Now that sending in the forms will be a distant memory, it may be a more sensitive time to speculate on the likely cut-off score for out of catchment entry to Adam's Grammar.
Using the mean of 300 and SD of 37 (and a Normal Distribution curve) suggested some time ago by turtlegirl, I have assumed that under the old system a likely cut off score would have been 329, assuming 500 'serious' original applications (i.e. excluding those who were simply practising for Birmingham) and 200 actual first preferences (both of these assumptions may be wrong as this proposed lowest score is about 5 points higher than it appears to have been last year when there was also apparently less than 200 first preferences).
However, with the catchment area, I have speculated (on no particular basis of fact!) that an additional 25 places will go to in-catchment boys
and this means that the Out of Area score required would be 336/337. If the 25 additional places to in-catchment boys figure is exaggerated then the lowest score could be closer to 334 or less. On the basis of a very wide margin for error (and incorrect assumptions), no one should give up hope with a score of 330 or above.
Does that sound right to more seasoned observers/statisticians?
Of course, thanks to the enlightened strategy of not actually informing parents of scores this year
, many parents will be in the dark and this speculation of no great interest!