Rankings needed to be confident of a place

[Lysander]

No sinister intent from my stats on admissions: they're not intended for parents whose dc get in the Pates 150: more for those who are wondering whether their child will get a grammar place at all. It's really handy to have the Crypt rankings as they serve as a substitute for an absolute score, giving the lie of the land across all seven grammar schools. The Pates rankings would work just as well, but unfortunately I didn't have as much data (all gleaned from posts on this forum), as fewer people posted their Pates scores.

[onthefence]

Sorry to be the bearer of bad news but we all know where you live, onthefence...

There are a lot of fences in Gloucestershire. I will take my chances.

[atomic123]

Sorry for being such an idiot...

Why does the crypt go to 800 and the others 1-3 hundred?

Also for example if we look at Marling with a rank of 340....is that rank specific to that school or as a county in total?

How would a child ranked 300 get into marling if there are just 150 places available? Is this based on children who may have marling as a 2nd choice being ranked higher than them..but would choose their first choice if they were accepted?
Thanks

[onthefence]

Schools only see the scores for those sitters whose parents have chosen to share their results with them. No girls are going to share their results with Tommies or Marling but they may do for the mixed schools. So, if there are 1200 people taking the 11+, the single sex schools will have a maximum of, say, 600 'shares' and the mixed schools could, potentially, have all pupils share with them. Many parents will choose to share their child's results with all eligible schools, which helps to explain why Crypt went so low. Others may be dead set on or against one school; those based north of Cheltenham and Gloucester may not wish to share with the Stroud schools and vice-versa. So in practice, each school has a slightly different cohort share with them.

The rest is due to popularity, as you suggest. Parents in Cheltenham, for example, may put Marling on their forms even though they have no intention of sending their son there because if they qualify for Tommies or Pate's they may send them to one of those two schools. If they don't quality for Pate's or Tommies then they can tell all their friends that their child 'passed' the 11+ because they qualified for a grammar school. Much of it is game theory.

[steppemum]

atomic

each school does its own set of ranks.
So, 340 for Marling may be the same child who is on Tommies list at number 360.
The numbers are not across the county.
Crypt went down to weird numbers because they ended up with places unfilled.
So a child who had not passed for any of the schools, then received a pass and ranking for Crypt, after March.

How does a child with rank 300 get into Marling?

So lots of parents tick the box to share with all the schools, so little Johnny, ticks the boxes to share with all of them.
He gets put into the list of every school, so 140 on Marlings list, 190 on Pates list and 150 on Tommies list (for example)

If Johnny goes to Tommies, he is removed form Marlings list, and so the child at number 151 gets in.
Multiply that by all the schools and all the kids and basically not many of the 150 who are given a rank actually end up at that school.
In particular everyone ticks the Pates box, just in case! So all the people who go to Pates then come off the lists for the other schools.

[atomic123]

Thanks for the explanation everyone. You are so helpful and knowledgeable

Kind regards

[Amber]

I have to say that if I had any more DC going through the system and Lysander (or Amber for that matter) put forward a theory or some analysis, I'd be reading it like a shot as they seem to generally be spot on.

Flattered as I am, I think Lysander is the person for this not me! I am not into the stats but for what my thoughts are worth, here you go.

If you are h*ll bent on Pates and nowhere else, your chances of a place are maybe around 1 in 8 to 1 in 6. If it is Pates or STR then I reckon about 1 in 5 or maybe 1 in 4. These are based on nothing more than a quick calculator job and gut instinct so don't ask me to explain in detail. Most of the children getting into these two schools will be predictable and children who you would expect all along to perform well. Likewise, HSFG will probably cream off most of the high-performing girls who miss Pates and don't live in Stroud. This may be changing over the next few years depending on how the new head is perceived, and whether Crypt manages to integrate its girls well (and on their GCSE results in 5 years). HSFG has seen a decline in retention at sixth form which they will be hoping to reverse; the Crypt co ed thing may just tip the balance for Y7 parents wondering which way to jump.

If you have a daughter and she has sat the test, I reckon you have a really high chance of a place - much better than 50-50, maybe even a 75% chance, if you are prepared for her to go to any of the grammars which takes girls.

If you have a boy, your chances are lower, maybe 1 in 3 (if you are happy to go for any grammar, including Marling, which being in Stroud may not be feasible for all), unless Crypt is going to try to tinker with the gender balance of the Y7 intake to prevent it getting to the point where it could theoretically be all girl (it won't be, of course, but it may end up girl heavy if they don't).

The thing you won't read on here is that there is a hierarchy and no matter what anyone says, the pecking order will dictate the allocation of places. I won't spell it out as I will get shot down, but there is at least one grammar school which performs only very slighter better results-wise than a non-selective school, and parents choosing grammar for academic reasons might not want to run with it. Of course, there are many other good reasons to choose a school and all schools offer something different.


The fly in the ointment last year was Crypt, who pitched in way too high and massively overestimated their appeal. They had been at the low end of the hierarchy but seemed to assume the mere act of going co ed was going to make them second choice for disappointed Pates-hopeful parents. This didn't happen, with now infamous results. One hopes that they have got their act together this year as it messed everything up for prospective Marling and Ribston pupils especially.

Overall, you have around a 50-50 chance of a place at a grammar (though not a particular one - this obviously increases as you go down the pecking order, sorry), slightly more if you are a girl and slightly less if you are a boy.

As I say, not a scientific analysis!