One Month and Counting

[nervousmom]

A month today and all the waiting will be over (well maybe not for some, who will have a nervous wait)

As mentioned on a previous thread, it seems only PAN will be offered again this year.

I know someone has done predicted scores on another thread, but can we start another here?

I would like to see predictions for offers day and predictions for final offers from waiting list, these figures could then give the ones waiting some idea/hope of whether their score will achieve a place.

[Petitpois]

See below, this was Handsworth Girls waiting list at 4 March 2015. So someone had got offered the last place at a score of 219 on 1/3 and three days later, 4/3, when most will not have confirmed whether to accept or not, there were 9 kids waiting on 219 (decided by nearest to the school), and 72 at 214. waiting list eventually went to 215 (four points below offer day), with 75% of PP places taken in the end (24 out of 32).

223/4/5 is still tight this year, but you can see that the 4 points, usually will equate to about 50 others being below that. I don't want to raise hopes on this because there are are couple of factors to consider.

1) Points keep going up year on year usually by about 3 points.
2) There are 8 extra place on free school meals so that will count for 2 points, for non PP applicants. As the eight places if taken push up non PP minimum scores by at least 2 if not 3 points.
3) More choosing KEVIHS - probably another 120 this year will have put the KE VI High School down, so that will add to pressure a bit.

Still the magic lowest score too look for on 1/3 if we don't get an offer is 225. If they offer as low as that on 1/3, then anyone 223 or above has a very good a chance off the waiting list as there should be at least offers off waiting list down to 223. No Need not worry about Pupil Premium, As I am assuming 100% uptake on that this year, pushing the lowest entry on that to probably 214 from 210.

I am praying this years result are not in effect an stochastic outlier. My prediction and hope is 225. Anything above is a disappointment for those on 220,221,222,223 (which would have got you in last year)

Small pea

[Petitpois]

Hi moderators, can you merge my Handsworth post into this one rather than have another thread???

[MSD]

Do we know how many more children took test in 2015(Interested in Brum) as compared to 2014? This figure will be important to reliably predict the PAN cut-off for each school.

[hermanmunster]

Hi moderators, can you merge my Handsworth post into this one rather than have another thread???

done

[Petitpois]

Hi MSD - my understanding is

2015 for 2016 entry - 5574 sat the exam
2014 for 2015 entry - 5300 sat exam

So an extra 274 to spread across the bell curve. My take on that is as follows. Using standard deviations I predict that 42 kids will be in the 2nd and 3rd standard deviation

In essence

37 more kids in the band 221-239 (2nd standard deviation 13.8%)
5 more Kids in the band 240 - 299 (3rd standard deviation 2%)

You can see from this perspective, spread those numbers across a couple of schools, especially Camp Hill boys and the five places don't make a great deal of difference, given the already high bar for them.

However the second standard deviation means that all the other schools have to accommodate about 6/7 higher scoring kids than in previous years (i.e. in the ranger 221-239). That would account for a couple of points rise in most schools e.g. KEFW, CHG, KEA.

I think additionally you have to assume that places get squeezed from the other end, from greater take up of PP places. The most susceptible to this is KEVIHS with 8 further places likely to be taken by school meals. So add another couple of points and there are strong reasons to think 220 will not do for KEVIHS this year. There is a third factor, the number of applicants to KEVIHS, which dropped significantly in 2015. The only random factor that might have influenced people there is that there was a double shooting incident near the school, two days before CAF applications closed (nothing to do with the school I might add). I am praying it will have put the people from solihull / elsewhere. Talk about clutching at straws though!!!!!!!!!!!! If it has not and there is a good rebound on applications to KEVIHS, this would further frank my prediction of 225.

I think this really does push me into thinking the lowest score on offer day for KEVIHS will be around the 225 mark.

[MSD]

Yes, agreed PP. That would potentially mean 1 or 2 points above last year PAN cut-off. But that also depends on the following:

1) How many extra candidates just took it as a Mock and not interested in Brum.

2) How many scoring between 221-240 will end up going to independent sector? Is there an upward or downward trend towards private schools?

All in all, I would say the cut-off PAN score to go up by a point or two for all schools. However, as discussed before, I think all PP places will be taken up this year and the PP cut-off will go up by around 4 to 5 points for all schools.

[Petitpois]

Yes that all makes sense. Indeed If it tempers my prediction by a point or two I would be ecstatic as I would surely get what I want off the waiting list in that case. Indeed with Wolverhampton girls a near certainty and awaiting the outcome from KEHS, who knows what will happen. Indeed it will feel nice also to free up a place at Wolverhampton Girls for someone else, if we get our preferred option. Someone predicted a big drop in cut offs, but did not have any rhyme or reason to what they were saying (other than a vague suggestion of insider knowledge).

The only factor that has made me a bit nervy on that was the cohort averages were a noticeable couple of % points lower than one might have guessed e.g. instead 55%, i think they were nearer the 53% mark (50% in some cases). On that basis, there might be grounds to make a case for a higher than usual bunching in the 1st standard deviation i.e. scores centred around the 200. could it be that the first standard deviation accounts for 35% of the the population either side i.e. between 200-220 and 180-199.

The additional 0.8% in each score group either side of the 200 - does not sound a lot, but it would account for some 46 kids in 200-220 and 46 kids in 180-199 (92 kids in total .

If you see any sort of drop off in cut scores, I think it would show in my mind that a relatively small number of kids had done outstandingly well this year. Probably better than in previous years.

[quasimodo]

These have been the final cut off points for KE Handsworth in the last five years.

1. 2011- 211
2. 2012- 215
3. 2013- 216
4. 2014- 215 (cut off in early March 2014)Final cut off not known
5. 2015- 215 (cut off in early March 2015- 219)( pupil premium 209)

Based on these and assuming no offers over pan I think shouldn't be too much change other than 1 or 2 point changes possibly from last year.Bear in mind the real impact of pp happened last year on the cut offs.In 2014 we had the increased places.The majority of those increased places taken by pp in 2015.
If I am guessing and it is a guess I would suggest 220 cut off in March 2016 and down to 216 for the final cut off.

[thirdtimemum]

When discussing the number of children taking the exam it's important to remember the queen marys boys ( not sure of girls) have increased the allocation. Some of those children who have taken the Birmingham exam will also have taken the Birmingham one. My personal opinion is that the scores will only go up by one or two marks as they usually do. The only exception may be the handsworth schools ( both boys and girls) as both seem to be increasingly popular.
Only guess work... I'm dreading how the marks are going to look in a few years time when dd and ds take the exam. It looks like bv next year will be taking pp into account too. We also have possibly only one exam that will take place putting even more pressure on the children.
I think maybe it's time to start doing the lottery again!