Those are big leaps, Peg, but I'm not saying you're wrong! Scores in the 220s that would have been comfortable (certainly for AGS and Shottery) for the last couple of years, look distinctly borderline this year in S Warks! I can definitely see KES going into the 230s ...
Agreed...I can easily see KES at 230 (which covers rank 115) or 231 (rank 106) which gives an allowance for up to 10 PP as well (based on a finger in the air and that ranks around 125/126 on offers day have been seen in the last couple of years. 232 (rank 97) or 235 (rank 79) seems slightly high - although, if there are a lot of high scoring OCC candidates that they want to capture in the second round offers, anything is possible! I can't see the waiting list score being below 228, though. I'm not sure there will be too much difference between Shottery and Alcester Grammar this year, due to the bunching of scores - this might be the year that AGS overtakes Shottery, depending on preferences (partly because, KES is so tight, that "high" boys scores will tie up spaces in AGS.)
But I don't know...I am just guessing!