2017 results 2018 entry Discussion

[kenyancowgirl]

To be honest I was using Phoenix's numbers for last year, based on what they posted up thread. As I said, could be completely wrong but I do thinkbAQS's will rise!

[freeman]

Yes agree that AQS will increase, but having looked at equivalent ranks for scores between 248 and 213 (for which there are comparable 2017/2016 scores) it suggests that there is a difference of 2 points between equivalent "All Ranks" this year and last. So in general unless there are other factors affecting the distribution All/South/East and Boys/Girls & PANS/preferences, then it suggests to me that the AQS's should increase by 2 - but clearly there are a number of variables that can change.
Again it's only best guess based on the raw data available. Good luck to all !

[Moguie]

Has anyone tried to get the eastern candidates figures to try and figure splits?

[freeman]

The percentage of Eastern children to All children in 2015 was 26%, and 27% in 2016 - this was the same when comparing All Eastern Boys/All Boys and All Eastern Girls/Girls

There isn't a great deal of ranking info for last year, but from previous post for 2016:

239 236th of all children, 129th of all boys, 16th of eastern boys, 31st of all eastern

223 51st eastern boys

221 51 eastern girls

220 65 of eastern boys

216 841 of all children, 449 of all boys, 71 of eastern boys, 140 of eastern children

213 84 eastern girls
211 92 of eastern girls

208 595 of all boys, 111 of eastern boys
207 115 eastern boys, 219 of all eastern children, 1179 of all children, 613 of all boys

[agnihimanshu]

My DS scored 236, Ranked 329 All children (16 on same), 159 All Boys (6 on same)

I agree BlueKnows there seems to be a discrepancy above as 233 was listed as rank 108th previously
However I have looked more at comparable scores/rankings for 2016/2017, to see how they compare - and also working on the basis that irrespective of the total number of children taking the exam, the rankings are key and the effect of additional numbers will just mean more kids on same rank.

I did some comparisons which focuses on the 230/240 Scores (as that has most of data) in 2017, and where similar scores ranked for 2016 ...It is all open to scrutiny by better stato's...and better informed on this board (info is very valuable so thanks to all posters)

In 2016:
Score 245, Ranked 125 All Children,
Score 243, Ranked 150 All Children, 82 All Boys, 68 All Girls
Score 239, Ranked 236 All Children, 129 All Boys, 107 All Girls
Score 238 Ranked 256 All Children
Score 229, Ranked 494 All children, 278 All Boys, 217 All Girls

In 2017:
Score 248, Ranked 124 All Children, 60 All Boys, 64 All Girls
Score 246, Ranked 159 All Children, 76 All Boys, 83 All Girls
Score 241, Ranked 237 All Children, 120 All Boys, 121 All Girls
Score 240, Ranked 256 All Children, 131 All Boys, 125 All Girls
Score 236 Ranked 329 All Children, 159 All Boys, 170 All Girls (this was my DS)
Score 230 Ranked 488 All Children, 249 All Boys, 239 All Girls
Score 229 Ranked 520 All Children, 265 All Boys, 255 All Girls

This suggests a lower rankings for same scores this year compared to 2016, with a ranking differential of around 3 points at the top end and around 1 point around 230. Obviously it is not possible to assess the proportions of All/South but based on 2016 the proportion was roughly an average of 50% in this range. I do not know if these proportions will be any different this year. If there are other factors that could distort the figures this year compared to last please feel free to comment.

I will look at data supplied between 210-230 but I think there is insufficient data..

DS scored 228 with 275 Rank (18 in same rank), 555 overall. If it helps..

[agnihimanshu]

Hmmm...I agree that AQSs will be higher but the difference between 235 being ranked 168 out of all boys (bham and Warks) this year and 114 out of Warks last year can in part be explained by the numbers of Birmingham sitters - some of the 54 ranked boys will only be considering Birmingham schools - last year these were already taken out to reach the 114 rank at score 235. And with the Warks rankings, in the past, roughly one third of the top 100 boy ranks would not opt for KES (and this is very rough!), choosing AGS, independent, or living in one of those areas that effectively gives access to Eastern GS too. Generally, up to about rank 125 had a chance - and this is a Warwickshire only rank, remember.

I think 238 might be AQS for KES but last boy in on 1st March might be above that. We shall see - it is very much plucking numbers out of the air!

wow--impressive analysis!

How about other Grammar school say AGS? Probable AQS etc.

[neuralc]

I have had a look at the data

Between 2017 and 2016.

3 scores have a full set
229 - 29 places down percentile -0.6%
216 - 82 places down percentile -0.3%
210 - 67 places down percentile -0.9%

236 more in Warwick this year (8%)
355 more in Birmingham this year (6%)
Birthrate ~3-4% up on last year.

What this suggests:
Scores are marginally higher in terms of performance at these points but ranks are brought down by increased numbers.
If the southern circle stayed the same size then the equivalent rank for each score compared to last year would be improved.

Speculation:
A modest increase in southern circle corresponding to birthrate increase, with ranks and aqs being similar to last year.
Most of the drop in ranks is due to Birmingham -
Warwick "noise" sharing doubling the effect of birthrate from 3-4% to 6-8%.

[Ashu]

so we are filling up the CAF now, should I do online or should I send it via post?
How have people done it?

[daddyof2]

I have done it online as I think then you get an email or can see it online on the portal on 1st March and dont have to wait for the postman. I am not Warwickshire though, but think it would be the same there too, online submission means you can get it via email / or login the portal to see on March 1st.

[Moguie]

Don't know if anyone can use this to calculate anything useful but just heard back from Warwickshire and they have confirmed between 800 and 900 Birmingham results have been shared with them.

Anyone make any use of it and make into a statistical number crunching bit of usefulness?