UCAS has now issued statistics for applications

More applicants have accepted an offer to start a course this autumn, with fewer students currently planning to defer than in 2019

514,020 people applied for undergraduate course – up 1.6% on this point in 2019

A record 40.5% of all UK 18 year olds have applied – the first time more than four out of ten have applied by this point in the cycle. Last year’s equivalent figure was 38.9%.

281,980 young people have applied, increasing from 275,520 a year ago, despite there being 1.5% fewer 18 year olds in the population than last year. 2020 is also projected to be the final year of a UK-wide decline in the overall number of 18 year olds in the total population.

https://www.ucas.com/corporate/news-and ... g-lockdown

A level results day (13 August), now less than 5 weeks away

So the quoted 1 in 5 students that were intending to defer haven’t (at least yet anyway)?

DD got an email from her firm choice about how they intend to start with ‘blended learning’ in September etc. They’ve been quite good at keeping her informed with what’s happening.

The hordes (or the parents) who initially declared that they were going to defer, despite not having applied for their place on that basis, may have gone away and quietly checked the university's stance on the subject and discovered that yes, it's true - no-one can stop you asking, but the university doesn't have to find your reason for wanting to good enough to allow it...

_________________
Outside of a dog, a book is a man's best friend. Inside of a dog it's too dark to read.Groucho Marx

DD decided she was going to defer (strongly encouraged by me) at the start of Year 13, so she will still ask. She has already decided she isn’t ready and will reapply if she has to. It really could backfire but I’m hoping she’ll still stick to her decision.

Presumably it will be harder to get in next year due to cohort size increase.
The course my DD has firmed is advertised one grade higher for 2021

If I remember correctly in our local area the first year of the cohort with bulge classes will be year 13 next year. There was something like 7% more in next cohort in Kingston, which if same nationally would mean extra 15-20k candidates

If she already knew that she wanted to defer that long ago, did she consider applying for 2021 entry from the outset?

_________________
Outside of a dog, a book is a man's best friend. Inside of a dog it's too dark to read.Groucho Marx

I think she was keeping her options open just in case she got Cambridge. I wanted her to take a year out and apply this year but obviously it wasn’t my decision. She’s not the easiest person to talk to.

My DS will defer.
Applied this year as did Oxbridge but as that didn’t work out he doesn’t want to start in Sept.
He has been working since a couple of weeks into lockdown and can carry on for the next year or travel if he can after Xmas.
One thing swaying him is wanting to graduate later in the hope the job market will have bounced back by then.
He will also do a year in industry if he can partly for the same reason.
If he has to reapply he will.

there are good reasons to delay a year but it is going to be a very tough time getting places in 2021 with the extra students from this year and the normal number from next year (will be a little like the last year of the £3K fees when no-one deferred and it was very competitive) + the fact that some unis will be a) much smaller b) not open at all by then - they don't have the funds to get themselves through a lean year. May take a few years to sort out

I’m sure it will be harder to get in for 2021 entry.
I’m also pretty sure his mind is made up.
If DS didn’t have a job he would probably go this year.