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PostPosted: Fri Oct 13, 2017 8:25 am 
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Joined: Fri Sep 05, 2014 2:36 pm
Posts: 167
Hi came across this.....as a guide maybe?

We now have data from KCC so we have done a quick comparison with last years data - these are very rough calculations so please take them with a pinch of salt! Particularly in the case of the out of area scores for Judd and TOGS where the sample size is tiny.

Making the assumptions (as we did last year), that the scores are distributed in a similar way geographically (east to west), and that children apply for schools in similar proportions as last year, we can look at the numbers and predict where the cut off for the superselectives is likely to be.

If we get more data we may be able to improve on these predictions.

Initial cut-offs:

The Judd School in area 367
The Judd School out of area 400
The Skinners' School 370
TOGS in area 369 - this may be closer to 366 because of the extra class they are taking.
TOGS out of area 386
Dartford Grammar OOA 381
DGGS OOA 366

Please be aware that these are very rough, but it does look like a small increase across the board when compared with last year. Final cut offs are often slightly lower than initial cut offs.

Please, always put the schools in your true order of preference.


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PostPosted: Fri Oct 13, 2017 8:59 pm 
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Joined: Wed Oct 11, 2017 7:56 am
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gravesendgal wrote:
Hi came across this.....as a guide maybe?

We now have data from KCC so we have done a quick comparison with last years data - these are very rough calculations so please take them with a pinch of salt! Particularly in the case of the out of area scores for Judd and TOGS where the sample size is tiny.

Making the assumptions (as we did last year), that the scores are distributed in a similar way geographically (east to west), and that children apply for schools in similar proportions as last year, we can look at the numbers and predict where the cut off for the superselectives is likely to be.

If we get more data we may be able to improve on these predictions.

Initial cut-offs:

The Judd School in area 367
The Judd School out of area 400
The Skinners' School 370
TOGS in area 369 - this may be closer to 366 because of the extra class they are taking.
TOGS out of area 386
Dartford Grammar OOA 381
DGGS OOA 366

Please be aware that these are very rough, but it does look like a small increase across the board when compared with last year. Final cut offs are often slightly lower than initial cut offs.

Please, always put the schools in your true order of preference.


Thank you, very interesting! My son scored 383 and Dartford has been his first choice - would have been below the initial cut last year. We were going to put it down anyway but nice to think he could make the first cut perhaps.


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PostPosted: Sat Oct 14, 2017 10:06 am 
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Joined: Fri Sep 29, 2017 2:19 pm
Posts: 124
Hi

How do you calculate this please. I'm adding numbers on spreadsheet and have no idea what I'm doing! Dd got 383 out of area but in Kent and can't work out her chances.


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PostPosted: Sat Oct 14, 2017 10:44 am 
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Joined: Tue Oct 03, 2017 9:16 am
Posts: 70
Great analysis Gravesend Girl, do you have a similar analysis for in county. Understand that IC for Dartford Grammar for Boys last year was 352, will it be higher


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PostPosted: Sat Oct 14, 2017 11:12 am 
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Joined: Tue Feb 24, 2009 9:50 am
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Location: surrey
But TOGS offered 180 this year (2017) so next year is no different, still 180, so the cut offs for next year are likely to be the same ie for 2018 372 in area and 395 Govs/ooc


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PostPosted: Sat Oct 14, 2017 11:21 am 
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Joined: Thu Oct 17, 2013 7:35 am
Posts: 131
The 'other' forum has the scores slightly higher - Skinners at a predicted 373 and TGS out of area at 393 for example.

Having been in the situation where the scores changed dramatically in the first year of the 'new' test, I would say put the schools in your genuine order of preference!

And do think about the impact of a long commute if you are OOC - my son says it's obvious by Friday who has long commutes home (plus the ease of getting to meetings at the school/parents evenings/drop offs for trips - we've had to be at Skinners for 0445 before now - but luckily we are very close to the school. If we'd had to come 20+ miles, it would have been a pain!)


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PostPosted: Sat Oct 14, 2017 11:22 am 
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Joined: Thu Oct 17, 2013 7:35 am
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Sorry, misread the title of the thread - this is from last year. The current predictions being made are for marginally higher cut offs - two or three points....


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PostPosted: Sat Oct 14, 2017 11:31 am 
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Joined: Thu Mar 24, 2016 12:24 am
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catcool wrote:
But TOGS offered 180 this year (2017) so next year is no different, still 180, so the cut offs for next year are likely to be the same ie for 2018 372 in area and 395 Govs/ooc


May not be! Because, the number of governor places for 2018 is 35 compared to 41 for 2017. That means, the cut-off for OOC places can go higher this time. Just an opinion...


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PostPosted: Sat Oct 14, 2017 1:03 pm 
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Joined: Tue Sep 05, 2017 8:51 pm
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My DS got 396. He is a OOC student. Does anyone know what were the marks of the last student to get through to Judd in OOC list. It can be 3/4/5 or the last list. I am not sure if 400 for OOC is for the last candidate or the first list? Can someone help. Thanks


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PostPosted: Sat Oct 14, 2017 2:22 pm 
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Joined: Wed Mar 01, 2017 6:08 pm
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Hi 400 was for the last place offered last year at the Judd

Our son got 397 and was 7th on the waiting list for OOC when Judd took control of the list in early May.

It is worth looking at the overall scores as in the previous year 396 was the initial cut off score but it went down to 391 after reallocations so every year is different.

Just be sure to put it top of your schools list when putting in your application as you nay be fine.

It is also well worth considering appealing if you feel Judd is the best school for your son.In the end we decided it was best for our son to attend a grammar school with less travelling time but at least 2 boys from our area appealed successfully both with scores of 397. However you won't need to consider that until initial places are offered.


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