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PostPosted: Sat Jan 20, 2018 6:40 pm 
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Joined: Wed Jan 11, 2006 7:10 pm
Posts: 8897
Location: Buckinghamshire
The preference numbers for all schools were published yesterday, and I have mulled over them together with my crystal ball. This is the full chart:
Attachment:
Pref stats for Secondary Schools - 18 Jan 2018.pdf [33.53 KiB]
Downloaded 913 times

For those of you looking at Upper Schools, you can see the preferences vs. PAN from the full chart. If you have questions about previous years, fire away - I have the data for several past years, but I simply haven't collated it for the Uppers.

For the Grammars, my crystal ball can be viewed here:
Attachment:

There isn't a great deal of change on last year, so the distances I am predicting are fairly similar. The pressure, once again, is in Chiltern. Although both the Challoners' have increased numbers of first preferences, and CGS somewhat fewer, CGS will take up the slack from the other two, so I predict that the distance for it will not extend beyond the M25.

The dark horse this year is SHF, with a big leap in preferences. However, it is very hard to predict an exact distance because it will all depend on where the children actually live within the many acres of empty green fields in the surrounding area, so I've plumped for 14 miles. Bucks residents will certainly have no issue with gaining places.

As ever, please don't take this as gospel because there are so many other variables that we don't have information about, but it does provide actual past statistics, and you can draw your own conclusions from those.

Enjoy!


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PostPosted: Sat Jan 20, 2018 7:59 pm 
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Joined: Tue Nov 02, 2010 2:05 pm
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Oooh exciting stuff! I'm off to have a look now


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PostPosted: Sat Jan 20, 2018 8:36 pm 
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Joined: Mon Mar 28, 2011 4:42 pm
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Thank you for doing this Sally-Anne-it is very interesting :)

However, I'm surprised that the successful Selection Reviews have already been taken into account (unless I'm misunderstanding the data) as that means the outcomes are already known in which case I wish the results had been released to all those who are agonisingly waiting for the outcome of their child's Selection Review (with no nails left if they are anything like me!) instead of keeping us hanging on for another two weeks-which I'm sure will feel like two months :lol:

2 little boys x


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PostPosted: Sat Jan 20, 2018 9:49 pm 
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Joined: Tue Nov 02, 2010 2:05 pm
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2littleboys wrote:
Thank you for doing this Sally-Anne-it is very interesting :)

However, I'm surprised that the successful Selection Reviews have already been taken into account (unless I'm misunderstanding the data) as that means the outcomes are already known in which case I wish the results had been released to all those who are agonisingly waiting for the outcome of their child's Selection Review (with no nails left if they are anything like me!) instead of keeping us hanging on for another two weeks-which I'm sure will feel like two months :lol:

2 little boys x


I thought that too! I was just about to PM you to see whether you have heard anything.


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PostPosted: Sat Jan 20, 2018 9:50 pm 
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Joined: Tue Nov 02, 2010 2:05 pm
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Oh dear, I shouldn't have agonized about the RGS vs JHGS saga. It looks like we won't get into RGS anyway :cry:


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PostPosted: Sat Jan 20, 2018 10:08 pm 
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Joined: Mon Mar 28, 2011 4:42 pm
Posts: 274
Quote:
Oh dear, I shouldn't have agonized about the RGS vs JHGS saga. It looks like we won't get into RGS anyway


That's a shame Blueberry.

Honestly though they are both great schools so I'm sure your son will be happy at whichever one he ends up at.

I'm hoping to receive a letter from BCC on Saturday 3rd February or at the latest Monday 5th February. I will come back on here and update either way.

I hope everyone else is bearing up.

2 little boys x


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PostPosted: Sun Jan 21, 2018 1:45 am 
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Joined: Wed Jan 11, 2006 7:10 pm
Posts: 8897
Location: Buckinghamshire
Quote:
However, I'm surprised that the successful Selection Reviews have already been taken into account (unless I'm misunderstanding the data) as that means the outcomes are already known

I was surprised at that too because it is a change from previous years, but this is the wording on the subject that accompanied the preferences:
Quote:
The attached spreadsheet details the preferences as parents have ranked them. For each preference ranking, the first figure is the total number of preferences; the second takes account of qualification on the basis of test score and selection review outcome.


I can only report what I'm given! :?


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PostPosted: Sun Jan 21, 2018 7:52 am 
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Joined: Mon Jan 02, 2017 7:20 pm
Posts: 105
Sally - I am confused with your DCHS prediction - are you suggesting that no OA will get admission - that is big change - is it really possible?

Increase in popularity of Beaconsfield School (big jump) makes this prediction more complex - any thoughts please

Thanks for data though - very useful.


Last edited by Dev1 on Mon Jan 22, 2018 10:47 am, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Sun Jan 21, 2018 10:00 am 
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Joined: Mon Mar 28, 2011 4:42 pm
Posts: 274
Thanks Sally-Anne.

You're very helpful as always :)

2 little boys x


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PostPosted: Sun Jan 21, 2018 12:33 pm 
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Joined: Tue Nov 02, 2010 2:05 pm
Posts: 968
In my shock at the predication I forgot my manners. Many thanks S-A for this info.


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