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PostPosted: Sat Mar 03, 2018 9:11 am 
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Joined: Wed Oct 04, 2017 9:32 am
Posts: 48
Thank you tiffinboys/stroller.

My assumptions are :-

* Mean = 100
* Std deviation = 15
* Score Position 180th = 106.5

Based on the above assumptions, I estimated candidates taking stage 2 exam : 542


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PostPosted: Sat Mar 03, 2018 9:18 am 
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Joined: Fri Nov 11, 2011 11:00 pm
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Location: Surrey
:wink: you are assuming that none of the top 180 candidates put other schools as their top priority.

The calculations are as good as the assumptions one makes.


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PostPosted: Sat Mar 03, 2018 9:31 am 
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tiffinboys wrote:
:wink: you are assuming that none of the top 180 candidates put other schools as their top priority.

The calculations are as good as the assumptions one makes.


Precisely my point, neither does TGS until all offers have been accepted. ;-)


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PostPosted: Sat Mar 03, 2018 9:40 am 
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Location: Surrey
TGS knows the exact rank of the candidate to whom 180th place has been offered currently. How can it not be?


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PostPosted: Sat Mar 03, 2018 9:46 am 
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We are talking about the same thing.

When you say rank candidate I was saying score position.

We are on the same page. The formula I presented is based on rank candidate position of 180th being 106.5

The school has no idea which of those rank candidates will accept.(as they have no access to school preference of candidates)


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PostPosted: Sat Mar 03, 2018 9:47 am 
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Location: Surrey
Giving up..
We are not on the same page. :wink:


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PostPosted: Sat Mar 03, 2018 10:20 am 
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Hi stateschoolman.

TGS has made offers to 180 girls, but these girls are not the top 180 girls who sat the test.

They are the top 180 girls who put TGS high enough on the CAF.

The girl who came top at TGS might have ended up preferring a different school altogether and therefore would not be included in the 180 who got a TGS offer this week. This is how you end up with the 180th girl to be offered a place being different to the 180th girl in test result order.

Do you see now?


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PostPosted: Sat Mar 03, 2018 10:53 am 
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Joined: Wed Oct 04, 2017 9:32 am
Posts: 48
Thanks and I appreciate the comments, and most likely I am in the wrong.

Is the following correct?:-

* TGS calculates the cut off, well over a month ago.

* TGS has NO way of knowing what preferences candidates have put..all they know is that they have named TGS on CAF and they have sat the test. So at the point of cut off calculation they can't make any assumptions.

All I am suggesting is that 106.5 is the rank score of the 180th candidate who took the test and named TGS on the CAF and not the score of the 180th offered candidate.


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PostPosted: Sat Mar 03, 2018 11:18 am 
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The wrong bit is thinking that TGS have a cut-off. They don't. They allocate places based on score and stop when they're full.

If TGS only made offers to the top 180 girls in the test, it wouldn't fill all its places. The girl on 106.5 has taken the 180th place - she is not the girl who came 180th in the test.

You should read a bit on the equal preference system as this issue is covered by that.


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PostPosted: Sat Mar 03, 2018 11:58 am 
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Joined: Thu May 17, 2012 9:39 am
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streathammum wrote:
The wrong bit is thinking that TGS have a cut-off. They don't. They allocate places based on score and stop when they're full.


Right. The cut-off score is the score attained by the 180th girl who ranked TGS higher on her CAF than any other school for which the applicant (may also have) met the determined admission criteria. If one of the girls in the First_180_highest_scores put the-school-around-the-corner-that-allocates-on-proximity as first preference on her common application form, then that’s the school she’ll have been offered. Her TGS score becomes irrelevant.

I would not like people with a lower score to feel bad about these comments. Many of these girls are of very similar ability, just had a slightly better or worse exam day. Read the regression analysis piece I linked to in the sticky. There is no correlation between ranks high enough to get a place and their ranked order in terms of GCSE success in the same selective school. Top at the entrance test doesn’t equate to top of the year group at the same school a few years later. (Assuming the school does a good job of Progress 8, which TGS does).

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