Few Data Analysis Observations and Guessing game!!

[BlueBerry]

Sorry, I don't know how to use the quote option.
Quote from Sally-Anne: In 2015 the figure was 30.1%, in 2016 it was 30.0% and in 2017 it was 31.8%. The number has increased slowly and steadily since the CEM test was adopted 5 years ago. Wih some luck, the new GL test will reverse the trend.


Sally-Anne, why would the GL testing have an impact on the OCC numbers?

[kenyancowgirl]

Possibly because a number of areas around the country use CEM testing so people who use a scattergun approach to selecting schools try and plump for as many as they possibly can (that aren't on so called CEM super Saturday) to give their child a "practise" at one or the other (always hoping that actually they get offers at both so they can brag about how many they qualified for?

But I am sure S-A who, (let's face it is genuinely the guru on number crunching for Bucks stats - amongst others - and) has far, far more access to actual legitimate information and fact, may have another take on it too!!

neo, I hate to say it, but your numbers do look much heavier on the latter part of your thread title and a bit light on the former...!

[Sally-Anne]

Sally-Anne, why would the GL testing have an impact on the OCC numbers?

Pretty much as kcg says: we suspect that a lot of parents have used Bucks as a mock test for other CEM areas. Although I suspect that the GL test will not differ greatly in content, the fact that it is no longer billed as CEM may deter some of those folk.

[BlueBerry]

Thanks KCG & S-A for the clarifications. Let's hope that your predications holds true.

[anotherdad]

People don’t look at that information. And even if they do, they don’t believe it. Because everyone knows a friend of a friend of a friend (who lives miles OOC) got in with a high score into DCGS so the admission criteria listed on the website must be wrong...

And when you meet someone who believes that then nothing you can say will make them listen to reason.

That'll be the same friend who is resentful of the fact that their September-born child will have marks deducted from their score whilst their friend's July baby had it easy with all those marks added.

So many people misunderstand the age standardisation principles. I reckon I could start a successful advisory service for parents, suggesting the most appropriate time of the year for ahem, 'romantic evenings', to maximise the extra points their future children will get in the 11+. Heck, what better way to relieve the stress of 11+ results day if you want all those juicy extra points for a July baby. The timing's perfect.

"Conception Perfection Selection" - coming soon on an app store near you.

[Amber]

So many people misunderstand the age standardisation principles. I reckon I could start a successful advisory service for parents, suggesting the most appropriate time of the year for ahem, 'romantic evenings', to maximise the extra points their future children will get in the 11+. Heck, what better way to relieve the stress of 11+ results day if you want all those juicy extra points for a July baby. The timing's perfect.

"Conception Perfection Selection" - coming soon on an app store near you.

Ah yes, but stats also show that these summer babies do worse in public exams like GCSEs. So you need to factor that in as well...perhaps ideal time of birth is around Christmas, as then you can rack up a few extra points on the 11+ but still be in with a fighting chance of passing one or two GCSEs. Though as someone with a birthday in Christmas week, the appeal of 'PS. Happy Birthday' written in your Christmas card does wear off after a while. Mind you, perhaps the psychological trauma it causes could come in handy at appeal...

[kenyancowgirl]

[anotherdad]

Ah yes, but stats also show that these summer babies do worse in public exams like GCSEs. So you need to factor that in as well...perhaps ideal time of birth is around Christmas, as then you can rack up a few extra points on the 11+ but still be in with a fighting chance of passing one or two GCSEs. Though as someone with a birthday in Christmas week, the appeal of 'PS. Happy Birthday' written in your Christmas card does wear off after a while. Mind you, perhaps the psychological trauma it causes could come in handy at appeal...

Nah. Get 'em to a grammar, job done!

I know someone born on February 29th. Can you imagine the age-standardisation on that? Got to be worth 100 points on its own. And as for its use in a review:

"We would like to appeal on the basis that our son was only two when he sat the test."

[Amber]

And anyone thinking ahead to 2028, I am sorry to tell you that you have missed the Golden Date for this year, as any baby conceived today, for example, risks an August birthday, nay, is pretty much guaranteed of one.

The time to book that romantic weekend away, if you want a December baby, looks like being the end of February, beginning of March.

Nah. Get 'em to a grammar, job done!

Short sighted to say the least. What are the admissions to Oxbridge by birth month eh? That is what we really need to know.

[Sally-Anne]

I know someone born on February 29th. Can you imagine the age-standardisation on that? Got to be worth 100 points on its own. And as for its use in a review:

"We would like to appeal on the basis that our son was only two when he sat the test."