 2013.

I would say 245 is a realistic estimate for first offers this year.

[rabbie burns]

Gosh this forum can be hard work. I am talking about first offers. There is always a drop. I think 245 might be a bit high.