why is there no info avaliable on school 11 plus results

Eleven Plus (11+) in Buckinghamshire (Bucks)

Moderators: Section Moderators, Forum Moderators

11 Plus Platform - Online Practice Makes Perfect - Try Now
Sally-Anne
Posts: 9235
Joined: Wed Jan 11, 2006 8:10 pm
Location: Buckinghamshire

Re: why is there no info avaliable on school 11 plus results

Post by Sally-Anne »

Tree wrote:have i read this right sally anne/bucksdaddy?
You have indeed, Tree.
bucksdaddy
Posts: 36
Joined: Sat Sep 11, 2010 6:57 pm

Re: why is there no info avaliable on school 11 plus results

Post by bucksdaddy »

Tree

I still believe that my original statement is factually correct but can make it clearer with a few extra words:

A child sitting the 11+ test is almost twice as likely to score 121 from one the categories above than a Bucks Primary school.

The denominators are exactly the same, i.e. the number of children sitting the test.

Having said that, I accept one can use statistics in many ways to support ones own argument and I do accept Sally-Anne's comments that the independents / OOC children "opt in" and hence one may expect this to push their % up.

The reason I thought this statistic was interesting is that Bucks CC state "We expect about 30% of children to achieve the automatic qualifying score of 121 in at least one of their tests."

This is strictly true as about 30% of children did achieve 121 but it does mask the fact that Bucks CC educated children do not achieve 30%, the 30% is achieved when one includes independent and OOC children who have higher %. In fact even if I include the Independents the total Bucks educated children achieving 121 is still only 26%. The OOC at 41% (even if this is artificially high due to opt in) pushes the overall % up to 30%.

Personally I feel this could be clarified more clearly because as a Bucks resident I would assume my DD would, without any other factors, have a 30% chance of passing. In my view it is no wonder parents expectations are not met.

Consider the following scenario, a typical Bucks Year 6 class of 30 children "setted" into three groups of 10 children. I accept not all schools "set" and may only do it for certain lessons but bear with me. If one reads that "We expect about 30% of children to achieve the automatic qualifying score of 121", one would assume that 30 * 30% = 9 children will score 121 which is basically the top set. I also imagine that these children in the top set are all bright, hard-working, receiving excellent school reports and on this basis, and the fact that 9 of the class should score 121, they and their parents probably think they have a very good chance of scoring 121 and qualifying for a grammar school.

However, on average of the 30 children, 14% (calculated) or 4 children do not sit the exam. I suspect that these children would come from the lower two sets. We therefore have on average 26 children sitting the exam of whom 23% or 6 will on average score 121. We have a top set of 10 of whom at least 40% will be disappointed, perhaps even more as children in the second set who are coached overtake children in the top set who either have no access to coaching or don't believe they need it "because they are in the top set".

A long ramble but I think that all Bucks Primary School children and their parents should know their true chances and what they and their children need to do to pass.
Greta2
Posts: 180
Joined: Wed Jan 09, 2008 2:21 am

Re: why is there no info avaliable on school 11 plus results

Post by Greta2 »

Whilst I agree that the ooc/ partner school figures are striking what is even more striking is the difference in qualifying rates between Bucks state primaries – between 0% and 67% with the same practice material and system in place and what should be, on average, a similar range of abilities.

Why the LEA is still taking the stance of “we think additional practice may affect the results” is beyond me. The evidence is there so the question should be, what is the difference between the schools with a high qualifying rate and a low one – or more to the point what are the parents’ doing that is different and are the differences just as striking in NC levels. Why do two school less than a mile apart in location have qualifying rates that are at least 50 percentage points apart.

I think the LEA know the answer.
Tree
Posts: 536
Joined: Mon Aug 31, 2009 7:19 pm
Location: bucks

Re: why is there no info avaliable on school 11 plus results

Post by Tree »

Bucksdaddy : Ummm i'm not sure the denominator is the same as for in county primary schools it is (children who have opted in and are more likely to have prepared + children who are sitting it passively with no preparation but who's parents have not bothered to withdraw) whereas the ooc and independent denominator is (children who have opted in and who are more likely to have prepared) so uless you know the number of the passive group you can't fairly compare your chances with ooc and independent kids.
bucksdaddy
Posts: 36
Joined: Sat Sep 11, 2010 6:57 pm

Re: why is there no info avaliable on school 11 plus results

Post by bucksdaddy »

Tree

The denominator is the same - it is the children who sat the test.

I do accept your contention that maybe it is not a like for like comparison but Bucks CC use the same denominator to publicize the overall % of students achieving 121.

Based on your point that the % achieving 121 is significantly inflated by "children who have opted in and who are more likely to have prepared" which means:
- The basic stats say that for Bucks CC Primary Schools the number will almost certainly be less than 30%, but 30% is stated in the official literature.
- A recognition that those who are more likely to have prepared score higher which is of course counter to the stated fairness of the test.

