A level Eng Lit or RS ?

[Amber]

That does not seem to be a matrix of GCSE grade against A level grade in a particular subject; that's what I want to see.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.u ... bility.pdf" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

There you go then. In there are lots of pretty charts correlating A level performance with GCSE in different subjects. The idea seems to be that it varies by subject (I have only skimmed this), and that grade A at GCSE is a better predictor of grades than grade B, but because most people have at least an A before they do a subject at A level, it is harder to tell what happens to those below an A.

Thing is though G55, you are a mathematician so love this quants stuff. I am a qualitative researcher so for me there are always nuances and things not explained by data. So some of the more contorted and strained points in this lengthy analysis need other explanations which data can't offer. I don't think your matrix exists - and if it did, how on earth would it control for variables like personality, home environment, peer group? There can surely only ever be trends here, never easy correlations, let alone causalities.

An example from the conclusions of that report (OFQUAL, 2017) might help anyone deciding whether or not to click on the link:

What is the nature of the prima facie challenge raised by the CPA approach? Should CPA be evaluated in terms of providing a potential solution to a prediction problem (ie what is the most appropriate way to predict A level grades)? Or should CPA be evaluated in terms of raising a potential question about a progression problem (ie why are there different GCSE to A level progression rates across subject areas, if this is not attributable to misalignment of grading standards)? If the former, then perhaps mean GCSE score would be a better baseline than subject GCSE grade after all...If the latter, then perhaps the ‘misalignment’ explanation ought to be considered the most parsimonious one until a more plausible explanation can be provided.

[Catseye]

DD started with 4 Alevels, did the AS for one and continued with Eng lit, RS, Psychology, for which she had A/A* at GCSE where equivalent, and thankfully gained similar at A level. Girls who had gained B or less at GCSE, did struggle somewhat at A level, and overall grades were quite patchy. So I do think this is relevant, regardless of effort or input.
As for her ‘airy fairy’ choice of subjects, and also as a STEM orientated family, this was entirely her interest and her choice. One which we have always respected and admired. It is not a comment she would have taken humorously, particularly given the amount of effort that was given to three essay heavy subjects. Compared to that, maths was a doddle!

Durham University researchers analysed and compared data from nearly one million pupils sitting GCSE and A-level exams and reviewed 28 different studies of cross subject comparison conducted in the UK since 1970.

They found significant differences in the relative difficulty of exams in different subjects with the sciences among the hardest. On average, subjects like Physics, Chemistry and Biology at A-level are a whole grade harder than Drama, Sociology or Media Studies, and three-quarters of a grade harder than English, RE or Business Studies.

https://www.dur.ac.uk/news/newsitem/?itemno=6687" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Just saying

[mm23292]

I’m not sure she’d appreciate comparisons like this either, but that half grade is all rather elementary when you’ve got an A*. Does it matter? Learning preferences are not homogenous, and as someone who has had complete autonomy over choice and direction, we have always supported her interests.
Both DH and I studied A level maths and sciences, and we both agree that being mathematically able (once upon a time ), achieving a decent grade in Maths, came relatively easy. As for DH, he made local news for having near perfect scores in all science and maths subjects...having studied Further maths as a fifth subject. Yet, he barely scraped through on English at school, and it’s a bit of a family joke that his written communication skills are so decidedly ‘constrained’! Horses for courses as they say...

Having said all that, all though these stats are somewhat dated, it’s an interesting comparison. What I find more useful, and is probably more pertinent to students studying literary type subjects, is the statistics on students achieving good grades in at least 3 subjects. I recall seeing an FOI request somewhere, which showed something like only 20% of A level students achieving minimum BBB, and AAA of course much lower.
What seemed interesting, is that students studying science/maths combinations, seemed to have a more even spread of grades, whereas achieving an even spread of good grades across a selection of non STEM subjects was more hit & miss. This does seem to have been the case amongst my daughter’s cohort too. I know a lot of the girls deliberately chose one ‘soft’ subject such as Media, which seems very popular as a guaranteed good grade, and some still dropped a grade or two on the third, but still got their uni place based on having the expected in the other two. There was definitely an element of tactical choice at play, which of course isn’t really an option if you’re heading down the STEM path!