So erm who's done their online LEA??!

[reeyah]

Mike that's a much better way of looking at the figures actually! Maths was never my forte, so what is the competition in more realistic terms???

[um]

I don't think we can even look at it simply in terms of numbers applying either - for example the number of children applying for FW is quite a bit higher than the number applying for KECHB - even taking into account that fact that KECHB is a smaller school.

Yet the 'pass' score required for entry into KECHB remains higher than for FW.

[mike1880]

Total number applying is irrelevant, um, it's all in the first preferences (well, almost all - Five Ways is a special case as I've said before). Camp Hill Boys has way the highest qualifiying score because it gets 8+ first preferences for every place (more than 50% of all boys applying to KE put CHB as first preference).

edit: chances of a GS place in B'ham. In overall terms, there are 11 applicants for every 3 places (the same ratio applies across the West Mids - but it's higher for KE places, nearly 14 applicants for every 3 places). However, each child's ability has some bearing so the actual chance varies for each child!

Mike

[KenR]

Hi All

You can actually work out far more accurately your chance of success by looking at the average Age Standardised pass score per paper. I have published this in the following sticky:-

http://www.elevenplusexams.co.uk/forum/ ... =11&t=7148

The average pass score per paper roughly follows the usual normal distribution.

Thus the lowest average pass score last year was 104 at Sutton Coldfield girls. 104 is the 60th percentile, thus 40 girls were successful out of every 100 who applied and were considered for entry taking in their CAF preferences. This equates to a 1 in 2.5 chance of success.

Other figures are:-

Sutton Coldfield Girls 1 in 2.5 success ratio
KE Handsworth Girls 1 in 2.9
Bishops Vesey 1 in 3.3
KE Aston 1 in 3.6
KE Camp Hill Girls 1 in 4.3
KE 5-Ways 1 in 4.6
KE Camp Hill Boys 1 in 7.14

Hope this helps

Should add tough competition - but as Mike says not quite as bad as the Mail article would suggest

[xyzzy]

Hi All

You can actually work out far more accurately your chance of success

It's not really "your chance", it's the population chance as a whole. A well-prepared child achieving consistently at an appropriate level has a better chance than that; a child entered at the last minute who is struggling in a poor-achieving school has a much worse chance than that. It's the same issue as people who assume that the different overall outcomes of schools reflect the difference there would be in one particular child's results were they to attend one school or the other. You need to know what the success rate for children like yours is. That's much harder to find.

If you're not put off by analysis of cancer survival statistics, the best work on the issue of individual prognosis versus population prognosis is Stephen Jay Gould's magisterial and hugely moving essay "The Median is not the Message".

[mike1880]

Entirely agree. As I said, it very much depends on the individual child. However, one might instinctively suspect that gaining entry to Camp Hill Boys is somewhat more of a lottery than gaining entry to a school that takes applicants from a fatter portion of the curve.

Mike

[reeyah]

Very interesting! KenR, that was very clear!
Thank u

[no_ball]

can one conclude then 93x7.14 people put KECHB first on their form or is it more than that?