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PostPosted: Wed Nov 01, 2017 11:46 pm 
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Joined: Mon Sep 25, 2017 11:38 am
Posts: 166
CAF is done and now it is time for some observations based on data analysis and quick prediction.

Observations:

* Bucks site is best , lots of good information available - really great work !!!

* 1457 pupils qualified from Bucks this time compare to 1387 last time, so there is increase in 70 - (this number 1457 pupils) will increase further after review/Appeals.

* Total 3453 Qualified this time - out of that approx. 500 qualify child can classify as Exam Tourist. :(

* 2241 admission given on 2017 entry and We can say more then 1 out of 3 is coming from outside of Bucks - Please note that this thread purpose is not to start OOC and IC debate.

* Milton Keynes child's are biggest beneficiaries - almost all child who has passed exam in 2017 entry got admission in Bucks GS. Herts is another example for beneficiaries -

* Exam format is changing in 2019 and they may change overall policy too - you never know ...

=============

* My Prediction - Caveats: please considered predication as guess work, since very limited data are available.

* Distance will shrink overall due to extra 70 child's from Bucks

* Since we do not have any details regarding gender and every child's first choice - it is difficult to guess real distance change

* For Chiltern area - There is increase of almost 40 child

Following 3 schools mainly prefer by Chiltern Students - DCGS , DCHS and CGS - All three school will see further shrinkage in distance due to extra counts.
- for DCHS 0.8 mile distance change in from March 2017 to April 2017 - 11 child got admission,so we can guess that DCHS distance will be less then 8 miles this time - Sorry Harrow Kids ...

More analysis to come .....


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PostPosted: Thu Nov 02, 2017 7:16 am 
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Hi neo, just wondering where you got your figures from? Thanks.


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PostPosted: Thu Nov 02, 2017 8:37 am 
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Joined: Mon Sep 25, 2017 11:38 am
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https://www.buckscc.gov.uk/media/450975 ... sional.pdf



https://www.buckscc.gov.uk/media/1337/t ... t-2016.pdf


https://www.buckscc.gov.uk/media/450865 ... -28217.pdf


https://www.whatdotheyknow.com/request/ ... ng-1047669


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PostPosted: Thu Nov 02, 2017 8:50 am 
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Thanks. Incredible that someone had to do an FOI request partly asking about whether admissions are based in distance or score when the info is freely available in numerous places :lol:


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PostPosted: Thu Nov 02, 2017 8:56 am 
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Joined: Wed Jan 18, 2012 11:41 am
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Location: Essex
scary mum wrote:
Thanks. Incredible that someone had to do an FOI request partly asking about whether admissions are based in distance or score when the info is freely available in numerous places :lol:


Going on some of this year's (and past years') posts on here, I'm sure 'incredible' isn't really the word you mean :lol: .

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PostPosted: Thu Nov 02, 2017 9:04 am 
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Joined: Tue Nov 02, 2010 2:05 pm
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Location: Berks
scary mum wrote:
Thanks. Incredible that someone had to do an FOI request partly asking about whether admissions are based in distance or score when the info is freely available in numerous places :lol:

I know, I'm amazed at that too :roll: :roll: :roll:


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PostPosted: Thu Nov 02, 2017 9:16 am 
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Location: Essex
You know, I found this really odd page on the same website as I would have had to visit as an OOC parent, to register my DC to sit the Transfer Test. It's got a list of every Buckinghamshire school on it, complete with catchment area map (even for the grammar schools - isn't that weird, can't be important to me, though, can it?). And a link to each school's website. So for each school I was interested in, I could have popped over to their website and had a look at the tab marked 'Admissions'? Gosh :lol:

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PostPosted: Thu Nov 02, 2017 9:38 am 
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Joined: Wed Oct 19, 2016 3:49 pm
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People don’t look at that information. And even if they do, they don’t believe it. Because everyone knows a friend of a friend of a friend (who lives miles OOC) got in with a high score into DCGS so the admission criteria listed on the website must be wrong...

