Proposed admission Criteria B'ham Grammars 2020

[KenR]

There has been quite debate on the Birmingham Forum about what the Admission percentages are likely to be for each Admissions Category and whether these will vary significantly for each respective Grammar school. I sent an email and received a response from the KE Foundation which they are happy for me to share on the forum.

Question
In order to achieve a fair/optimum allocation of places for each respective Admissions Category at each KE Grammar, I’m sure the Foundation must have done significant research and analysis in deciding both
a. the sizes/ward boundary catchments for each respective KE grammar and
b. the minimum pass mark for Non PP candidates in the catchment area

I understand that application profiles & numbers for each KE grammar change from year to year and, of course, your proposed Sept 2020 Admissions changes are bound to impact these Admission profiles further once introduced, however I would be grateful if the KE Academy Trust could share further information regarding your “best guess” estimates for the percentages of successful applications in each of the 5 Application Categories for Sept 2020 and whether they are likely to vary significantly between each respective KE grammar?

I understand that there will be a number of unknowns associated with these estimates and so would appreciate if you could also detail the assumptions that you made in calculating these estimates?

In the event that some of the Out of Catchment (OOC) parents fears materialise and the percentage of Admissions Category 5 (OOC) is far lower than expected, would the KE Academy consider increasing the 220 minimum Non PP pass mark in future years to achieve the KE Academies ideal Admissions ratio?

Response
Thank you for your email. Please ensure any comments and feedback you and your forum participants wish to leave on the proposals are submitted by 7 January 2019 via https://www.birminghambeheard.org.uk/pe ... ents-2020/

The catchment areas have been devised using previous admissions data to try to ensure an equitable distribution of both Pupil Premium (achieving 205+) and non-Pupil Premium (achieving 220+) applicants across each of the schools. The priority score of 220 has been proposed by analysing admissions data and is, based on the data available to us, the score that we can be as confident as possible that all applicants achieving the score will be able to access their catchment school. As with all school admission criteria, there will always be a cut-off point at which a school fills, and we can therefore offer no guarantee that all applicants within category 4 will be offered, likewise offer no “best guess” within any of the categories given the amount of unknown factors such as size of cohort taking the test, home address of applicants, number of Pupil Premium applicants etc. Should the number of applicants within catchment achieving the priority score increase significantly, the priority score may be reviewed.

Grammar School Admissions

The Schools of King Edward VI in Birmingham

My initial reading of the response was that in setting the catchments and Non PP minimum scores they had not considered trying to reserve even a small number of places for Category 5 Application (Non PP out of catchment) - so I asked a follow-on question.

Question 2
.....Your email response seems to imply that in setting the Category 4 requirements no attempt was made to try to ensure even a small percentage of places are available for Category 5 (Non PP - out of catchment) applicants. Viz there may very few places, in any, available for Category 5 applicants.

Can you clarify if my interpretation of your email response is correct?

If my interpretation is correct, then I think it highly likely that you would get very few parents applying from outside the catchment areas given the low percentage probability of success.

For your information, below is a summary of part of my Admissions Consultation response:

“Whilst I am generally supported of the Admissions Framework and in particular increasing the percentage of PP places available from 20% to 25%, I do think it is unreasonable if the vast majority of other places is only allocated to Category 4 Admissions (viz. Birmingham catchment area candidates only).
Given that the KE Foundation has always historically offered some places to candidates living outside the Birmingham city Boundaries, I think it would only be fair and equitable to try to set the Category 4 Admissions score such that say about 10% of places were still available for Category 5 Admissions candidates.
My suggestion would be a ratio of 25%:65%:10% for Categories 2/3, Category 4 & Category 5 Admissions respectively.”

Response 2
Thank you for your email and the comments sent via the consultation which have been received.

The proposals have been drawn up in a way to offer as far as possible, certainty to PP applicants within catchment that they would be offered their catchment school if scoring 205+. You will note category 2 does not have a limit of 25%, so there could in theory be more than 25% places at the schools taken if there were enough PP applicants within catchment achieving the qualifying score.

Based on admissions data we are confident that all applicants achieving the priority score of 220 would be able to access their catchment school, however, we can offer no guarantee due to the number of factors that can influence this. We do anticipate places would still be available to offer to applicants within category 5, though this would vary from school to school. To set a percentage of places available in category 5 like you suggest would mean the potential to offer places from this category before all applicants within a higher category (4) have been offered, e.g. a high scoring child living in Leicester could be offered before a high scoring child living within catchment, something the proposals set out to address. You will note that our neighbouring grammar schools in Warwickshire do not hold back a set number/percentage of places for out of catchment/priority applicants. As most applicants (depending on their local authority) have six preferences, we still believe we would receive a high number of applications from those outside of the respective catchment areas, particularly as there would very likely be places to be offered from category 5.

We have not shared any information with you that is confidential or that we have not provided to other people, and want all those interested in the proposals to engage with the consultation.

