The effect of the Crypt/Tommies changes

[cazien]

Hi...I will see if I can get it reconfirmed...

Here are the results for my DS2 -

Pates = 762
Tommies = 305
Crypt = 514
Marling = 251

Hope this helps...

Cheers,
Dr. Watson

Now this has me confused!

DS 'ranked' early 600 for Pates, early 300 for Marling, Nothing for STR, and nothing for Crypt.....how can it be so different for my DS than the above?!? (As in, how can DS be a ranked 150+ higher for Pates than the above but he didn't get a ranking for STR and Crypt..)

Probably because the girls "pushed" him further down the list (600+)for Crypt, and he didn't have a high enough rank (400+?) for STR to give him a qualifying rank?

[MountainDweller]

Hi...I will see if I can get it reconfirmed...

Here are the results for my DS2 -

Pates = 762
Tommies = 305
Crypt = 514
Marling = 251

Hope this helps...

Cheers,
Dr. Watson

Now this has me confused!

DS 'ranked' early 600 for Pates, early 300 for Marling, Nothing for STR, and nothing for Crypt.....how can it be so different for my DS than the above?!? (As in, how can DS be a ranked 150+ higher for Pates than the above but he didn't get a ranking for STR and Crypt..)

Probably because the girls "pushed" him further down the list (600+)for Crypt, and he didn't have a high enough rank (400+?) for STR to give him a qualifying rank?

Thank you.

Just found out he is ranked 52 places lower at Crypt than he is at Pates so I think that follows the trend discussed earlier?

[Legofan]

The girls we know who really want Crypt, I think will quite look forward to that attention! As someone choosing btw strs & Crypt, I think the 2018 crypt intake will have everything thrown at them to make the transition successful - resources, extra care etc. That's an attractive prospect!

I hadn’t thought of it that way, that’s a good point.

[Watermelon8]

The girls we know who really want Crypt, I think will quite look forward to that attention! As someone choosing btw strs & Crypt, I think the 2018 crypt intake will have everything thrown at them to make the transition successful - resources, extra care etc. That's an attractive prospect!

I hadn’t thought of it that way, that’s a good point.

DS is bright but quiet, conscientious & musical, not hugely into rugby. I worry he'll be lost in a sea of blue at Tommies (to quote a friend with a son there who feels that way) but I wonder if he may have more opportunity to shine in this 'new' intake at Crypt??

[piombino]

more results to share:

Pates 485
STRS 275
Crypt 452
Marling 222

I agree with the above comments, I think that Crypt will be very focused on the 2018 intake, plus by adding girls the number of boys reduces, thus facilitating the ability to "shine" and, of course, reducing the ability to "hide"

[mcfly]

Last year when we visited Crypt open day a senior teacher told us they were concerned about funding cuts and that teacher layoffs were an ever present danger though none had happened by that point. The expansion to include girls seems purely financial - do not expect to have money thrown at the DC as a result of this change - costs are much higher for the 2018 entry and there wont be many kids with PP funding.

[Watermelon8]

Last year when we visited Crypt open day a senior teacher told us they were concerned about funding cuts and that teacher layoffs were an ever present danger though none had happened by that point. The expansion to include girls seems purely financial - do not expect to have money thrown at the DC as a result of this change - costs are much higher for the 2018 entry and there wont be many kids with PP funding.

Agreed, the ever present threat of funding cuts is a concern everywhere but I have seen first hand the preparation & planning that has gone into this new Crypt intake. So time will tell I guess...

[grammarheadache]

Some data and a couple of questions.

DS placed within top 150 for STRS and ranked 171 for Crypt. Didn't share with Pates.

If c.40% of Crypt high achievers were girls, would that imply a ranking of c.100 for STRS?

And, would his ranking likely have been high enough for Pates had he applied? Just curious!

[Legofan]

Who knows. Your son may not have achieved the required result in each element and therefore not qualified for pates.

Our child ranked 163 for crypt and 201 for pates a gap of 38. As the ranks increase the gap does too (from results posted) so its probable that he would have got a ranking under 226 should he have passed each element of the test.

[Lysander]

And now an update on what *actually* appears to have happened:

1. Comparing Crypt and Pates rankings, one sees a difference of between 28 and 50 between the scores. Crucially, Crypt 158 = Pates 194, Crypt 154 = Pates 192, and Crypt 202 = Pates 230. The first two have a difference of 36, and the final score (which was a non-qualifying score for Pates) has a difference of 28. We know that Pates' candidates needed to qualify in all three disciplines separately, whereas the other grammars did not have such a requirement. This explains the disparity in the final comparison. What we get from this is that there were 36 candidates who qualified for Pates who did not enter for Crypt. The corollary, is that 114 of the Crypt qualifers also qualified for Pates, so when considering your Crypt score, subtract 114 to take account of the rough number who will be opting for Pates instead. (This is based on the assumption that the overwhelming majority of children who qualify for both will opt for Pates).

