Will the cut-off score for more popular KE grammars go up?

[MSD]

I thought this is how the process worked but could be wrong.

1. Each school tells the admissions authority how many places the school has on offer. (PAN + offers above PAN)

2. The admissions authority then feeds this information in addition to candidate test scores, preferences, distance from the school into the computer system they use.

3. Based on above information the system works out whether the candidate should be offered the place.

4. Only after the above is done the school would know the rank and score of the last candidate to receive an offer.

5. And from the above they deduce the cut-off score for that year. So there is no way a school can decide what the cut-off should be.

MSD

[newbiemum]

Im thinking more popular ones 3 or 4 points, traditionally lower scoring 5 or 6 point increases. To take into account additional candidates, and knowing the scores this year will change the way CAFS were potentially filled out. Those wanting a grammer will travel further etc where as in the past they may not have put say AS or BV so i think they may increase more in line with the others? I don't think any more than above though from what other posts have said previousy regarding the maths! Hope they don't anyway!!

[Okanagan]

If 4,600 (an increase of 700 on last year) is accurate.
And the total number of places is the same as last year

Code: Select all

School             # of places available  # of applicants as first choice    Ratio of first choice places:applicants    Total number of applicants (all choices)    Ratio of applicants per place
Bishop Vesey's Grammar      124                    241                                    1.94                                         1141                                     9.20
Handsworth Grammar          130                    197                                    1.51                                         1059                                     8.14
King Edward Aston           120                    348                                    2.90                                         1427                                    11.80
King Edward C/Hill Boys     124                    677                                    5.45                                         1208                                     9.74
King Edward C/Hill Girls    147                    636                                    4.32                                         1203                                     8.18
King Edward Five Ways       175                    565                                    3.22                                         1862                                    10.64
King Edward Handsworth      136                    469                                    3.44                                         1283                                     9.43
Sutton Coldfield Girls      150                    366                                    2.44                                         1206                                     8.04

So 1106 places, with 3499 applicants having one of them as first choice.

It is worth noting that in 2012 the Birmingham exam would be the first one to be taken, with Warwickshire and Walsall being (a week or so) later, compared to 2011 when the Birmingham test was after the Warwickshire one. The numbers sitting Warwickshire fell this year (1817 compared to 1930 the previous year), while Birmingham went up - suggesting that the free mock effect is actually quite pronounced, and not all of those extra 700 will actually be looking for Birmingham places.

To take a very simplistic model - if we assume that the 3499 applicants out of approx 3900 (anyone got a more accurate figure?) taking the 2011 tests were equally spread across the score range then approx 31.6% of those who wanted a place would get one. If we were looking at a single standardised score (not aggregated standard scores as is actually the case), that would equate to a standardised score of 100+(0.48*15)=107.2. If we assumed that 500 of the extra 700 were actually looking for places this year that would mean places for 27.7% of applicants - equivalent to a single standardised score of (100+(0.59*15)=108.9.

It's a little more complex than just doubling the difference when you're dealing with two aggregated standardised scores (and we've made an assumption about the number of extra applicants anyway) but 2 * (108.9-107.2) i.e. 3.4 would give you a fair idea of the amount of variance in scores the extra applicants would cause on average. Obviously this might vary from school to school.

[MSD]

Thanks Okanagan!

Ever since I read this statement on one of the KECHB's newsletters, I've been baffled...

There were 9 boys on the cut off score who were not offered a place due to large amount of entrants (4,600 and increase of 700 on last year). There may be a decision to raise the cut off score for next year.

DIY Mum, Do you have a link to this newsletter?

MSD

[DIY Mum]

MSD, only an email and that's all it says on this issue.

And there's me thinking that the marks would stay at 234 for CHB, and others may go down a little.

[MSD]

Thanks DIY Mum!

I looked through their website and the most recent newsletter is from December 2012. But I don't see any information regarding cut-off scores in that.

Would appreciate if you can share the content of the newsletter or PM it to me.

MSD

[MSD]

Ever since I read this statement on one of the KECHB's newsletters, I've been baffled...

There were 9 boys on the cut off score who were not offered a place due to large amount of entrants (4,600 and increase of 700 on last year). There may be a decision to raise the cut off score for next year.

I have read the above statement a few time since yesterday and quite puzzled like DIY mum. The statement could imply two things :

1. The cut-off was 234 same as the last year and they have 9 on that cut-off who have not been offered a place.

2. The cut-off was X and they have 9 on that cut-off that have not been offered a place. But they have decided the cut-off will be increased for the purpose of reporting and reported as possibly X + 1 in any future letters to parents.

Any thoughts?

[KenR]

There were 9 boys on the cut off score who were not offered a place due to large amount of entrants (4,600 and increase of 700 on last year). There may be a decision to raise the cut off score for next year.

The KECHB Head was historically reluctant to have too many on the waiting list and therefore always significantly over offered. ie. make circa 125+ offers for a PAN of 96. The reason being that in previous years when they made a lower number of offers and the waiting list kicked in they found that parents had already made other arrangements (with indies or stuck with their 2nd or 3rd choices).

I think all they are saying is that they know parents equate the score of the last candidate as a pass score and are frustrated that distance factors kick in for this score. So I think all they are saying is that they will round up the pass score so that all boys who achieved that score will be offered a place. In this way it will appear fairer.

Don't forget that the lowest pass score for an individual KE school is set by the Head - it's not a KE Foundation decision. Different KE schools have different strategies.More work though and delays for the school if they have to go to the waiting list because they have to make a formal request for the next candidate to make an offer, and then that candidate may reject so they have to go back again... and again

For info, historically there are typically about 14-16 candidates for each score at the pass point

[MSD]

That makes sense.

Don't forget that the lowest pass score for an individual KE school is set by the Head - it's not a KE Foundation decision

How does this work KenR? Let's say the KECHB head decides the lowest pass score for this year is 235. What happens if they can't fill the required PAN number with the candidates on or above this score? Will they then reduce the lowest score and start picking from the waiting list?

I was under the impression the lowest score to get in is really dictated by the number of places available at school (PAN + over offers), number of candidates taking the test, the preference order on the form and the distance from school.

MSD

[KenR]

How does this work KenR? Let's say the KECHB head decides the lowest pass score for this year is 235. What happens if they can't fill the required PAN number with the candidates on or above this score? Will they then reduce the lowest score and start picking from the waiting list?

Correct - if this happens then they will go back to the KE Foundation and request additional candidates from the waiting list which may drop the pass mark 1 or 2 marks in time. This has happened historically many times. This is one of the reasons why there is some debate about the pass mark (in the sticky) - parents are told one thing on the 1st March but this may drift downwards