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PostPosted: Thu Sep 27, 2012 7:22 am 
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I too have heard this before and thought it because DS has always had spaces in his class, However I thought it was more true of the last year (current yr7) as many people in yr 6 seem to have a sibling in that millennium year group 8.
Think i'll try and do some digging to see if I can find any stats for birth rates in these yrs. We all want to think positively at this late stage!

9 more sleeps!


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PostPosted: Thu Sep 27, 2012 8:24 am 
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The ONS figures show that 2001 was a very low birthrate year, closely followed by 2002. Obviously the current Y6 will come from those years. The question that springs to my mind is how much of a disadvantage did those born in late 2000 have compared to those born early 2001...?


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PostPosted: Thu Sep 27, 2012 8:32 am 
For info these are the figures from ons of live births in England/Wales.
1999. 621,872
2000. 604,441
2001. 594,634
2002 596,122
2003 621,469
2011. 723,913


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PostPosted: Thu Sep 27, 2012 10:41 am 
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So providing that Gloucestershire doesn't buck the national trend... In theory there are slightly less children competing for the same number of GS (and other good comps) places.

I'm not sure if this will make any significant difference but it all helps. It would be interesting to compare how many people apply to sit the exam this year compared to the past few years.

I'm quite enjoying all this pointless speculation, it's a good distraction from....Oh, thinking about the 11+ exam. Not really working is it? :D


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PostPosted: Thu Sep 27, 2012 10:57 am 
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Might have to ban myself from this site for depressing people.

http://www.thisisgloucestershire.co.uk/ ... story.html

The above article earlier this month states

"According to the county council, 98 per cent of Gloucestershire's 6,447 pupils who applied for a secondary school places this year were allocated a space at one of their preferred schools."

nearly 6.5k sounds like a lot of children when there are only approximately 850 places available in GS
BUT realistically lots of people aren't going to be considering a place for all sorts of reasons in addition to academic ability including people who have fantastic comps and don't believe in the GS system. I chose not to go to a GS years ago and never regretted it.

I think it would be much more useful to know how many people actually apply and sit the test.


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PostPosted: Thu Sep 27, 2012 11:45 am 
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The details of las years test:

For those who like statistics: 2,035 registered to take the tests on time. This resulted in 5,435 requests to share. 5,206 results were sent out at the weekend. Of these just 84 were sent out by letter and 5,122 were sent by email. The difference in numbers between the number of requests to share and the number of results is explained by the number of children who did not sit the tests either on Saturday 8th October or Thursday 13th October 2011. In some cases the applications were withdrawn, in others they just did not show up on the day and no explanation was given.


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PostPosted: Thu Sep 27, 2012 12:01 pm 
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Location: Gloucestershire
Of those numbers who registered to take the test, there will be some from outside County and also those from the Private sector many of whom will not be included in the 6,447 pupils allocated by Glos CC on allocations day (depending on if they stay in the private, or hedge their bets by accepting a state, then not turning up on 1st day of term because they've stayed in or got a scholarship in the private sector).

And finally, the 2035 registered to take the test are not the 2035 brightest pupils in the county. There are many bright children who opt to go to comprehensive on grounds of distance from the grammars (which are all quite central, whereas Glos includes places near Chepstow, Stow on the Wold, Fairford, etc), parental political ideology or just wanting to go there because their mates are going there!

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PostPosted: Fri Sep 28, 2012 8:35 am 
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Don't forget though that many parents outside Gloucestershire choose to send their children to a Glos Grammar.

I know that at my DD2's school the current Y6 is a low intake - the school has a PAN of 60 but I don't believe it has ever gone above 42 and has often been below the 40 mark.


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PostPosted: Fri Sep 28, 2012 9:35 am 
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DD school has a PAN of 37 but always has at least 40, this year 41.


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PostPosted: Fri Sep 28, 2012 10:01 am 
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The DS's has 26 children in the class. The reception class started with 9 children but as time has gone on and the schools reputation has improved more children seem to have joined but it has always been the smallest class in the school.


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