Non-grammar schools in GS areas

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Tree
Posts: 536
Joined: Mon Aug 31, 2009 7:19 pm
Location: bucks

Re: Non-grammar schools in GS areas

Post by Tree »

Dejavu my post was mostly flippant and therefore thoughtless to you and other people who have battled with the whole 11+ 12+ thing and i'm really sorry, I promise it really wasn't meant as any kind of attack.
Rob Clark
Posts: 1298
Joined: Tue Nov 25, 2008 1:59 pm

Re: Non-grammar schools in GS areas

Post by Rob Clark »

dejavu, to be fair to Tree, I did ask for the stats.

If you find this thread unhelpful or offensive, I’m sorry, but you are at liberty to ignore it. Please don’t hijack it as I really would like to gather more information regarding my initial question. Thanks.
chicko-mum
Posts: 294
Joined: Wed Apr 28, 2010 12:19 pm

Re: Non-grammar schools in GS areas

Post by chicko-mum »

Tree wrote:can someone explain value added i've never really understood on what data its based ??
http://www.standards.dfes.gov.uk/perfor ... ulated.doc" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; this document shows exactly how the CVA figures are calculated.
I believe though, in simplistic terms, that CVA measures the increase/decrease in predicted grade to actual grade. The score for a student is calculated as
(act score - pred score)/no of students in group
Eg a student in a class of 30, predicted to get a B but gets an A at GCSE would have a +VA of (52-46)/30 = 0.2 So small increases over the base of 1000 are not necessarily a bad thing.
For the whole school calculations there are modifications applied such as shrinkage factor, sadly this is the point where my understanding ends :roll:
Does this help?
dejavu
Posts: 194
Joined: Thu Jan 17, 2008 9:01 pm
Location: bucks

Re: Non-grammar schools in GS areas

Post by dejavu »

Thanks Tree - for being so magnanimous - as you realise - things are still raw -even after alll this time. No way was I trying to hijack anything - whatever Mr Clark thinks - I was just trying to make the point that if the Bucks gs kids results are higher than the natiional average - then surely the ones that didn't get to gs might still get results higher than the national average - bearing in mind the national standardisation. I, unlike you, are rubbish with stats - so I will now go and hide under a stone.....
many thanks
dejavu
Tree
Posts: 536
Joined: Mon Aug 31, 2009 7:19 pm
Location: bucks

Re: Non-grammar schools in GS areas

Post by Tree »

Hi Dejavu, I would be a little cautious comparing the bucks children taking the 11+ and 12+ with the children who take the national standardisation tests because i assume these are chosen randomly from the whole country whereas the children taking the 11+ and 12+ in bucks are a different population in that they will probably have had more preparation and are a selected group (ie they have chosen to take these exams) it maybe that bucks kids are smarter (demographics ?) but i'm not sure you can fairly compare these groups

Am still trying to understand the value added measure its not clear what they are using now that the KS3 tests have been stopped presumably the KS2 tests?
Tree
Posts: 536
Joined: Mon Aug 31, 2009 7:19 pm
Location: bucks

Re: Non-grammar schools in GS areas

Post by Tree »

The average CVA value for non selective schools in bucks is around 990 from the bbc table however i'm not sure you can average these scores across schools meaningfully and there seems to be quite a wide confidence interval on the CVA scores of 10-15 which i assume means that scores of 990-1010 are not statistically significantly different from 1000 and this covers a large proportion of the schools so i'm not sure how to read these results significantly.
Tree
Posts: 536
Joined: Mon Aug 31, 2009 7:19 pm
Location: bucks

Re: Non-grammar schools in GS areas

Post by Tree »

Getting off topic has anyone looked at this ready reckoner for calculating your childs predicted KS4 score based on thier ks2 scores

http://www.nationalstrategiescpd.org.uk ... 36.html#a3" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

i found this whilst trying to understand value added if you go to the ready reckoner link and call up the spreedsheet (i used the one for 2008) you then type in your dc's ks2 results and it will tell you what score thay should get for their top 8 gcse's i've just worked this out for my DD who's in year 10 and she should get 431 points which is roughly 4a*s and 4a's ha ha will tell her this in the morning!
Jazz
Posts: 41
Joined: Sun Aug 24, 2008 9:01 pm

Re: Non-grammar schools in GS areas

Post by Jazz »

I don't think CVA has anything to do with the number of students in a group ... class sizes aren't mentioned anywhere ...

It is to do with actual achievement relative to predicted grade, though, which is why it is (theoretically) a better measure than A*-C achievement - a school with a low-ability intake may not do well in terms of 5 A*-C but could have a very high proportion of pupils gaining higher levels than expected.
ian35mm
Posts: 224
Joined: Sat Nov 29, 2008 8:04 pm

Re: Non-grammar schools in GS areas

Post by ian35mm »

Good grief - where do you begin.

It's really no suprise that most of the people that really know about education have left this forum.

OK, this is what is says on the Mandeville website:

The school is delighted to announce that results continue to exceed all expectation with ‘outstanding’ achievements across the school. This year 97% of all students gained five or more GCSE passes A* to G and of these students 72% achieved A* to C grades which is a 15% improvement on last year’s results. In relation to GCSE qualifications including English and Mathematics, the school has once again exceeded the government national target. These impressive results have been achieved through the school’s significant investment in staff training and student ‘coaching’.

And LWS:-

Students, families and staff have much to celebrate today with the release of excellent GCSE results. 80% of students achieved 5 or more A* - C grades, with 69% achieving 5 or more A* - C grades, including English and Mathematics.


Absolutely not possible to make any comparason here then!

Looking at the 2009 figures - 5 GCSE's (including English and Maths) A*-C, taken from the BBC league tables.

Mandeville - 38%
LWS - 60%
National figures 49.8%

But, the number of students on the SEN register is higher at LWS than Mandeville (26% to 19%). Hmm, I wonder why that is? (Actually I know the answer, but why would anyone let information get in the way of spurious statistics).

And, LWS is in Thame and many of the catchment kids take, and indeed pass, the bucks 11+ and so go to school in Aylesbury.

So, in summary, the make-up of LWS is distorted by the ability of children to take the 11+ and bus it across the border. They also have a higher number of SEN children than you find at Mandeville (over a quarter of their entire year group in 2009). And yet, in 2009, they outperformed Mandeville hugely.

It is impossible to reduce the performance of these two schools to simple (and simplistic) statistics!
Tree
Posts: 536
Joined: Mon Aug 31, 2009 7:19 pm
Location: bucks

Re: Non-grammar schools in GS areas

Post by Tree »

Hi ian35mm i thought (and hoped) my dodgy stats would entice you in :D I'm really interested in your opinion on the original post do you think bucks uppers do well or suffer from the gs system or is it impossible to give meaningful answer to this. Also I have been looking at the stats about the value added measure which seem really dodgy to me and I'd be interested in what you think about this too.
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