I also agree with Greta's point..
Dad40
Posts: 359
Joined: Mon Jun 04, 2007 4:40 pm
Location: Chiltern District, Bucks

Re: why is there no info avaliable on school 11 plus results

Post by Dad40 »

Just catching up on this conversation.....

To bucksdaddy first: The central point of your long (but rather good) ramble is that an average does not equate to your child's personal chances of passing. That is certainly correct. A bit like if us adults do a professional exam and find out beforehand that the pass rate is 60%; does that equate to my personal chances of passing it? Well no it doesn't. I might be super-bright or I might be super-thick or almost a hundred other degrees in between.

The Bucks 11+ produces an average figure (in fact, a few averages including the lower-than-30% stat you mention) but there is a very large deviation from the mean. At district level, the numbers are different and they get more and more different as you get down to school and ultimately to individual pupil. Therefore - as you imply - what use is a single 30% figure anyway?

I'm not sure I wholly agree with Greta2 linking familarisation with pass rates. There are all sorts of other factors at play here - peer pressure; the school's own view of the 11+ (I have first hand experience of a school telling their Year 6 just before the test that they shouldn't worrry "because it's not very important really"); "preparation" (different to the official familiarisation - preparation means the school acknowledges the 11+'s existence and consequently emphasise scertain English language skills); parents' intelligence/family environment etc etc etc etc.

The other factor is of course the opt-in/opt-out factor. A couple of years ago, I uncovered a piece of data that showed that circa 1200 Bucks state school kids sit the 11+ DESPITE THE FACT THAT THEIR PARENTS PUT AN UPPER SCHOOL AS THEIR FIRST PREFERENCE. In other words, the child never had a chance of getting grammar school place despiting sitting the test (presumably their parents knew they wouldn't pass). Incidentally less than 10 of these children "surprised their parents" and passed. All of these state kids get counted in the state school stats. Had they been at private school then presumably their parents would have not bothered opting in.

The danger is that parents then tell themselves that "because we put a grammar school as first preference and because little Johnny is sitting the test, he now has a 30% chance of passing (and I've got stats prove it)". No he doesn't and no you haven't.

Bottom line is: you have to treat statistics with caution. There are lots of ways to skin this cat.....
Tree
Posts: 536
Joined: Mon Aug 31, 2009 7:19 pm
Location: bucks

Re: why is there no info avaliable on school 11 plus results

Post by Tree »

Hi dad40 u said:
To bucksdaddy first: The central point of your long (but rather good) ramble is that an average does not equate to your child's personal chances of passing. That is certainly correct. A bit like if us adults do a professional exam and find out beforehand that the pass rate is 60%; does that equate to my personal chances of passing it? Well no it doesn't. I might be super-bright or I might be super-thick or almost a hundred other degrees in between.
This was the only point i was making (the definition of denominator error is probably a red herring) and it means that using the stats for your dc's schoool to give an indication of your potential success without taking into account whether you are gonna prepare/coach etc is probably not very meaningful.
bucksdaddy
Posts: 36
Joined: Sat Sep 11, 2010 6:57 pm

Re: why is there no info avaliable on school 11 plus results

Post by bucksdaddy »

Clearly one cannot take the County average as an individual child's chances of success.

That's why I included the underlined in the sentence below:

"Personally I feel this could be clarified more clearly because as a Bucks resident I would assume my DD would, without any other factors, have a 30% chance of passing. In my view it is no wonder parents expectations are not met."

My point is that the official literature quotes 30% on average across all children and schools but that is too high for in country children.
bucks mum1
Posts: 191
Joined: Wed Apr 02, 2008 5:20 pm

Re: why is there no info avaliable on school 11 plus results

Post by bucks mum1 »

Having had a son at Grammar School who sat the 11+ two years ago, I decided not to put my daughter in for the test at her Bucks Primary School. She is in the middle sets at school but would not suit a grammar school education at all.

However she had other ideas and insisted that she wanted to take the test with all her friends. I put a Bucks Secondary School as first choice and no grammar school on my list of preferences. I let her sit the test as she wanted to be amongst the 28 children in her class sitting the test not the 4 opting out. She does not want to go to Grammar School but still wants to do the exam...

I think this is quite common in Bucks and will obviously badly skew the figures. We do not all think our children have a 30% chance of passing but want to do whatever suits our children on the day of the tests.

Finally these stats must be treated with caution - last year our school had a 60% 'pass rate' at 11+ which went up to about 70% after appeals. However this year the figure will probably be about 30%. Same school - different cohort taking the test.

With a child in Y8 at Grammar School I know the benefits it gives - however I also see some of his classmates struggling and having to be heavily coached just to keep up and I don't what that for my child.
Tree
Posts: 536
Joined: Mon Aug 31, 2009 7:19 pm
Location: bucks

Re: why is there no info avaliable on school 11 plus results

Post by Tree »

Ok the interesting thing for me here is how do you predict what the chances of your dc is in passing infact i think this warrants a new post so i'll start one please join us there
Post Reply
11 Plus Platform - Online Practice Makes Perfect - Try Now