Dartford DGS and DGGS Cut Off Analysis
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Dartford DGS and DGGS Cut Off Analysis
There has been a lot of discussion about the cut off scores for IC and OOC DGS and DGGS. Here is some additional information that I hope will be helpful to all, or not !
The graph below shows the Dartford Girls IC cumulative pupil scores as a % of the number of entrants that are deemed Grammar. There are two initial observations to make; there has been both an increase and improvement on the Girls scores. 135 girls deemed Grammar in 2015 versus 164 in 2016, an increase of 21%. I understand the IC girls cut off in 2015 was 333 and from the data, there were 111 girls at or above this score in 2015 but in 2016 this number is 130, an increase of 17%. You can see from the graph that much of this increase is in the 366+ range scores; 12 girls scores above 400 this year versus zero in 2015! If we look at what score do you cut off for the top 111 girls as per 2015 final cut off, the score is 340 for 2016. If we look at the top 100 places only, being the spaces at DGGS, the score is c.344. So, it appears that a reasonable upper score for DGGS IC is 344 and this could fall to 340.
http://imgur.com/olY7DgW" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
The graph below is for Dartford Boys IC. Unlike the girls, the spread is fairly static, but the passes are down. 176 boys Grammar in 2015 versus 139 in 2016, a big decline. In 2015 the IC cut off was 351. 100 boys scored 351 or higher in 2015 and in 2016 the same number of 100 is cut at 345. Assuming the parental choice behaviour is the same, it looks like the Boys IC cut off will likely fall to around 345 but it is unlikely that it rises above 351.
http://imgur.com/rIZ4pS8" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
For OOC boys and girls, the picture is much harder to read as locations of pupils is spread over a wider area with more options into Surrey, Essex, Bexley and Bromley and Independents. But what is clear is the massive surge in numbers. The number of OOC Girls deemed Grammar in 2016 is 1050, and increase of 11%, 104 girls over 2015. But that is not all the story. Look at the graph below and you quickly see that the performance of the increase number of girls is materially better than in 2015. The red line, being 2016, deviates up versus 2015, from a score of 339 onwards. In 2015 the DGGS OOC cut off was 362. In 2015, the number of girls at a score 362+ was 408 but in 2016 this a massive 496, an additional 88 girls scored at or above the 2015 DGGS OOC cut off – something must give. If we dial back down the curve to see what score cuts off at the 408 pupils in 2016, the score is 368. So, assuming the top 408 girls choose their schools on a similar basis to 2015, the cut off is 368 but could be higher. There are only about 120 OOC Girls places across Kent (eg DGGS, TOG, Wilmington), so where do the other (408-120) 288 girls go; Essex Grammars, Surrey Grammars, Bromley Grammars, move In-Catchment, Independents. I believe, in the past, quite a lot have gone into the Independents.
http://imgur.com/MigRzI3" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
For Boys, there were 1032 Grammar passes in 2015 versus 1138 in 2016, an increase of 106 or 10%. The graph shows a results performance improvement, but not as pronounced as the girls. In 2015 the DGS OOC cut off was 375 and 353 boys score at this or more. In 2016, the number at or above 375 is 410, an additional 57 boys at or above the 2015 DGS cut off. To dial back and remove that surplus of 57 over 2015, the score increases to c.380. Again, this assumes the same school selection behaviour by parents is as per 2015.
There are only about 150 OOC Boys places across Kent (eg DGS, Judd, Skinners, Wilmington), so where do the other (410-150) 260 boys go; as above, it will usually be Essex Grammars, Surrey Grammars, Bromley Grammars move In-Catchment, Independents. Quite a lot have in the past gone into the Independents.
http://imgur.com/hvvYe7X" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
However, the assumption that many have made to say that parental school selection behaviour will be the same in 2016 as for 2015, is unlikely to be true. Why is there a bulge of applicants this year; is it because more parents are looking at Grammar schools as an alternative to Independents; is it because there was a 11% birth surge for this school year cohort (in 2005-6, the actual birth increase was 4% over 2004, so the birth surge is not the sole driver). What does this mean; are there more state school children that will choose a Grammar over an Independent; are there more kids in Independent school who will move to Grammar school. I know of an Independent school where 80% of the ‘A*’ class have all taken the Kent, Bromley and Bexley tests. All parents of these children are not doing this for fun – they want to move their kids to a Grammar school. All these kids are high scorers in the 11+. Why is behaviour changing; BREXIT. There is a huge amount of uncertainty in the London jobs market, in particular, the City. These job losses have already started.
So, what happens if the behaviour of this excess 288 girls and 260 boys changes ?
If 10% of each group choose differently and select Kent versus any other option (ie mainly versus Independent), then the DGGS cut off will likely increase from the above 368 to 369, at 20% this moves to 372, at 30% to 375 and 50% to 381. For DGS the same % changing their behaviour results in the following moves; 10% 383, 20% 386, 30% 388, 50% 393.
