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PostPosted: Sun Oct 22, 2017 10:21 am 
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DD1 received a ranking of 459 for Ribston. How realistic do you think her chances are of getting a place? Email from the school states they took up to 518 last year but I have spoken to people whose children did not get in with a ranking less than this?


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PostPosted: Sun Oct 22, 2017 10:41 am 
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Rachm82 wrote:
DD1 received a ranking of 459 for Ribston. How realistic do you think her chances are of getting a place? Email from the school states they took up to 518 last year but I have spoken to people whose children did not get in with a ranking less than this?


No offence meant to your friends, but did they actually name Ribston above the school that they were allocated? There does still seem to be an awful lot of misunderstanding in all areas around the way that school admissions work, despite clear explanations being available in the same place as one completes one's CAF.

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PostPosted: Sun Oct 22, 2017 11:09 am 
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If you look at one of the stickies at the top of the Gloucestershire page, one poster says her DD was offered a place at Ribston with rank 464. Obviously there may have been other people with lower ranks who also gained places. The place awarded to rank 518 could have been a child with an sen statement, a looked after child, someone who won a place on appeal or someone who held out on the waiting list until the last minute. Given that there are places for girls at Crypt this year I would say you are still in with a chance. Put it first on your CAF and see what happens.


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PostPosted: Mon Oct 23, 2017 4:35 pm 
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The chances are good this year: the changes at Tommies and Crypt effectively mean an extra 60 grammar school places have been created for girls in the county. I would expect the lowest qualifying ranking to be much further out at Ribston this year than last year.


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PostPosted: Mon Oct 23, 2017 5:02 pm 
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Lysander wrote:
The chances are good this year: the changes at Tommies and Crypt effectively mean an extra 60 grammar school places have been created for girls in the county. I would expect the lowest qualifying ranking to be much further out at Ribston this year than last year.


Lysander would you say the same about Pate's? Love your analysis of how it is all panning out - what's your take on Pate's going further down the rankings this year because of the expansion at Tommies and the popularity of Crypt?


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PostPosted: Mon Oct 23, 2017 5:29 pm 
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I am not Lysander and haven't analysed anything but I think you are pretty safe Debims - Pates have been going lower and lower down the rankings over the last few years even before the expansion of places at other GSs. It was 200 last year so may well go even lower this year. That is why they have 'passed' more children - they don't want a repeat of a few years ago when they had to start 'phoning people who had actually not achieved a ranking. I agree it will be interesting to see just how low they go but as I understand it you are only just over 150 so can probably be pretty relaxed about it all. :)


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PostPosted: Mon Oct 23, 2017 5:59 pm 
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Debims: I think your question requires data that none of us have. Based on previous trends with respect to the relative popularity of the various schools, and the so-called pecking order, I would suggest that Pates will experience the least turblulence out of all the grammars as a result of the Crypt and Tommies changes.

The reasoning behind this is that (1) I am assuming that historically, very few children will have chosen Crypt above Pates, had they qualified for both. (Note "very few" rather than "none".) (2) I am assuming that any exodus of Pates qualifiers to Crypt, as a result of the changes this year, will be very modest, due to the difference in academic results between the two schools. In terms of an exodus from Pates to Tommies: I think that the changes at Tommies will have no result on the uptake of Tommies places by Pates qualifiers. Children qualifying for Pates will take up the high-rank spaces at Tommies: the additional 30 places at Tommies are irrelevant for Pates qualifiers, as they would almost certainly be able to enter within the 120 PAN. If there is an acceleration in the trend to choose Tommies (or Denmark Road) over Pates, then we might see some more spaces available, but these trends are independent of the impact caused by the Crypt/Tommies changes.

Some non-take-up of Pates (and other) places is caused by children out-of-area using the Gloucestershire CEM test as a mock. The test was a week later this year, and on the same day as Birmingham and Walsall in 2017, so may have had fewer test-tourists than in 2016. The other factor to consider is a bounce-back from last year: now people in the 180s and 190s know that they have a good shot at a place, they may be more likely to put it first, whereas in previous years they might have settled for certainty on March 1st by opting for HSFG or STRS.

My conclusion from this is that the best answer I can give to your question is "I really don't know", but I would guess that the Crypt/Tommies changes won't in themselves have much of an impact on Pates places, but test tourism and trends in preferences may do so.


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PostPosted: Tue Oct 24, 2017 12:23 pm 
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Rachm82 wrote:
DD1 received a ranking of 459 for Ribston. How realistic do you think her chances are of getting a place? Email from the school states they took up to 518 last year but I have spoken to people whose children did not get in with a ranking less than this?


Hi Rachm82. Our DD has a similar ranking to yours, and Mrs Chong (Head at Ribston) gave us a nod and wink and said DD was in with a very good chance of getting in. Given that they went up to 518 for the current Y7s, and allowing for the extra numbers of girls who will choose Crypt over Ribston this year, I should think they'll go further down the rankings this year. Although our DD had a higher ranking for Stroud High, I think she is less likely to get a place there - Stroud have done extremely well in the league tables...and the uncertainty at Ribston (new Head etc) means there will be girls who choose Stroud over Ribston. Just put your schools in honest order of preference - that's really the only way to play it. Good luck with your decision.


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PostPosted: Wed Oct 25, 2017 8:07 pm 
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Thank you all! I am feeling a bit more reassured now. Also have heard that it's looking like it could be a 50/50 split with girls and boys starting Crypt next year. Therefore, looking good for those extra spaces at Ribston...Fingers crossed!!


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