Hello, first time through this marvellous process with DS..

We live in Pembury so all three are similar distances away. We really like all of them but are probably more drawn to Skinners.

Aware that we're above the current 360 Skinners threshold (plus only 5.4 miles away) and slightly below the current historic Judd April reallocation cut-off (373 last year).
Ordinarily I guess we'd just put Skinners as first choice, but does that 'tactically' exclude a shot at Judd? Should we be putting Judd as first choice on the off-chance that marks shift, or would that jeopardise Skinners by having it as second choice? Looking at it the other way around, it seems like a wasted choice to put Judd second right?

How 'certain' could we realistically be that we'd get into Skinners if we put that as first choice?

I expect we’re over-thinking this but any advice/insight appreciated

You are over thinking this. If Skinner's is your first choice, put it first, if you don't get it your second choice becomes your first. Don't try to game the system! The schools don't know where you have out them. There should be a section on the Equal Preference System on your council website (or search on here - sorry, I'm on my phone).

When you say 'Does that tactically exclude a shot at Judd ?' , it seems to imply you'd actually prefer Judd , given the choice . If that is the case you should certainly put Judd first as this wont affect your chance of getting into Skinners' if Judd ends up being unsuccessful. You'd then still get the Skinners' offer (distance pending) .

There can be a temptation to value a place higher because it takes a higher score to get in but they're both great schools. Definitely just list them in order of what you would prefer. If your son had a score which would historically have certainly got Judd, or if Skinners was still fully superselective, which would you list first?

It's honestly quite straightforward. You put your genuine first choice first, regardless of likelihood to get in (Judd?). You put your second choice second (Skinners?). You put a 'banker' third (TWGSB?). You put something else fourth (maybe SKA if you're in Pembury?). There is zero benefit to not using all your preferences.

The way to think of it is, in the 'back room' before 2nd March, you might actually have as many as four 'pre-offers' (ie you have applied to four schools, all four schools will rank you according to their criteria - completely unaware of your preference order - and all four of them might be able to offer you a place). Kent simply looks at which schools have 'pre-offered' you a place, and then they will actually offer you whichever one of them is your highest preference. Do not try to game the system - it only ends in tears. Always, always put your genuine order of preference.

I think this is probably the crux of our question, and is down to us not yet fully understanding the system (let alone trying to game it!)

Just found this - which by the look of it has the overview of the process that we're looking for:
https://www.kent.gov.uk/__data/assets/p ... -areas.pdf

Some great points made already (thank you). I think what this boils down to is that we're just not sure yet. There's only so much that we've seen/felt/read on the visits - then toss into the mix the (often conflicting, sometimes baseless) views of of a 10yr old - and you seem to have a pretty good recipe for family indecision!

..it doesn't help that the critical mass of visits/interactions abates right after the results come out (eg. Skinners not even answering the phone yesterday). Until we had scores in hand we felt a little 'imposterish' at all the grammars let alone the super selectives! I'd love the chance to go back and have those discussions again from a 'buying' rather than 'browsing' standpoint!

Skinners broke up on Wednesday 16th October so that’s probably why no one answered the phone. I would be led by your child. Your in a great position just put the favourite School first. My son is year 11 at Skinners and loves it. It’s a great school and the boys are lovely and get on so well. I am sure Judd and TWBGS are equally as good and you are lucky to have so much choice. So personally your son has to go to the school so probably would just let him choose.

Are they not doing post-results open days this year? They usually do. Allows you to see the schools as a 'buyer', as you say.

Skinners broke up on Wednesday and reception was probably shut on Thursday and Friday, I think the office may possibly be open next week.

You are in a fantastic position, I have 1 in year 13 at Skinners' and one who left 2years ago, it is an amazing school. Saying that, they have friends who have had similarly good experiences at Judd and I have a couple of friends who had a child at each at the same time! I also have friends who would only choose TWGSB. Go with the school your son likes the best - he will get a great education - don't try and overthink it just put them in your TRUE order of preference.

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Knowledge is knowing that a tomato is a fruit, wisdom is not putting it in a fruit salad !

There is one on 29th Oct but fully booked - I've emailed about a waiting list / cancellations but unlikely to hear until after half term. Incidentally, if anyone here had booked to go and now doesn't want their space, please message me as we'd like it (& sounds like op could do with it too!)