2. Comparing Crypt and Tommies rankings, one can observe that approximately 40% of the higher-end qualifiers are girls. This is based on the assumption that children sharing results with Crypt will also share with Tommies. We have Crypt 437 = Tommies 265, Crypt 423 = Tommies 256, and Crypt 266 = Tommies 160. (We can only compare results outside the top 150 here, for the comparison to make sense.) In each of these examples, the Tommies score is approximately 60% of the Crypt score, which leads me to the conclusion that it is likely that at least 40% of the Crypt intake (or 60 students) will be girls. Thus the net effect of the Crypt changes on grammar school places will be neutral for boys, and will create an additional 60 places for girls

3. By doubling the pool from which it recruits, Crypt will at a stroke bring in children with much higher rankings. (This is likely to be reflected in a jump in academic results at GCSE in 5 years time.) The girls' schools which will now admit children with lower rankings are likely to see a commensurate fall in demand as a first choice, particularly Ribston, as it seems likely with the Grammar School pecking order as it is, that the bulk of the 60 girls who last year would not have got a Grammar place, will end up at Ribston in 2018.

4. The more girls who gain places at Crypt, the greater the pressure there will be on places at Marling. In most previous years, the higher scoring boys chose Tommies and the lower scoring boys were divided between Marling and Crypt. (Broad generalisation here, I know) Higher scoring girls tended to choose HSFG and lower scoring SHS and Ribston. If we have Higher scoring girls chosing Crypt, that will reduce the pool of places for boys, so those who didn't score high enough for Tommies will be competing for a smaller pool of places at Marling and Crypt.

5. The email sent from Crypt today indicates that they think 600 as a qualifying score is realistic in terms of the places they expect to award. If you take away 114 for Pates, 100 for Tommies, 100 for Denmark Road, then you're looking at ranks from 315 upwards being pretty realistic in terms of getting places. Take away another 50 for private schools and the Stroud schools, and then Crypt could be admitting students 365 - 515. So what they say about "don't worry about low rankings for Crypt" probably is true.

I think the upshot of this is that all of the schools which admit children with higher rankings will see some loss of pupils to Crypt, and that there won't be staggering changes in the last rank admitted at boys' schools, unless Crypt is very popular with high-ranking girls. It seems very likely that Ribson will be admitting girls with a lower rank than last year, and likely that HSFG will too, but the effect will not be so pronounced. I also think that despite the changes at Tommies, there will be no more boys going to grammars in 2018 than in 2017, and it's possible that there will be a net reduction in this number.

2017/2018 comparison, using stats taken from this site (admittedly it's allocation day and there will be a little bit of stretch to all the lowest ranks)


STRS: 265 in 2017, 274+ in 2018 (+the lowest rank reported so far)
Marling: 384 in 2017, 375 in 2018
Ribston: 518 in 2017, 504+ in 2018 (+the lowest rank reported so far)
HSFG: 314 in 2017, ? in 2018
SHS: 371 in 2017, 375 in 2018
Pate's: 200 in 2017, 170s in 2018
Crypt (2016 figure because I can't find 2017 anywhere): 370, 600 in 2018 with 70 places still to fill

The net result (at the moment) of the Crypt/Tommies changes is that instead of adding 60 grammar places, there were 70 fewer grammar places on allocations day. If we assume that Pate's has stayed roughly at the same proportion of boys and girls, and we know that Crypt is a little over 2/3 boys (so let's say 55 boys and 25 girls), then:

Crypt has gone from admitting 120 boys on the last allocation day to admitting 55 today, and STRS have admitted 30 more boys, so overall, approximately 35 fewer boys have been allocated a grammar school place this morning than on the last allocation day. 25 extra girls have been offered a place than on allocation day last year.

If we assume that the additional children going to fill the Crypt extra places are in the same proportion, we'd expect another 50ish boys and 20 girls, so there'd be 15 more boys at grammars than last year, and 45 more girls.

So the upshot of this is not seismic changes anywhere (except it does look like Pate's places were more contested this year than last, and we don't yet know the last rank admitted at some of the schools), but if your dc was one of the ones who's just missed out, it's worth appealing to Crypt.