Judd's predicted cut off for 2019 OOC places

[Dani432]

My DS has scored 407 and we are OOC but will eventually move into Kent if he gets the admission. We were initially confident that probably 407 might be ok for Judd's OOC places but Kent published its 2019 Kent test results today and it looks like the last year's 402 cut off could increase significantly.

Here is my analysis (I am no statistics expert though!) using 2016 to 2019 data from Kent published results (https://www.kent.gov.uk/education-and-c ... test#tab-5" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;):

OOC pass
2016 2,188 (Boys: 1,138)
2017 2,757 (Boys: 1,409)
2018 3,109 (Boys: 1,560)
2019 3,250 (Boys: 1,745)

Boys who scored More than 400
2016 134
2017 129
2018 238
2019 350

Judd cut off - using the actual information from 2016 to 2018

a) Assuming all boys with score of more than 400 applied (or will apply in 2019) to Judd then the cut off is:

2016 422
2017 420
2018 423
2019 422
[It means that there are enough boys who scored more than 422 to fulfil all Judd's OOC places!!]


b) Assuming 90 boys go to Dartford and rest apply to Judd then the predicted cut off is:

2016 406 (actual cut off: 395?)
2017 402 (actual cut off: 395)
2018 410 (actual cut off: 402)
2019 415 (actual cut off: Not known)

c) Using the predicted vs actual cut off in (b) above, the calculated %age of students who scored more than the actual cut off (e.g. 402 in 2018) but didn’t apply for Kent OOC positions were:

2016 35% of boys who were above cut off but didn't go for Judd
2017 35% of boys who were above cut off but didn't go for Judd
2018 48% of boys who were above cut off but didn't go for Judd
2019 Not known

It seems like more and more people are taking the test and then going for their local grammars/independents (last year 48% boys were above 402 cut off but didnt put Judd as
a top priority).

Expected Judd OOC cut off for 2019

- Assuming 30% boys meet the Judd's cut off criteria but don’t apply for OOC positions 411
- Assuming 35% boys meet the Judd's cut off criteria but don’t apply for OOC positions 409
- Assuming 40% boys meet the Judd's cut off criteria but don’t apply for OOC positions 408
- Assuming 48% boys meet the Judd's cut off criteria but don’t apply for OOC positions 407

Based on the numbers of boys passed this year from OOC and also the score they have been able to achieve it looks like a pretty tight call. I still hope that 407 will be enough but it seems touch and go.

Quite keen to hear from the statisticians on this forum if I have misinterpreted the results. And I know no one can tell before March next year

[olucares]

My DS has scored 407 and we are OOC but will eventually move into Kent if he gets the admission. We were initially confident that probably 407 might be ok for Judd's OOC places but Kent published its 2019 Kent test results today and it looks like the last year's 402 cut off could increase significantly.

Here is my analysis (I am no statistics expert though!) using 2016 to 2019 data from Kent published results (https://www.kent.gov.uk/education-and-c ... test#tab-5" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;):

OOC pass
2016 2,188 (Boys: 1,138)
2017 2,757 (Boys: 1,409)
2018 3,109 (Boys: 1,560)
2019 3,250 (Boys: 1,745)

Boys who scored More than 400
2016 134
2017 129
2018 238
2019 350

Judd cut off - using the actual information from 2016 to 2018

a) Assuming all boys with score of more than 400 applied (or will apply in 2019) to Judd then the cut off is:

2016 422
2017 420
2018 423
2019 422
[It means that there are enough boys who scored more than 422 to fulfil all Judd's OOC places!!]


b) Assuming 90 boys go to Dartford and rest apply to Judd then the predicted cut off is:

2016 406 (actual cut off: 395?)
2017 402 (actual cut off: 395)
2018 410 (actual cut off: 402)
2019 415 (actual cut off: Not known)

c) Using the predicted vs actual cut off in (b) above, the calculated %age of students who scored more than the actual cut off (e.g. 402 in 2018) but didn’t apply for Kent OOC positions were:

2016 35% of boys who were above cut off but didn't go for Judd
2017 35% of boys who were above cut off but didn't go for Judd
2018 48% of boys who were above cut off but didn't go for Judd
2019 Not known

It seems like more and more people are taking the test and then going for their local grammars/independents (last year 48% boys were above 402 cut off but didnt put Judd as
a top priority).

Expected Judd OOC cut off for 2019

- Assuming 30% boys meet the Judd's cut off criteria but don’t apply for OOC positions 411
- Assuming 35% boys meet the Judd's cut off criteria but don’t apply for OOC positions 409
- Assuming 40% boys meet the Judd's cut off criteria but don’t apply for OOC positions 408
- Assuming 48% boys meet the Judd's cut off criteria but don’t apply for OOC positions 407

Based on the numbers of boys passed this year from OOC and also the score they have been able to achieve it looks like a pretty tight call. I still hope that 407 will be enough but it seems touch and go.

Quite keen to hear from the statisticians on this forum if I have misinterpreted the results. And I know no one can tell before March next year

hi, the figure for 2019 boys who scored 400+ is not 350. The 350 figure includes Kent Independent. The total OOC pass as well is not 3250, it's about 500 less than that. I'm not doubting your predictions, I'm just saying for a more like for like prediction, you need to include Kent Independent figures for your 2018, 2017 & 2016 figures.

[Herewego1]

Wow! Does anyone know how to do this for in county?!