In conclusion, all things being equal, as rationalised by others, the DGGS cut off is c.368 and the DGS cut off is c.380. But I do not believe that the behaviour will be the same, there is an air off difference. There is BREXIT uncertainty. As such the DGGS OOC cut off could reasonably rise to 381 and the DGS OOC cut off could rise to 393.
This article has probably not helped you ! Sorry ! I have on the one hand said that, school selection behaviour being the same, the OOC cut off is marginally up from last year at 368 and 381 for DGGS and DG respectively. But, if you have a DD marginally above 368 and a DS marginally above 381, and school selection behaviour does change (which I can see around me that it will) you should accept that the cut off could increase to 381 and 393 respectively. You should consider having a Plan B school or if you are adamant that it must be Dartford, then you should consider moving to become an IC applicant where such high scores would guarantee you a Grammar school place at either DGGS or DGS.
The graph below shows the Dartford Girls IC cumulative pupil scores as a % of the number of entrants that are deemed Grammar. There are two initial observations to make; there has been both an increase and improvement on the Girls scores. 135 girls deemed Grammar in 2015 versus 164 in 2016, an increase of 21%. I understand the IC girls cut off in 2015 was 333 and from the data, there were 111 girls at or above this score in 2015 but in 2016 this number is 130, an increase of 17%. You can see from the graph that much of this increase is in the 366+ range scores; 12 girls scores above 400 this year versus zero in 2015! If we look at what score do you cut off for the top 111 girls as per 2015 final cut off, the score is 340 for 2016. If we look at the top 100 places only, being the spaces at DGGS, the score is c.344. So, it appears that a reasonable upper score for DGGS IC is 344 and this could fall to 340.
http://imgur.com/olY7DgW" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; The graph below is for Dartford Boys IC. Unlike the girls, the spread is fairly static, but the passes are down. 176 boys Grammar in 2015 versus 139 in 2016, a big decline. In 2015 the IC cut off was 351. 100 boys scored 351 or higher in 2015 and in 2016 the same number of 100 is cut at 345. Assuming the parental choice behaviour is the same, it looks like the Boys IC cut off will likely fall to around 345 but it is unlikely that it rises above 351.
http://imgur.com/rIZ4pS8" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;For OOC boys and girls, the picture is much harder to read as locations of pupils is spread over a wider area with more options into Surrey, Essex, Bexley and Bromley and Independents. But what is clear is the massive surge in numbers. The number of OOC Girls deemed Grammar in 2016 is 1050, and increase of 11%, 104 girls over 2015. But that is not all the story. Look at the graph below and you quickly see that the performance of the increase number of girls is materially better than in 2015. The red line, being 2016, deviates up versus 2015, from a score of 339 onwards. In 2015 the DGGS OOC cut off was 362. In 2015, the number of girls at a score 362+ was 408 but in 2016 this a massive 496, an additional 88 girls scored at or above the 2015 DGGS OOC cut off – something must give. If we dial back down the curve to see what score cuts off at the 408 pupils in 2016, the score is 368. So, assuming the top 408 girls choose their schools on a similar basis to 2015, the cut off is 368 but could be higher. There are only about 120 OOC Girls places across Kent (eg DGGS, TOG, Wilmington), so where do the other (408-120) 288 girls go; Essex Grammars, Surrey Grammars, Bromley Grammars, move In-Catchment, Independents. I believe, in the past, quite a lot have gone into the Independents.
http://imgur.com/MigRzI3" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;For Boys, there were 1032 Grammar passes in 2015 versus 1138 in 2016, an increase of 106 or 10%. The graph shows a results performance improvement, but not as pronounced as the girls. In 2015 the DGS OOC cut off was 375 and 353 boys score at this or more. In 2016, the number at or above 375 is 410, an additional 57 boys at or above the 2015 DGS cut off. To dial back and remove that surplus of 57 over 2015, the score increases to c.380. Again, this assumes the same school selection behaviour by parents is as per 2015.
There are only about 150 OOC Boys places across Kent (eg DGS, Judd, Skinners, Wilmington), so where do the other (410-150) 260 boys go; as above, it will usually be Essex Grammars, Surrey Grammars, Bromley Grammars move In-Catchment, Independents. Quite a lot have in the past gone into the Independents.
http://imgur.com/hvvYe7X" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;However, the assumption that many have made to say that parental school selection behaviour will be the same in 2016 as for 2015, is unlikely to be true. Why is there a bulge of applicants this year; is it because more parents are looking at Grammar schools as an alternative to Independents; is it because there was a 11% birth surge for this school year cohort (in 2005-6, the actual birth increase was 4% over 2004, so the birth surge is not the sole driver). What does this mean; are there more state school children that will choose a Grammar over an Independent; are there more kids in Independent school who will move to Grammar school. I know of an Independent school where 80% of the ‘A*’ class have all taken the Kent, Bromley and Bexley tests. All parents of these children are not doing this for fun – they want to move their kids to a Grammar school. All these kids are high scorers in the 11+. Why is behaviour changing; BREXIT. There is a huge amount of uncertainty in the London jobs market, in particular, the City. These job losses have already started.
