Millenium Baby boom...

Discussion of all things non-11 Plus related

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Milla
Posts: 2556
Joined: Mon Nov 24, 2008 2:25 pm

Re: Millenium Baby boom...

Post by Milla »

of course the year thing is confusing since the date year is one thing and the academic another. So there'll be blurring.
sherry_d
Posts: 2083
Joined: Tue Sep 01, 2009 4:38 pm
Location: Maidstone

Re: Millenium Baby boom...

Post by sherry_d »

Lemmie wrote:Thanks Hermanmunster. How bizarre.

I know the number of 11+ applicants for Kent was around 11700 in 2008 and around 11900 last year. It would be interesting to know how many have taken it this year. I'm usually not bad at tracking stuff down but perhaps the figures aren't out yet?
11 500 this year so the numbers seem to be adding up.
Impossible is Nothing.
mike1880
Posts: 2563
Joined: Sat Sep 27, 2008 10:51 pm

Re: Millenium Baby boom...

Post by mike1880 »

11+ numbers in B'ham peaked in Nov 2000 for 2001 entry, they hit bottom in 08/09, then probably nudged up about 5% last year (no official numbers yet but qualifying marks sharply up) - possibly the recession biting, otherwise numbers should still be on the way down for a year or two yet.

Mike
workhard
Posts: 132
Joined: Sat Jul 31, 2010 4:31 pm

Re: Millenium Baby boom or what?

Post by workhard »

Hi all!

There has been an increase in secondary pupil numbers in my borough and a neighbouring borough; same for primary pupil numbers. From what I can gather anecdotally, this is also the case in many other school districts around the country.

Looking at the big picture of the long term UK economy, this ought to be good news - late, but better late than never. Why? Well, many economists have predicted that, to maintain any sort of standard of living and overall economic vibrancy and 'dominance' (e.g. World Top 10 or Top 12 by volume), we need our total population to rise steadily, maybe to 73-75 million. One big reason is that we need the young to feed people like us, the old, in the next 25 years or so.(This has long been a concern in places like Germany, too.)

How to grow a population? Only two ways: import (immigration) and breeding. We have not been great at breeding and the breeding challenge is too great, anyway. So the economists have essentially said import or suffer in the global economic competition; indeed, it could be argued that the biggest competition in the global economy is for people and economically appropriate people.

Birth rates, fertility rates, etc and school populations? The key statistic is the total numbers of kids and familes having kids or likely to have kids. Remember that many kids come to the UK - my siblings and I did all those years ago. Such kids are not in statistics of birth or birth rate or fertility rates. They just turn up, for example in the middle of Year 3 at your local primary or at the beginning of Year 7 at your local secondary school, or at the beginning of Year 9 at a local boarding school or even at the beginning of year 12 into a Sixth Form. These will include the growing numbers of state and private pupils whose well established overseas families value a UK education, especially post 13 and post 16. (I was at Uni with a guy from a an elite Boarding School in India; his Sixth Form and Uni were in England, he became a highly qualified IT professional. For the UK economy, we got him for free post-16; but then, for family reasons and a greater quality of life, we lost him back to India by the time he was around 30 and married with kids. ... We need to keep those like him in economic terms, especially in this global economy.)

Some of the New British families are large. I do not know what overall impact this has. Certainly, in an individual school, this can be quite something. Some families will come with four kids and then have quite a few more. One symtom already noticeable is that many SELECTIVE schools are creaking at the seams in some UK regions. The current issue at Habs Girls in N W London is symptomatic of the educational population pressure: there are just 'too many' accomplished girls at 11 plus, all with supportive families and many with middle-income or higher-income resources. North London Collegiate, St Paul's Girls, City of London Girls and Henrietta Barnett are Habs Girls' principal competitors (4 indy and 1 grammar overall). And yet, in most years, they could all now increase their intakes without a marked impact in quality; indeed, the heightened competition and the increased numbers of savvy parents might even be raising the quality of 11 plus candidates.... Whether state or indy, all of this is good for the economists' prediction, providing we make each one appropriately productive, be it as an an Eco Transport Entrepreneur today, a homegrown doctor for 2015, a baker in 2020 or a teacher in 2035.

Whatever our favourite economic theory, politics or prejudice, this is the way of the economic world. It entails many thorny social issues, but how well we tackle this ongoing challenge will both tell us something about ourselves as a nation and it will also determine what economic prizes our society deserves.

And if you love your country, get breeding ... and make sure they are weanned on VR and NVR puzzles!

WH
pheasantchick
Posts: 2439
Joined: Tue Jun 02, 2009 10:28 pm

Re: Millenium Baby boom...

Post by pheasantchick »

Interesting reading, Workhard. Sorry, my breeding days are over, although do enjoy practising!! :oops:

In Kent, the numbers taking 11+ exam were down this year.
hermanmunster
Posts: 12817
Joined: Fri Sep 15, 2006 9:51 am
Location: The Seaside

Re: Millenium Baby boom...

Post by hermanmunster »

Interesting stuff workhard! Only problem is that most of the "imports" I see around are not financially productive (wherever in the world they are from).
They are very heavy users of the NHS and I suspect many other publicly funded services. The only way importing people works to help the economy is if they are producing more than they take out.

Once read an article which implied that an individual had to be earning 27K in order to be adding to the public pot rather than taking out - can't remember what they used to calculate this (or indeed whether there was any accuracy to it :roll: ) and obviously will depend on how many in the family are earning - use of schools etc.
Glparent
Posts: 108
Joined: Sat Nov 21, 2009 12:02 pm

Re: Millenium Baby boom...

Post by Glparent »

Interestingly, in our little part of Gloucestershire the current Yr6 (born 1999/2000) intake is larger than previous years, despite the lower birthrate - one school I know of has 3 classes of 30 in that year group, rather than their usual 2.

Of course this doesn't necessarily mean more kids will be sitting 11+ around here. Just glad DD1 sat it last 2009 (and was successful :) ), and DD2 will do same in 2011 (trying not to feel stressed about that too prematurely!! :roll: ).

Anyone else know of bulges in the county?
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