And when you meet someone who believes that then nothing you can say will make them listen to reason. :roll:


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PostPosted: Thu Nov 02, 2017 9:40 am 
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Joined: Wed Jan 11, 2006 7:10 pm
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Location: Buckinghamshire
neo, as you rightly point out, there is very little data to go on at this point in time, but I will make a few comments, as follows:
neo1232 wrote:
* Total 3453 Qualified this time - out of that approx. 500 qualify child can classify as Exam Tourist. :(

This depends upon your definition of an exam tourist, but sadly I fear your estimate is too low. Our estimates in previous years have been as high as 700, and I suspect that figure has increased. The only way of telling is to compare the number of qualifiers with the number of children who express a first preference for a Bucks GS, and we won't know that number until late January.

Quote:
* 2241 admission given on 2017 entry and We can say more then 1 out of 3 is coming from outside of Bucks - Please note that this thread purpose is not to start OOC and IC debate.

That really isn't news. In 2015 the figure was 30.1%, in 2016 it was 30.0% and in 2017 it was 31.8%. The number has increased slowly and steadily since the CEM test was adopted 5 years ago. Wih some luck, the new GL test will reverse the trend.

Quote:
* Milton Keynes child's are biggest beneficiaries - almost all child who has passed exam in 2017 entry got admission in Bucks GS. Herts is another example for beneficiaries -

That is absolutely not news either. MK children have always formed a large part of the cohort at the Aylesbury schools and RLS.

Herts children have also always formed a large part of the cohorts at the Aylesbury schools and CGS. However last year, you will note that there were 177 outright qualifiers, but only 111 allocations. Although we have no way of knowing whether all 177 qualifiers expressed a first preference for a Bucks school, my hunch is that they did. The considerably smaller allocation distance for CGS means that quite a lot of Herts pupils did not gain places this year, probably for the first time.

Quote:
* Exam format is changing in 2019 and they may change overall policy too - you never know ...

I'm not entirely sure what you are implying here? However, given that 12/13 Bucks grammars were referred to the OSA only a few months ago, and all their admission policies were subjected to very close scrutiny, I don't think they will be in a rush to change them again.

Quote:
* Distance will shrink overall due to extra 70 child's from Bucks

The trend has been for smaller allocation distances for several years.

Quote:
* Since we do not have any details regarding gender and every child's first choice - it is difficult to guess real distance change

Exactly. As you've only been a forum member for a few weeks, you may not have seen this thread from early this year: viewtopic.php?f=12&t=49709 and my update here: viewtopic.php?f=12&t=50046&p=610090&hilit=crystal#p610090 Once we see the preferences, it is possible to estimate distances reasonably accurately. My crystal ball was within around +/-10% for all but one school this year.

Quote:
* For Chiltern area - There is increase of almost 40 child

Following 3 schools mainly prefer by Chiltern Students - DCGS , DCHS and CGS - All three school will see further shrinkage in distance due to extra counts.

The reason Chiltern students prefer DCGS, DCHS and CGS is because they are their catchment grammars! I agree that there is a strong possibility that distances will shrink somewhat, and the trend from last year was for greater pressure on places in Chiltern, but once again, it is far too early to tell.

Quote:
- for DCHS 0.8 mile distance change in from March 2017 to April 2017 - 11 child got admission,so we can guess that DCHS distance will be less then 8 miles this time - Sorry Harrow Kids ...

I think your assumptions on DCHS are probably a leap too far at this stage, but the statement regarding Harrow children is also part of a trend. The number of allocations to Harrow children dropped to an all-time low of 15 last year; for the 3 previous years it was in the region of 30.


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PostPosted: Thu Nov 02, 2017 9:54 am 
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Sally-Anne wrote:
Although we have no way of knowing whether all 177 qualifiers expressed a first preference for a Bucks school, my hunch is that they did.


I know one family didn't. They placed St Clement Danes first and Chesham 2nd (sibling rule). They got St Clement Danes. They may have been the only ones though.


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