So, what happens if the behaviour of this excess 288 girls and 260 boys changes ?
If 10% of each group choose differently and select Kent versus any other option (ie mainly versus Independent), then the DGGS cut off will likely increase from the above 368 to 369, at 20% this moves to 372, at 30% to 375 and 50% to 381. For DGS the same % changing their behaviour results in the following moves; 10% 383, 20% 386, 30% 388, 50% 393.
In conclusion, all things being equal, as rationalised by others, the DGGS cut off is c.368 and the DGS cut off is c.380. But I do not believe that the behaviour will be the same, there is an air off difference. There is BREXIT uncertainty. As such the DGGS OOC cut off could reasonably rise to 381 and the DGS OOC cut off could rise to 393.
This article has probably not helped you ! Sorry ! I have on the one hand said that, school selection behaviour being the same, the OOC cut off is marginally up from last year at 368 and 381 for DGGS and DG respectively. But, if you have a DD marginally above 368 and a DS marginally above 381, and school selection behaviour does change (which I can see around me that it will) you should accept that the cut off could increase to 381 and 393 respectively. You should consider having a Plan B school or if you are adamant that it must be Dartford, then you should consider moving to become an IC applicant where such high scores would guarantee you a Grammar school place at either DGGS or DGS.
Last edited by MullerMan on Sun Oct 23, 2016 10:50 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Sally-Anne
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Re: Dartford DGS and DGGS Cut Off Analysis
Hi MullerMan, and welcome!
Your images haven't posted correctly for some reason, so I have added weblinks to them as well.
Sally-Anne
Your images haven't posted correctly for some reason, so I have added weblinks to them as well.
Sally-Anne
Re: Dartford DGS and DGGS Cut Off Analysis
Sally-Anne
My apologies and thank you for fixing my technical ineptness
Regards
My apologies and thank you for fixing my technical ineptness
Regards
Re: Dartford DGS and DGGS Cut Off Analysis
My son got 391 and we are OOC..., do you mean we will not have a chance with DGS at all?
Re: Dartford DGS and DGGS Cut Off Analysis
Hi,
Thank you for your detailed analysis. Are you assuming that all independents are from out of area for DGS? I searched the Education database and I couldn't find any independent schools in Dartford.
Thank you for your detailed analysis. Are you assuming that all independents are from out of area for DGS? I searched the Education database and I couldn't find any independent schools in Dartford.
Re: Dartford DGS and DGGS Cut Off Analysis
Yes, that's right. I am talking about Independent schools outside the Dartford catchment as being relevant to the behavior of OOC children choices. OOC kids that are at an Independent but have taken the 11+, could be at schools in as wide an area as Dulwich, Croydon, other Kent, Blackheath, Bromley. This could be through schools as well as Prep schools.
Re: Dartford DGS and DGGS Cut Off Analysis
I see. However, many children from independents take the tests as a free mock to give them the experience of performing under pressure. However, I do agree with you about the possibility of there being more children from independents going to grammar schools due to the uncertainty that Brexit has produced. How ironic that those who voted for Brexit could find themselves displaced in the grammar school arena.
Re: Dartford DGS and DGGS Cut Off Analysis
Yes, for some kids it may be used as a mock, especially those in a Prep. But that's unlikely to be the case for kids in a through-school, like the ones referred to in my initial post. Agree, it will be ironic !
Re: Dartford DGS and DGGS Cut Off Analysis
Why wouldn't it be used as a mock if you are at an all through school? For the independent schools I know of, their own primary school children must take the same entrance test for secondary. I know parents who had no intention of taking a grammar school place, but who wanted their children to be prepared and possibly get a scholarship if they achieved a high score. Please remember that these scholarships can go up to 50% and that they are not means tested.
Re: Dartford DGS and DGGS Cut Off Analysis
Salsa
My analysis is giving a range depending on changed behaviour. Readers are welcome to make their own judgement. Not all private schools do exams at the end of the Junior school for transfer to senior, e.g. Bromley High does not appear to have such a test. Scholarships are based on performance over the year, not just an exam.
My analysis is giving a range depending on changed behaviour. Readers are welcome to make their own judgement. Not all private schools do exams at the end of the Junior school for transfer to senior, e.g. Bromley High does not appear to have such a test. Scholarships are based on performance over the year, not just an exam.