This week we attended both KEGS and CRGS post 11+ open morning meetings.
I am feeling quite nervous now for my boy who's score was 341.241 as the head of kegs had a very different view about the historical sheet for 2019. We are in catchment for KEGS only.

In big bold letters he wrote:

WARNING:The numbers for the 11+ has gone up. The average score of candidates sitting at KEGS has gone up and age standardiation will on average INCREASE scores. We cannot predicted actual cut offs - BUT WE BELIEVE that the cut offs for KEGS will rise this year.

Looking at the historical sheets the last 4 years is actually not giving me much hope. Could it be as much as 4 points?

I'm starting to doubt whether 341.242 will be good enough.

He can say whatever he likes; when the chips are down, the cut off will remain the same.

Just list schools in your true order of preference, making sure that you name at least one where your DS has a realistic chance of getting a place if his score is not (at least initially) sufficient for a place at either grammar school.

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Outside of a dog, a book is a man's best friend. Inside of a dog it's too dark to read.Groucho Marx

We are ic for KEGS and thought DS was in with a chance of getting in off the waiting list which now looks impossible.

All anyone can do is make an educated guess.
The head will have more information than most but since even he doesn't know the scores of those who actually apply to KEGS as first or subsequent choices it's still predictions.

Its natural to look for answers rather than the anxious wait but there aren't any certainties.

What everyone should do is list their schools in true preference order and for all but exceptional cases to have at the bottom of the list at least one school that is acceptable where your child meets the entry criteria with as much certainty as there can be.
The only people taking a risk are those who dont include such an option.

Is this for 2019, what is his score?

Totally agree with this viewpoint.

Do remember, Mr Carter (KEGS' Head) has seen all the i/c and occ scores. He is also a mathematician and statistician. He is very honest and open with parents, and is probably just trying to help by giving his honest opinion.

My son was the year when the catchment area was introduced and 8 additional places were added (Under the old Head). I would have been grateful for an honest take on my son's chance. We got no indication about likely cut-off scores as so much changed that year.

As Toadmum says, put the schools in you true order of preference and keep your fingers crossed for good news.

Apologies if I appeared to be criticising the head.
My intention was just to deter anyone from not doing as advised ( putting choices in true preference order) because they thought they didn't stand a chance this year

"He can say whatever he likes....the cut off will remain the same"

That just made me chuckle. How can anyone say that?! The Headteacher of KEGS, who's seen the numbers (number and scores of DCs who took the test, at least for those who sat the test at KEGS) has openly said 'The numbers for the 11+ has gone up. The average score of candidates sitting at KEGS has gone up and age standardiation will on average INCREASE scores. We cannot predicted actual cut offs - BUT WE BELIEVE that the cut offs for KEGS will rise this year' but you somehow know that "...when the chips are down, the cut off will remain the same".

How do you know this? What's the basis of this insight?