Can anyone take an educated guess as to what the cut off score for a pp child might be for bv? I know it's their first year for pp, but do you think it could be similar to KEA?
When the others introduced PP, they didn't fill up the full compliment on the first year. So my (I am not sure it qualifies as educated) guess is this year will be the same for BV. Implications of that for me are (but always DYOR)
1) Likely PP cut off will be the same as the qualifying score as not all pupil premium places will be taken up
2) If not all PP places are taken up, then this reduces upward pressure on the main cut off. Example say BV get 20 PP applications for places with scores ranging from 230 - 209 (or whatever the qualifying score is), then the remaining unclaimed places are released to the main waiting list (thus lowering the cut off).
If pupil premium was 100% taken up this year, then that scenario would most likely feed into the scenario where the BV cut off pushes up towards the 226 people have been suggesting.
Problem with all this is it's utterly impossible to know what the pattern of applications will be and the mix of socio demographics. If no one on pupil premium applies, there could other things equal be a fairly limited impact on the main cut off's and 222 or something could get you in.
But I will stick with my guess, that something like 50% of places will go to pupil premium and that will suppress the extent of any rise in the main cut off's