Right lovely peeps,worried sick...what are our chances

My DD got the following:

Pates 900 odd didn’t qualify
Ribston ranked 435
High school for girls 443
Stroud high 411

My DD is desperate for Stroud High

Please help!

I've quoted a similar question (and reply) on another thread. Based on this, SHS looks borderline (at 411 I'd think probably not). However Ribston went down to at least 503 on Allocation Day last year and a lot lower than that (at least 536) after appeals (from the waiting list). So realistically she may not get SHS but she's in with a good chance for Ribston.
I believe HSFG went down to 368 (from figures on here) so that's also unlikely.

You sound in a similar position to us!

DD got 440 for HSFG and would love to go, but I know our chances are not good. We didn’t share with Crypt/Ribston/Stroud as logistically we couldn’t make it work. It’s HSFG or local comp for my DD.

Looking at last years scores, you should be ok for Ribston, Stroud is iffy and HSFG is unlikely. I’m no expert though, so other folk - please correct me if I’m wrong!

Just to say if our child is borderline with their rank then still put that choice first on CAF (assuming you want it). Then on allocation day you will probably get your second choice but you can then ask for reconsideration for your first choice. If they say no again then you can ask to go on the waiting list.

If you feel you have grounds for appeal then you can do this as well - it is separate from the waiting list.

A word of caution on lowest rank - a child got a place with a lower rank than my DD on reconsideration because they had an educational statement but this lower rank was mentioned as the rank submitted to the following year. It was about 50 odd places off the original rank. (Not sure I have explained that well but hopefully you get what I mean). I am also not sure if they also refer to the rank of children who got in on an appeal.

My DD got in on appeal - long process but worth it so thought I would just share the initial process.

Thanks guys,all starting to make sense.

Hiya 2019nerves . We’re in similar position to you. Ranked literally just below you for SHS. Apparently Ribston now taking an extra 30 girls. With that and the second year of girls at Crypt AND that more people seem to be sharing each year we’re hoping that the list for SHS may go further down. I don’t think even the best statistician can help on this one! Best of luck!