Hi keepcalm - this is a tricky one. There are actually 5 different lists - distance, inner area academic and music, and then outer area academic and music.
I doubt the distance one would move at all, or maybe 1 or 2 spaces if that, given that there are only 20 places this year on distance. (If you live virtually on top of the school, why would you turn it down?)
So that leaves the music and academic lists, which will move, although how far is v hard to say. If people ahead of you decide not to stay on the CI list, you would move up, but it's only when someone actually gives up a place to go private or to move house that real spaces become available and the lucky DC in position 1 gets in.
If you post which list you're on, people might respond if they know specifically about that list, either from this year or previous years. Good luck!