227 good enough?

[lovelivelife]

Hello guys my ds got 227 in tiffins does my son have any chance at all To be honest many people from Sutton Grammar came to to do the test for tiffins for practice even some people will move on to Wallington wilson QE boys and the Sloguh schools. I think my son has a good chance of getting ion what do you think and your ds has been in this situation
thanks

[London_Mum]

As you have said - nothing is certain. Every year people take exams with no intention of taking up an offer - as mocks for other grammar schools or the private schools which hold their exams in January. A lot depends on how many people with higher scores decide not to list Tiffins or accept an offer there thus freeing up places for those on slightly lower scores.

227 is in all honesty probably borderline.
Last year, with a score of 227, you would have missed an offer in March and narrowly missed a place from the waiting list too so last year, 227 would not have been high enough to get in. The final offers went to those with a score of 229.

That doesn't mean however that the same scores will be used as the cut-off this year - it depends on how well everyone else has done and how many high scorers don't actually want a place at Tiffins.

[SunlampVexesEel]

227 is equivalent to being 18.4% from the top of the candidate population.

So... if there are 1685 candidates (number from last year) your son would rank 311th.

140 places were awarded last year.

Now obviously not all those taking the exam will attend as it's not possible to go to more than one school and many people apply to multiple schools... so the offers will extend beyond the 140th ranking.

Last year the final cutoff was 229. 229 is equivalent to being 16.8% from the top with a rank of 283.

At the high 280 (and low end 140 ) there are few candidates (it's a normal distribution mean 100 std 15 for each test; with 70 and 140 being the buckets for tails of the distribution); but at the middle there are alot of candidates on the same scores. So for example there will be around 14 candidates with a score of 228.

Definitely borderline and will probably be very nerve wracking!

Good Luck!

Regards
SVE

[ClappedOutMum]

It's so good to have a statistician join in that really knows their stuff (on this and other threads).

Well done and thanks, SunlampVexesEel! All very useful.

[lovelivelife]

Thanks for your informative replies but can i ask my cousin had a score of 225 last year but got offeredd please tell me how that is

[tiffinboys]

In simple terms,

1. Fewer children took the test for 2011 entry.
2. Many children scoring above 225 choose to go to other schools.

This year, it appears that more than 1700 took the first test and many more would be taking the late test on 30 November. It also looks like there would be more first/higher preferences for Tiffins. The children sitting the late tests had nearly 2 months of extra prepration time. These factors are likely to effect cut-off scores. Last year's cut-off was 229 and I think, that this years would be higher.

[lovelivelife]

I wanted to say how many people will go to other schools as i said many people from QE Wallington Wilson SUTTON!!! Dr challoeners Langley Herschel Slough Burnham Chesham Aylesbury I would reckon about 150 people altogether especially sutton

[tiffinboys]

Sutton has excellent grammar schools and traditionally, fewer children from Sutton come to Tiffin and is borne out by their published admission data.

For last few years, pressure on Tiffins is from Langley grammar's catchment area. Following changes to Reading schools admission policies, this is very much likely to increase.

[London_Mum]

A child with a lower score than the March cut-off can still get a place by one of 3 methods:
- On appeal (if they win their appeal) they will get in.
- If they have a statement of special needs naming the school, and have passed the test but with a lower score than others, they will get in.
- From the waiting list. Children on the list with a score lower than those who got places offered in March can be offered places thoughout the Summer because, as people turn down offers, it frees up places for those with slightly lower scores.

It is important to remember that every year the cut-off score changes and unless your child has scored very highly indeed, there are no certainties about getting a place.
Whilst fewer people come from Sutton to Kingston, Reading has changed grammar school admissions this year so more people from that area may be forced to apply if they nolonger have a more local school that will accept them.
The other factor to consider is that the numbers taking the test increase every single year so each year there is greater competition for places. With an extra test date added this year, some fear the total numbers applying will be much greater than anticipated. But it may not be - nobody knows yet.

It is just impossible to know whether those who score well this year will want a place if offered one. It is impossible to know how many people will score identical marks eg there could be 9 children on 228 or there could be 15 with a score of 228 which would make a huge difference to the chances of those with a score of 227 getting a place.

On 227 your son definitely has a chance of a place at Tiffins but, looking at data from past years, it isn't a certainty in the way that it would be if he had scored say 20 points higher. It is just a case now of waiting until March to see where the cut-off score falls and hoping that, if the cut-off is the same as last year (231), that the waiting list moves quickly enough for him to eventually get an offer.

[tiffinboys]

Let us all hope and pray for the best.