Year 7 predicted GCSE Grades

[Proud_Dad]

Personally as a parent, I think giving predicted GCSE grades on a report, even in year 7, is an improvement on the current system of KS2 levels.

At least using predicted GCSE grades will give some kind of clear indication to parents of how a child is doing in a particular subject and importantly would hopefully be consistent across subjects. (similar to the A-E grades we used to get on annual reports when I was at school)

i.e.
7,8,9 - all fine and dandy
4,5,6 - room for improvement
1,2,3 - serious problems!

As oppose to the ridiculously confusing (IMHO) KS2 grades which are commonly used at the moment. I can't remember the exact marks but lets say for example DS's Y7 grades were something along the lines of:
English 6b
PE 5a
French 4b

So based on those marks it might be logical to assume he was doing well in English, average in PE and had some problems with French, right? WRONG!

Because different subjects have different grading systems a grade of say 5a in Y7 English means a child might be underperforming whereas a grade of 5a in French would mean they are excelling! (I might be wrong on the actual values but the point is the grades are clearly not consistent across different subjects).

The "logic" given for this system is that they start learning French at a later stage than English so would expect a lower score. Unfortunately the downside is that parents have no idea what any of the numbers actually mean in relation to how their child is doing!

[Guest55]

Proud Dad - levels were statutory for KS3 until recently - any good school explained the differences by giving a 'year average' to show whether there were serious problems in a subject.

Nobody understands the new GCSE grades yet - 9 will be given to a 'capped' proportion we are told so it would be wrong for any Year 7 to get a 9 now.

[Proud_Dad]

Proud Dad - levels were statutory for KS3 until recently - any good school explained the differences by giving a 'year average' to show whether there were serious problems in a subject.

Nobody understands the new GCSE grades yet - 9 will be given to a 'capped' proportion we are told so it would be wrong for any Year 7 to get a 9 now.

Statutory or not, my point is that KS2/KS3 grades can be confusing for parents. As an experienced teacher you probably have a far better feeling for what they mean but to most parents they don't seem as meaningful because they vary so much across different subjects and years. Even if the school is good enough to supply an average, is that the average for that particular school or the average for every school in the country, and it doesn't mean too much without knowing the overall distribution? If the average is 5b and your child gets a 5a are they a top of the class whizz-kid or just coasting along just ahead of the national mean?

I thought that there was a fairly simple correlation between the new GCSE grades and existing ones?
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Even if there's some uncertainty about 9's given to capped proportions or whatever the basic principle seems quite straightforward. Or if schools would rather not start predicting GCSE grades in year 7 why not just use the good old fashioned system of giving a grade A-E which everyone intuitively understands. Everyone understands that an "A" means "very good" whether its for Maths, Art or French, year 7, 8 or 9. As oppose to a "6b" which you have to cross reference with the average for that particular subject and that particular year group, presuming the school are kind enough to supply the average in the first place (which some don't).

[Guest55]

That's the 'old' equivalence - we are now told the new 'standard' will be a 5 ie higher than a grade C.

I don't see why levels were more confusing than GCSE grades - the same problems arise as you describe. The written comment and whether the child is 'on track' should tell you everything you need to know.

[Amber]

In the end the only grade which matters is the one on the paper in August of Y11. I don't think it is ever worth getting hung up on target grades and predicted grades.

The only time predictions are of any significance is if your DC is applying for university before getting A2 grades - in that case the predicted ones will matter. GCSE ones don't.

[Guest55]

One slight correction to Amber's post - GCSE predictions might be important in Year 11 if your child wants to apply to a sixth form or college for A levels.

[kenyancowgirl]

plus another little correction...the universities I have spoken to recently (admittedly only a handful) have all said that, going forward, in the absence of AS levels, although they will of course look at a school's predicted A level grades for a pupil, they will also be looking at the GCSE grades (as they have years of attainment evidence linking GCSEs with eventual A levels. GCSE results are going to, therefore, to my mind become as important as they were when they were still called O levels.....!!

[Amber]

One slight correction to Amber's post - GCSE predictions might be important in Year 11 if your child wants to apply to a sixth form or college for A levels.

Totally fair and true point G55. And as one of mine moved at sixth form I do know this.

These do tend to be the predictions after the Y11 mocks though, rather than Y7. But yes, thanks for the correction.


KCG - that is grades, and yes they are important. But not GCSE predictions I don't think.

May start putting as my signature Scrap GCSEs.

[kenyancowgirl]

Fair point - apologies - was reading in a rush with no glasses (or brain!) on my phone!

[wildwest]

It is rather tricky for 11yr olds to get to grips with the actual limitations of these 'predictions' versus apparent importance of them.

I just told dc that they will just be 'the minimum that you should be able to achieve' and not 'the maximum that you can possibly achieve'.

It will depend on how the school or staff explain it to the dc and how they are interpreted (or not) at home I suppose.