Judd with 404?

[relaxedMum77]

We don't find out our scores until tomorrow (like many others i believe). I am also confused about the lower pass mark (106 each section)? Does this mean that although there will be kids with the 420 and around that mark... that the "lower end" were much lower? it's all quite confusing really. At DS's school everyone i know so far has passed... even middle band kids who were around Level 4's at end of year 5,

[mystery]

Are you talking a lot of children there? Do middle-band kids not normally pass at your school? You can imagine that there will always be some kids banded in the middle at some schools who are in the top 25% of the population - it's just something went wrong along the way somewhere or other. And where does the "middle" end anyhow?

We have more than usual at our school but I'm sure that's an explicable fluke. It wouldn't make sense if a higher proportion had passed everywhere - unless of course they're tryin to make a huge argument for building more grammar schools in Kent!

Anyhow, data from another site (useful article on there too) shows this is not the case:

ent Test Results 2014
2014 2013
Sat Kent Test
12990 12064
Grammar Assessed:
Kent
4043 3998
Grammar Assessed:
Out County
1696 1488
Grammar Assessed:
Home Educated
14 8
Number of Grammar
School Places
4767 4570


So maybe the test is "better" in some way than the old one, or maybe the discrimination around the pass cut-off score is dodgier than before. Notice that confidence intervals are never quoted on 11 plus tests?

[WesterhamMum]

I rang Judd this morning as my son got 403 and I wanted to book him onto the open morning next week and they told me that it looks like the scores are really spread out this year which is what they wanted. She also said that to her knowledge no child got full marks and that 403 is the highest score she has heard of so far. I know it is still early days as many poor people are still waiting for scores but things certainly look different this year and sadly, I do not think anyone will know for certain until March.

[DaddyOh]

Mystery -

That site also says that reasoning makes up 50% of the test (it doesn't it makes up just over a third obviously).

It also assumes that the change in marks is down to a change in the standard deviation of the normalisation rather than a change in the mean without any justification. I guess he is hoping that's true as it will be good for his business but it's a bit off to put an article out assuming it's true without giving any justification as to what the assumption is based on.



Having said that - I assume he got the data correct as he only has to cut and paste that from KCC!



DaddyOh

[Peter]

The site makes no mention of or assumption of standard deviation of normalisation as you assert. This is not a national standardisation, otherwise scores would be far higher, but it will still be a bell curve somewhat squashed. Sorry to be technical, but the author has carefully avoided making such assumptions on limited information when explaining it to lay readers. However, it still obviously confuses the technically minded! In one sense it doesn't matter. What is is! And 21% of Kent children were assessed selective, the sole actual purpose of the test. Likewise the second assumption is completely untrue. The initial error made as the article was produced at speed has now been corrected. Thanks and thanks also for the somewhat patronising last sentence!.

[Essex2Kent]

For Judd et all selectives it will basically come down to how many children got 420 and below... they will fill from the top so if there are 155 with 420 we have no chance.

My twins got 403 and 405 and we are hoping for Judd. As far as we are aware the scores were

Max for English was 138
Max for Maths was 141
Max for Reasoning was 141 as well.

I think some information from KCC on how many got top would help...

But if no Judd then hopefully Skinners will accept those marks? Just a longer commute.

[DaddyOh]

Peter-

"...The site makes no mention of or assumption of standard deviation of normalisation as you assert..."


Your first point is a clear assumption that the first moment hasn't changed and the second point on the article is a clear assumption that the second moment has been reduced.

If that's true it's good information but it would be better if there was a source.

"...it still obviously confuses the technically minded!..."

Agree with that completely!

[Mumof2boyskent]

In my head I am thinking anything over 400 is looking good for super selective, I suppose the more people that post scores on the forum will help to give us an idea, albeit from a small sample. We get scores tomorrow.

[WesterhamMum]

Sorry, I was not clear. When I said that Judd had told me that to their knowledge there were no children who scored full marks, I meant in all three tests. I was told that the max mark possible is 423 (141 for each of the three papers) but that they think it unlikely that anyone will get that. My son's total of 403 was made up of - Maths 133, English 134 and Reasoning 136.

[Peter]

Please remember that this forum is primarily for lay readers not for statistical language. But no, I don't yet have a source and have as a consequence used deduction without being too specific. What is clear is that this is not a nationally standardised probability distribution that would produce a different pattern, which you appear to be trying to force it into. I have indeed assumed the first moment is 100 (typo corrected) and as the article suggests, will amend this if the further data already requested shows otherwise. However, the range from 69 to 141 and results already out confirming the bunching effect between 100 and 106 fit the model adopted. The confirmation of 106 as around the 21st percentile, is surely evidence that the second moment has been reduced.

Certainly, KCC officers are rightly far too busy attending enquiries from concerned families at present to address such questions, and indeed I am not sure what the point would be at this time. To repeat: what is is. Parents have to respond to the outcomes that they have.