Hi,This post and analysis is intended for parents who are calculating probability of IC offer March and Sep 2020...whose scores are below 280.

The top most score for last three years has been 401,402 and 413. This just shows the score of most intelligent student. The density of students with marks in the high end will be very low. This year the top most score is 392, which clearly shows that the second level exam was tougher.

The pass mark for last three years was 250, 246 and 239. This is decided by the schools to make sure that there are sufficient students from which they can fill all seats for 2020 entry. Which means, If they had chosen 260 as pass mark, they will not be able to allocate the full PAN for 2020. Please note that the passmark has been reducing over last years.

This year the pass mark is even more low at 222. There is a shift of the whole curve to the left compared to previous years. If we look a the spread in the below link for 2019 entry, there are more than 20 students who scored between March offer 275 and Sep offer 258.
https://www.whatdotheyknow.com/request/ ... sthrough=1

So looking at the trends and patterns for previous years, and considering shift of Top/Pass mark range to the left, I think the March IC offer will come down to ~ 265 or lower , and Sep offer will come down to 240 . A similar dip can be expected for OOC and Nonsuch scores.
What do you all think?

Wallington High School for Girls:

Year of Entry
Highest overall pass mark
Lowest overall pass mark
Lowest score offered a place in Top 100 on National Offer Day
Lowest score offered a place in Catchment Area on National Offer Day
Lowest score offered a place in Top 100 as of September
Lowest score offered a place in Catchment criterion as of September

2017: 401; 250; 309; 277; 286; 273
2018: 402; 246; 306; 269; 263; 248
2019: 413; 239; 306; 275; 299; 258

(borrowed from Streathammum).

Honestly, I think that it is a little more complicated. Last year had a bigger spread of data, with a higher greatest score, but also a lower passmark. We know that the scores dropped less last year than they had in previous years.

Based on the lower highest mark and the lower lowest mark, I do think that you are right that the scores may come down from last year. However, I don't think that you can predict what that shift will be. There are too many unknowns because you do not know what the distribution of the scores are. All you can do is put the school first (if it is your first choice), and wait and see.