Rankings needed to be confident of a place

[onthefence]

Apologies if this has already been mention but the first and fourth stickies, 'ranks only please' at the top of the Glos page are interesting both to compare which rankings are likely to safely gain the offer of a place in March and also later on after the reconsideration process. As another poster has mentioned, Crypt is difficult to calculate, not only because of last year's miscalculation, but also because I imagine it is difficult to predict how many boys and girls may be interested in attending it next year, now there is already one mixed cohort.

[Lysander]

This is what I got to from the available data for the 2018 admissions.

To help for next year, on allocations day (so before the reshuffle caused by Crypt undersubscription), we had the following

The last rank admitted to Pates was 176, which was within Crypt PAN
The last rank admitted to STRS was 275, which was in the Crypt 450s
The last rank admitted to Marling was 375, which is approximately Crypt 835
The last rank admitted to SHS was 375, which is approximately Crypt 848
The last rank admitted to Ribston was 503, which is approximately Crypt 1000
Based on 2016 data, when the last rank admitted to HSFG was 314, this would be approximately Crypt 650 (thanks to Jaerund for providing the additional data point that allowed me to calculate this)

Of these, Marling, SHS, and Ribston are most likely to have been affected by the shift in Crypt qualification rank, and it's possible that HSFG has lost one or two to Crypt. My estimate, is that after Crypt appeals have gone through to fill the final 28 places, these will shift along the waiting lists by another seven to ten each, plus there'll be children that haven't already got grammar places who will no doubt get through.

So by Crypt scores, I think we can say that for 2018 admission:

<150 needed to get a Pates place
<450 needed to get a STRS place
<650 needed to get a HSFG place
<850 needed to get a Marling place
<860 needed to get a SHS place
<1000 needed to get a Ribston place

And of course <800 to guarantee a Crypt place, but it should have been <925...

[starcrazy]

Thanks Lysander for posting that, it’s useful to have collated in one place

[jearund]

As an addendum to this, note that allocation day rankings are not the end of the story. After appeals things move a lot. Last year, the Crypt appeals in particular had a big effect on Ribston. They went down to at least 536 from the waiting list in July (1058 for Crypt to give a common reference point).

[steppemum]

Is it just me that really doesn't get that table that Lysander posted?
(sorry Lysander)

surely all that table says is that there is a total of 1000 grammar school places?

The rank you get varies from school to school, so getting a rank of say 160 for Pates, does not let you know where you are on other schools lists.
and, apart from Pates, which is a bit of special case, the school people accept is rarely to do with actual rank.

eg. dc gets in top 150 for SHS and gets 197 for HSFG. The parents are much more likely to choose based on where they live, than on the two rankings, as both are pretty much sure of a place.

Also, you can't rank boys schools against girls, because you can't send a boy to a girl's school.

I am just failing to see what the table tells us.

Is it just an exercise in ranking the schools against each other? Which is higher scoring etc? Because if so, again, you need to separate girls and boys. But that doesn't take into account that schools move up and down that list.
For example, what will Crypt do this year? Will lots have applied to it? Who knows.
SHS has just had superlative results - will it make it more popular? Will it become first choice for more parents? Who knows.

Sorry, maybe I am missing something.
I understand the first part - last rank admitting to Marling was number.... but again, the letter from the school tells you that. Not just for 2018, but for 2017 and 2016 too.

But putting them in that list? Don't get it.
sorry!

[RedMaple]

Lysander's analysis is specific to last year's ranking, which was very complicated and I found it useful, as someone whose DS was ranked deep in the twilight zone and could possibly have got a place at either Marling or Crypt.

There were several points in a changing situation where a few of us were trying to work out what was happening or likely to happen with the Crypt numbers and Lysander's comparative rankings analysis and theories were incredibly well thought out. The first table usefully puts in one place all the rankings offered on Allocations day which answers the OP's question. The second table isn't a sinister exercise in comparing schools against each other, although even with parental choice and location, it's clear that some GS's are more popular than others - but the problem with Crypt not ranking enough children initially, then ranking 200 extra, then having to go appeals had a knock on effect on Marling and Ribston in particular. It became inevitable that the analysis would look at Crypt rankings versus the other schools.

Hope this helps! I have to say that if I had any more DC going through the system and Lysander (or Amber for that matter) put forward a theory or some analysis, I'd be reading it like a shot as they seem to generally be spot on.

[HappyPapaPig]

Thanks for posting the numbers and analysis. It is very helpful. Of course, the number of applicants to each school varies every year. So it is unlikely for these numbers to be exact. But they should be instructive in the real numbers for this year. Let's wait for the results to come out and we can share the rankings here.

[steppemum]

I totally understand the first table, useful to have all the ranks offered together in one place.

And I did not say it was a sinister comparison of schools, there are many places where people have compared which school is attracting more kids.

But with the second table I still stand by my opinion that it really doesn't tell you anything in general terms. fair enough if you found it helpful with last year's mess, but that doesn't apply to a normal year.

[onthefence]

It is very easy to panic but the results letter from each school you have shared with makes it reasonably clear how likely it is that your child will gain a place, based on previous years. There is an element of 'grey' at the bottom of the rankings of course. Reading this forum last year was, if nothing else, preparation of the kind of ball park we were looking for before we opened the email. If you want to know a pretty safe ranking for the schools you have shared with on allocations day (not after reconsideration) I would stick my neck out, look into my crystal ball, and say: -

Pate's: 160
STR: 260
Marling and SHS: 340 (but with SHS' strong results maybe higher?)
Crypt: Who knows. I don't want to speculate but presumably 800?
HSFG: 270
Ribston: 480

All these schools will go lower (maybe far lower after reconsideration) but it gives you a ballpark idea of where the worse case scenario cut off may be come March 1st. I have basically gone 15ish up the rankings from last year or the year before, whichever had the highest cut off mark, because the OP wanted to know the rankings 'to be confident of a place'. Sorry if I have muddied the waters further in my attempt to help but as none of you know where I live I will risk it.

[stroudydad]

All these schools will go lower (maybe far lower after reconsideration) but it gives you a ballpark idea of where the worse case scenario cut off may be come March 1st. I have basically gone 15ish up the rankings from last year or the year before, whichever had the highest cut off mark, because the OP wanted to know the rankings 'to be confident of a place'. Sorry if I have muddied the waters further in my attempt to help but as none of you know where I live I will risk it.

Sorry to be the bearer of bad news but we all know where you live, onthefence...