RESULTS THREAD for 2022 entry

Eleven Plus (11+) in Warwickshire

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stat
Posts: 22
Joined: Mon Oct 18, 2021 1:34 pm

Re: RESULTS THREAD for 2022 entry

Post by stat »

Centralperk wrote:I didn’t receive my daughters results through the portal as there was a problem with her registration. Today I have received the official letter. It clearly states that the average total standardised score is 200.
Sorry, yes the average total standardised score is 200, by definition.

But if they then apply age standardisation, this would bump the average up a little bit, I'm suggesting it has and in this case to 203.

Looking at the data https://api.warwickshire.gov.uk/documen ... 03847-2787 - the average is 203
SSN
Posts: 5
Joined: Mon Oct 18, 2021 2:46 pm

Re: RESULTS THREAD for 2022 entry

Post by SSN »

Hi Stat,

May I please request to estimate AQS for SGGS with your formulas? I hope its not too much efforts.
Daughter has got 226 and as it is borderline for SGGS; we are anxious!

Thank You.
stat
Posts: 22
Joined: Mon Oct 18, 2021 1:34 pm

Re: RESULTS THREAD for 2022 entry

Post by stat »

SSN wrote:Hi Stat,

May I please request to estimate AQS for SGGS with your formulas? I hope its not too much efforts.
Daughter has got 226 and as it is borderline for SGGS; we are anxious!

Thank You.
I have this one already as it's where my daughter wants to go.

But again standard lies, damned lies and stats

I reckon that with a 10% increase in demand we are looking at a AQS in the 223 to 227 range.

So she is certainly in the mix, all credit to her.
Kristofosen
Posts: 2
Joined: Wed Oct 20, 2021 2:57 pm

Re: RESULTS THREAD for 2022 entry

Post by Kristofosen »

Hello,

What do you think the chances are for 245 for KES - inner priority area? Thanks!
stat
Posts: 22
Joined: Mon Oct 18, 2021 1:34 pm

Re: RESULTS THREAD for 2022 entry

Post by stat »

Kristofosen wrote:Hello,

What do you think the chances are for 245 for KES - inner priority area? Thanks!
Yeah KES is interesting, possibly the most challenging, in more ways that one. Indeed it may make or break the model.

245 is a fine score with a fine rank. He did very well.

Now for the lies, damned lies and statistics
  • 1. There are now two priority zones
    2. Inner Priority has a PAN of 70 - 80% of total PAN 87
    3. Inner Priority has an area 60% the size of previous priority area
    4. I'm going to assume population density is the same in each of the areas
My expectation therefore with KES is that with a 10% increase in demand we are looking at a AQS in the 233 to 237 range

This seems reasonsible to me. The only reason I can see for any priority area, inner or outer, is to limit demand.

Therefore to introduce a new significantly smaller priority area while reducing the PAN to a lesser extend, in my mind at least, implies that they consider the previous AQS (240) as being too high for that area.

The model works on the principal that if demand is reduced to a greater degree that supply (PAN) then so is the AQS

NB - I have rewritten this several times in my mind, and may do so again on this post, but am happy with the expected AQS.
Swatzy2409
Posts: 11
Joined: Mon Oct 18, 2021 7:50 am

Re: RESULTS THREAD for 2022 entry

Post by Swatzy2409 »

If the AQS for KES drops, we'd be worried as it would disadvantage us in the outer priority area :-(

We are also at 245 from outer priority, hoping to get a place in KES...fingers crossed! It would make it so much easier on us all if they could tell us the AQS sooner...
Kristofosen
Posts: 2
Joined: Wed Oct 20, 2021 2:57 pm

Re: RESULTS THREAD for 2022 entry

Post by Kristofosen »

Thank you! Yes that makes sense regarding the priority areas - will just have to wait and see now. Good luck all x
WarksMum
Posts: 44
Joined: Wed Oct 30, 2019 8:13 am

Re: RESULTS THREAD for 2022 entry

Post by WarksMum »

Swatzy2409 wrote:If the AQS for KES drops, we'd be worried as it would disadvantage us in the outer priority area :-(

We are also at 245 from outer priority, hoping to get a place in KES...fingers crossed! It would make it so much easier on us all if they could tell us the AQS sooner...
Unfortunately not even Warwickshire School Admissions know the AQS numbers at this stage, as applications aren’t due in until the 31st. They won’t know how many entrants with what scores will apply to which schools.
catan21
Posts: 6
Joined: Mon Oct 18, 2021 11:33 am

Re: RESULTS THREAD for 2022 entry

Post by catan21 »

With regard to KES, is 70 the inner circle PAN as you say stat? It says "up to 70" will be taken from inner circle after PP and looked after.
I assume the headmaster/others will be playing around with the AQS in deciding who they want to take from inner and outer circles in order to get the balance they want for boys close to the school/boys with the highest scores? Or have I misunderstood?
With regard to the delay from end October to March, at risk of annoying council staff, why can't a computer program churn out the AQN in a matter of minutes once all the applications are in?
Is it the cross border issue? or the fact that schools want to as I suggest play around with who they take in each category?
Again, good luck to everyone, it's a long ole wait.
Olog08
Posts: 18
Joined: Tue Sep 11, 2018 4:15 pm

Re: RESULTS THREAD for 2022 entry

Post by Olog08 »

catan21 wrote:With regard to KES, is 70 the inner circle PAN as you say stat? It says "up to 70" will be taken from inner circle after PP and looked after.
I assume the headmaster/others will be playing around with the AQS in deciding who they want to take from inner and outer circles in order to get the balance they want for boys close to the school/boys with the highest scores? Or have I misunderstood?
With regard to the delay from end October to March, at risk of annoying council staff, why can't a computer program churn out the AQN in a matter of minutes once all the applications are in?
Is it the cross border issue? or the fact that schools want to as I suggest play around with who they take in each category?
Again, good luck to everyone, it's a long ole wait.
I think it's a number of issues - cross border and also those who move to the area or change address and have submitted proof by 31 December who are included in the first round of allocations on 1 March. The schools and the council (Committee of Reference) usually meet in the last week of January to agree the AQS - there is one for the Rugby schools and another for Stratford/Alcester schools.
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