11 Plus Exams Forum

I guess that once parents receive results on 14 October (or thereabouts) there'll be some discussion about next year's potential cut-off scores.

I thought I'd note that at the BV open evening this week, the headmaster said he expected BV cut off scores to rise next year to 220+.
This is because BV will now be allocating 20% of places to PP pupils, as the KE schools have done these past two years.
Stats show that BV tends to admit few PP pupils so this change will have a statistical impact.
I also think that, as the numbers taking the test increase and the popularity of BV as a school increases, the cut-off would have increased anyway.
I'd call 226 a 'safe' score for BV but will be happy to be proved wrong on 1 March!

It would still depend on whether there were enough PP applicants to fill that 20%. It makes sense that cut-off scores would go up but would they really go up enough to surpass KEA?

I am not so sure. I would guess at 223-224. I would be happy to be proved wrong too!

I don't know the PAN for BV but I seem to recall that when PP was introduced for the others, it dropped the previous year (as they added the extra seats) and then rose the following year (5 points seems to come to mind) as they introduced the PP places, so 226 does not look exceptionally high given it was 220 this year.

I presume there is no additional class for BV, so the 20% comes straight out existing places and the impact all happens in the year of introduction.

Factors that might drive additional volatility - some of the grammars have relatively stable year on year application numbers compared to others. I am not sure if BV is one that has more of a wobble in its year on year applications.

Second is that I am not sure of the relative impact of 20% PP on a smaller PAN vs a larger PAN. E.g. 20% of 120 is 24 PP places allocated vs 180 I think is 36. You would think it makes no difference, but it might.

I wonder how much there is a displacement factor. It surely DOESN'T just impact cut offs for BV, it must have an impact on waiting lists elsewhere. I wonder if anyone not making the cut for BV, will then have say KEA as their second choice, thus increasing pressure on that schools cut offs.

Umsusu, my guess is that there will be substantially full take up. There is much much more outreach and awareness of PP as a possibility across the board now.

There was a big drop in KEA scores from 2015 to 2016 (224 to 221), and BV for 2016 was 220, so there is already only a 1 point difference.

I think there are a lot of applicants who live in the Lichfield direction that put BV down as an option, but would not consider travelling to KEA because of the distance. It would be interesting to know what BV are setting the PP level at to accept entry - are they having a minimum score needed as a qualifying score for entry?

For 2016 entry BV had 1009 applications and KEA 1097, so they are fairly similar in popularity (this is not just 1st choice applications, but was included somewhere on a CAF).

I agree with UmSusu that there would need to be enough PP applicants applying. Not wanting to offend anyone, but the 'catchment' area for BV is relatively wealthy with a smaller proportion of PP than other parts of the city. It may take a couple of years for the PP change to take effect and be 100% filled.

It will be interesting to see how it plays out, but would also go for 223. Will be watching closely as DS2 sits the exam next September.

Good luck to all who are waiting.

Crossed with PP

Just to clarify..I wasn't suggesting the cut off would be 226 but that 226 would be what I'd see as a safe score for the school.

Lowest entry for KEVIHS 2014 was 215 (off waiting list) and the lowest entry this year is 220(off waiting list).

I really didn't believe that a cut off day score for 2015 (219) would not even get you in off the waiting list this year. At this point last year we were hoping for a 218 score in the belief that scores would edge up a little and that 218 would do the trick off the waiting list. That just wasn't to be.

226 does seem a safe level, but safe and certain are not entirely the same thing

Petitpois wrote:I don't know the PAN for BV but I seem to recall that when PP was introduced for the others, it dropped the previous year (as they added the extra seats) and then rose the following year (5 points seems to come to mind) as they introduced the PP places, so 226 does not look exceptionally high given it was 220 this year.

I think PP implied this - but for clarity

2014 entry KE Birmingham grammars expanded places (no PP numbers instituted) + If memory serves new 'tutor proof' exam format - scores dropped across all schools (largely because 20-30 more candidates were admitted but parents didn't find that out until after school preference form deadline I think)

2015 entry 20% - 25% places reserved for PP pupils (in some schools not all places taken up) - so this was back to the original pre-2014 number of places with the expansion places reserved for PP - scores went up.

2016 entry - third year of this style of exam format + increase in number of candidates taking exam (population bulge in children now starting to enter the system) - scores mostly went up - but did go down at CHBs

2017 entry predictions? Exam format better understood by tutors/ savvy forum using DIY parents + increased number of candidates - fair to presume a 'safe score" is around 5 points better than last year's cut offs (PP or Not PP). Having said that we only just pipped CHGs with that margin due to distance.

Polishing up your sparkly my little pony for the FO also may help - sorry in-joke from last year's anxious parents awaiting good news and frankly grasping at straws. I'm still campaigning for a sparkly pony emoticon moderators!

In respect of WGHS for 2015 entry the cut off on offers day was 321 and fell to 318.This year the cut off was 314 and appears to have fallen to 311.This was a surprise to me and my only explanation for it was the many very bright children who took the consortium exam as a mock but had no intention of taking a place.This year when the exam date changed to after the Birmingham exams and after the dates of many exams across the country the numbers taking the exams were down.In both 2015 and 2016 the Pan was 145 as it is this year.However this year it would not surprise me if the cut off returns to nearer the 2015 levels.However there are no certainties and since I didn't foresee the fall between 2015 and 2016 I could be equally wrong for 2017.

For WGHS

I think it was the maths that had a big effect on the cut off. This is because you had to get a much higher raw % in verbal and non verbal to achieve the same standardised score that you would get with a much lower raw % on the maths paper. The distribution of scores might be much less smooth due to the cohort size. That might be a reason

The school had 581 preferences of which 352 were 1st preferences for this years entrants. I am sure that 581 was a slight increase on the previous year too.

Does anyone have any thoughts on the likelihood of KEA score going up too?

I like BV but just don't see DS3 travelling to Sutton Coldfield on his own.

If the BV cut-off score is likely to go up due to the allocation of PP places then that will mean that BV will probably end up with a higher cut-off than KEA? I am really hoping that DS3 can make KEA but I have no idea if he can make it - he likes to keep me on my toes that one!