Regards

Grammar School Admissions

The Schools of King Edward VI in Birmingham

Hope this helps to clarify a few points

[MSD]

Thanks for that Ken and very kind of you to take the time to write to them. As we suspected, even foundation is not sure if places will be available for category 5. I suspect not, unless an unusually high percentage of bright OOC candidates sit the test.

[kenyancowgirl]

I am reading that they actually say they think it would be very likely that there will be offers made to Cat 5. I think that is more than “not sure if places will be available”, MSD - what are you reading?!

[MSD]

KCG - yes, they mention there would likely be places offered from category 5, but they also mention there is no guarantee that all applicants within category 4 will be offered. Hence, they aren’t sure either.

[kenyancowgirl]

Being as how the “no guarantee” is followed by the expectation there will be places for Cat 5, I think it is fair to conclude that the no guarantee is the general caveat that has always existed - even when someone is ranked in the top 10, we would say as long as you list the school first etc you should be ok (with the should implying there is no guarantee!)

I would be very surprised if there wasn’t Cat 5 places - although I do expect those to be higher scorers than currently. This is said in the interest of balance, in an attempt to try and allay some of the fears of parents who do still have a horse in the race, as some seem keen to stir fears a bit - yes there will be change under the proposals, but overall they do appear to being made for the right reasons.

[MSD]

On the contrary, I will be surprised if many places were offered to OOC. If we consider similar numbers as last year sit the test, approx. 25% of those will score 220+. That will give us around 1500 candidates above 220+.

Now let's look at how many places are available across all the grammars that fall under KE foundation. The last time I looked, there were around 675 places available across the 6 schools for non-PP candidates. I would be very surprised, if those 675, out of the 1500 that qualify, do not come under a catchment.

Can someone please confirm the total number of non-PP places available across all KE schools?

[kenyancowgirl]

Those in catchment should have priority - as should PP. Yes there are some who fall outside - but in some cases they still have access to very good schools - and will still be able to apply. There will be some losers (as with any change) but the winners are the right winners (pp and catchment for generally lower travel times).

Change is scary - I get that - but the system can’t carry on the way it is - for one the numbers taking the test must be costing the LA a ridiculous amount, and the Pap numbers getting in are still quite low. I wish Birmingham luck with it all.

[nervousmom]

Birmingham does need to change it's admissions process, but not in the way they are proposing.

I have heard of a case where a child living a good distance out of Birmingham has a place at a KE school. They live with Birmingham based family members in the week and go back to parents at the weekend!

This is totally unfair and unacceptable.

These schools should be available to those children living in the west Midlands.

Those people who now find themselves in a good catchment area will be extremely pleased with these proposed changes.

There are those who are not effected by these changes in any way, or have no younger children to go through it. So it's very easy for them to agree too.

Then there are those of us who will be greatly effected because we don't happen to have a Birmingham address.

The new catchments will be meaningless because people will find a way round it:-

- buying a new house in a catchemt and moving
- renting properties in the catchment, but not actually moving in
- using an address of family member or a friend.
- applying for and getting PP even though not entitled. (People will Find a way)

All of the above will happen and when it does, the 220 score will eventually increase, basically bringing us full circle to where we are now.

Forget the catchments and go with a 10 mile priority circle round each school.

[kenyancowgirl]

Perhaps they should introduce a priority circle round each school but also introduce that you have to elect just 1 or 2 GS's that you will apply to if you are in catchment for more than one (as I think there would be areas that would still pretty much be able to apply to all of them with a 10 mile circle?) This would limit the number of children charging past GS to get to one across town and allow them to use distance as the secondary decider after the 220 (which would stop the perceived wisdom that it should still be CH or nothing)

Sadly with any system, there are parents who fraudulently bend the rules to suit themselves - it would be naive to assume that Warwickshire doesn't have people who "move" themselves into priority - Bucks certainly do - and whether they are always genuine moves is unlikely....people will find a way, yes, but hopefully still the minority and changes like this will give priority to more local children. Of course, introducing a priority circle will drive up house prices in those areas and squeeze out those who can only afford to rent as landlords increase rents accordingly - so your suggestion could penalise those very families the Foundation is hoping to encourage - there are winners and losers with all systems - it is very hard to look at the bigger picture when you are directly affected - I can see that - but with no horse in the race, it is easier, and, thankfully for you, you are in an area with great schools to start with AND still have access to Warks G schools at the moment, so are in a pretty good position overall.

[PettswoodFiona]

In our regions in the South of London and Kent there are lots of examples of grammars that have categories that are never offered places. I understand that admissions rules means anyone had to have the option to sit the test. What then happens is parents make the decision of whether or not to move based on the results. There is usually a cut off date in early December by when you can notify of a change of address and your CAF is still considered on time.

We also have scenarios where people move after the address change cut off date and they therefore go on waiting lists on 1 March and qualifying scores go up rather than down for the first lot of second offers due to people having high scores who’ve moved.

For example DD’s grammar has category 1 that includes top 350 scorers who are on PP or SP within the 9 mile radius; category 2 within 9 mile radius based on ranked score; category 3 - outside 9 miles.

No one has ever got a place from category 3.

Good luck with the consultation feedback and changes.