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 Post subject: The effect of the Crypt/Tommies changesPosted: Mon Oct 16, 2017 2:54 pm

Joined: Mon Mar 17, 2014 9:07 pm
Posts: 32
I asked the question on another thread, about whether the Crypt changes would put more pressure on Tommies' places. Since no-one answered, I decided to look at the figures myself to see whether it was possible, with results people have posted on this forum, to deduce anything about the likely impact on the number of boys' and girls' places.

So here is my analysis:

1. Comparing Crypt and Pates rankings, one sees a difference of between 28 and 50 between the scores. Crucially, Crypt 158 = Pates 194, Crypt 154 = Pates 192, and Crypt 202 = Pates 230. The first two have a difference of 36, and the final score (which was a non-qualifying score for Pates) has a difference of 28. We know that Pates' candidates needed to qualify in all three disciplines separately, whereas the other grammars did not have such a requirement. This explains the disparity in the final comparison. What we get from this is that there were 36 candidates who qualified for Pates who did not enter for Crypt. The corollary, is that 114 of the Crypt qualifers also qualified for Pates, so when considering your Crypt score, subtract 114 to take account of the rough number who will be opting for Pates instead. (This is based on the assumption that the overwhelming majority of children who qualify for both will opt for Pates).

2. Comparing Crypt and Tommies rankings, one can observe that approximately 40% of the higher-end qualifiers are girls. This is based on the assumption that children sharing results with Crypt will also share with Tommies. We have Crypt 437 = Tommies 265, Crypt 423 = Tommies 256, and Crypt 266 = Tommies 160. (We can only compare results outside the top 150 here, for the comparison to make sense.) In each of these examples, the Tommies score is approximately 60% of the Crypt score, which leads me to the conclusion that it is likely that at least 40% of the Crypt intake (or 60 students) will be girls. Thus the net effect of the Crypt changes on grammar school places will be neutral for boys, and will create an additional 60 places for girls

3. By doubling the pool from which it recruits, Crypt will at a stroke bring in children with much higher rankings. (This is likely to be reflected in a jump in academic results at GCSE in 5 years time.) The girls' schools which will now admit children with lower rankings are likely to see a commensurate fall in demand as a first choice, particularly Ribston, as it seems likely with the Grammar School pecking order as it is, that the bulk of the 60 girls who last year would not have got a Grammar place, will end up at Ribston in 2018.

4. The more girls who gain places at Crypt, the greater the pressure there will be on places at Marling. In most previous years, the higher scoring boys chose Tommies and the lower scoring boys were divided between Marling and Crypt. (Broad generalisation here, I know) Higher scoring girls tended to choose HSFG and lower scoring SHS and Ribston. If we have Higher scoring girls chosing Crypt, that will reduce the pool of places for boys, so those who didn't score high enough for Tommies will be competing for a smaller pool of places at Marling and Crypt.

5. The email sent from Crypt today indicates that they think 600 as a qualifying score is realistic in terms of the places they expect to award. If you take away 114 for Pates, 100 for Tommies, 100 for Denmark Road, then you're looking at ranks from 315 upwards being pretty realistic in terms of getting places. Take away another 50 for private schools and the Stroud schools, and then Crypt could be admitting students 365 - 515. So what they say about "don't worry about low rankings for Crypt" probably is true.

I think the upshot of this is that all of the schools which admit children with higher rankings will see some loss of pupils to Crypt, and that there won't be staggering changes in the last rank admitted at boys' schools, unless Crypt is very popular with high-ranking girls. It seems very likely that Ribson will be admitting girls with a lower rank than last year, and likely that HSFG will too, but the effect will not be so pronounced. I also think that despite the changes at Tommies, there will be no more boys going to grammars in 2018 than in 2017, and it's possible that there will be a net reduction in this number.

That's my best guess - interested to see others' perspectives, as I'm not an expert here

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 Post subject: Re: The effect of the Crypt/Tommies changesPosted: Mon Oct 16, 2017 3:10 pm

Joined: Sat Oct 08, 2011 1:25 pm
Posts: 1934
Wow... you really need to get out more.

You've clearly thought this through so it will be interesting to see come march how close you are.

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 Post subject: Re: The effect of the Crypt/Tommies changesPosted: Mon Oct 16, 2017 4:22 pm

Joined: Wed Oct 09, 2013 2:51 pm
Posts: 40
Lysander, you are now officially like the rest of us - obsessed!
Great work. Will be interested in how it will all play out!

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 Post subject: Re: The effect of the Crypt/Tommies changesPosted: Mon Oct 16, 2017 5:02 pm

Joined: Thu May 18, 2017 9:35 am
Posts: 57
I've absolutely loved reading this!! Well done on such a detailed analysis!! Can't wait to see how accurate you are come March 1st!!

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 Post subject: Re: The effect of the Crypt/Tommies changesPosted: Mon Oct 16, 2017 5:45 pm

Joined: Wed Oct 31, 2012 10:46 pm
Posts: 282
Wow that's quite a post....think I need to reread a few times to take it all in!

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 Post subject: Re: The effect of the Crypt/Tommies changesPosted: Mon Oct 16, 2017 7:19 pm

Joined: Mon Sep 05, 2016 1:18 pm
Posts: 30
Gosh that's interesting. Well done!
How did you get that data - from what people on here have posted about ranks their children have been given?
Do you know - or anyone else - how low down Pates rank, and what the limit number for achieving qualifying status is, please?
Still working on my own stats here.

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 Post subject: Re: The effect of the Crypt/Tommies changesPosted: Mon Oct 16, 2017 7:59 pm

Joined: Thu May 18, 2017 9:35 am
Posts: 57
wileycoyote wrote:
Gosh that's interesting. Well done!
How did you get that data - from what people on here have posted about ranks their children have been given?
Do you know - or anyone else - how low down Pates rank, and what the limit number for achieving qualifying status is, please?
Still working on my own stats here.

Pates will rank right the way down to the very last student that chose to share, but only the top 225 are classed as being qualified.

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 Post subject: Re: The effect of the Crypt/Tommies changesPosted: Tue Oct 17, 2017 6:01 am

Joined: Sat Mar 03, 2012 9:08 am
Posts: 153
Hi...one of my friend's son has got 220s for Crypt and 270s for Tommie's....

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 Post subject: Re: The effect of the Crypt/Tommies changesPosted: Tue Oct 17, 2017 6:33 am

Joined: Wed Oct 31, 2012 10:46 pm
Posts: 282
dr.watson wrote:
Hi...one of my friend's son has got 220s for Crypt and 270s for Tommie's....

That's interesting. The first I've heard of that way round?!

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 Post subject: Re: The effect of the Crypt/Tommies changesPosted: Tue Oct 17, 2017 8:06 am

Joined: Sat Oct 08, 2011 1:25 pm
Posts: 1934
Watermelon8 wrote:
dr.watson wrote:
Hi...one of my friend's son has got 220s for Crypt and 270s for Tommie's....

That's interesting. The first I've heard of that way round?!

Me too, and strangely if the 12 I know, they all correlate quite well. I wouldn't be surprised if Dr Watson has been given mixed up info, because the other way round would fit perfectly.

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