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PostPosted: Mon Jun 07, 2021 5:01 pm 
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The 2020 results is from this forum and the official website. It contains anonymous results for all the candidates who took the exam in 2020. It has the birth month, Maths, English and Total (standardized?) score.
I have done some data visualization and trying to post some figures. I hope to get more discussions on how well I should prepare my son for the test and how competitive is it to get a place.

I am trying to find a free online host for the figures I shown below. if you can't see the figure, please let me know.

Birth month for all candidates and candidates with scores >=235.
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English, Maths and Total scores count.
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English vs Maths scores and threshold 235 and 232.
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This is an interesting figure and I am trying to understand it.
Cumulative counts from top scores. This seems to suggest there are almost 300 candidate just get 3 or less questions wrong in Maths. To be safe, candidate should get at most 2 questions wrong out of 50 maths questions! The English results are more diverse and I am not sure whether it is because more aged standardization adjustment is done on English scores than the Maths scores. Suggestions are very welcome.
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For those with total scores >=235, some Statistics (min, max, median, 25% 75% quantile, outliners) detailed results over birth month.
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PostPosted: Tue Jun 08, 2021 11:28 pm 
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Wow bull_r,

I'm not qualified to comment on your statistical analysis, but I think you've answered your own question.

I did a VERY basic analysis a few years ago, which showed 4-5 steps down to the cut-off mark in maths.
Clearly that's now been reduced to 2-3 - so that's the level you need to prep your son to!

The standardisation methodology is the same for both papers. I think the reason for the smoother curve for the cumulative count in English is that they have increased the number of questions on the English paper (without increasing the time allowance) so hardly any boys are getting 100%.

When DS sat the test, there were 50 questions. That went up to 56 the following year, and is now 64!
As they're not supposed to make the maths harder by including KS3 topics, it wouldn't surprise me if they upped the number of questions on that paper as well.


This is, even more, nuts.


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PostPosted: Wed Jun 09, 2021 7:29 am 
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55 boys scored 141 in Maths in 2020 but only 5 boys scored 141 in English.

Some parents assume that a very high score in Maths will carry their ds through but this is increasingly not the case if the English is not also solid. DG


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PostPosted: Wed Jun 09, 2021 9:54 am 
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141 doesn't necessarily indicate ful marks in either exam, because it is a standardised score - I can't see where the actual raw marks achieved in either paper are given,to support the statement re how many questions a candidate may or may not have got wrong in the maths paper?

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PostPosted: Wed Jun 09, 2021 11:28 am 
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ToadMum wrote:
141 doesn't necessarily indicate ful marks in either exam, because it is a standardised score - I can't see where the actual raw marks achieved in either paper are given,to support the statement re how many questions a candidate may or may not have got wrong in the maths paper?


True

But I've always thought it a safe bet that out of 2500-3000 boys taking the QE exam, there will be some getting 100% raw scores.


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PostPosted: Wed Jun 09, 2021 2:02 pm 
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Location: Essex
thisisnuts wrote:
ToadMum wrote:
141 doesn't necessarily indicate ful marks in either exam, because it is a standardised score - I can't see where the actual raw marks achieved in either paper are given,to support the statement re how many questions a candidate may or may not have got wrong in the maths paper?


True

But I've always thought it a safe bet that out of 2500-3000 boys taking the QE exam, there will be some getting 100% raw scores.



No doubt, but without the raw scores, you cannot state with absolute confidence that any given number of candidates got any specific number of questions wrong.

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Outside of a dog, a book is a man's best friend. Inside of a dog it's too dark to read.Groucho Marx


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PostPosted: Wed Jun 09, 2021 11:19 pm 
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ToadMum wrote:
No doubt, but without the raw scores, you cannot state with absolute confidence that any given number of candidates got any specific number of questions wrong.


Again true

But from the point of view of preparing a DS for QE, it is sensible to assume that his target needs to be 47-48/50 on the maths paper


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PostPosted: Thu Jun 10, 2021 12:35 pm 
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Joined: Sun Jun 06, 2021 4:52 pm
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thisisnuts wrote:
Wow bull_r,

I'm not qualified to comment on your statistical analysis, but I think you've answered your own question.

I did a VERY basic analysis a few years ago, which showed 4-5 steps down to the cut-off mark in maths.
Clearly that's now been reduced to 2-3 - so that's the level you need to prep your son to!

The standardisation methodology is the same for both papers. I think the reason for the smoother curve for the cumulative count in English is that they have increased the number of questions on the English paper (without increasing the time allowance) so hardly any boys are getting 100%.

When DS sat the test, there were 50 questions. That went up to 56 the following year, and is now 64!
As they're not supposed to make the maths harder by including KS3 topics, it wouldn't surprise me if they upped the number of questions on that paper as well.


This is, even more, nuts.


thisisnuts,

Thanks a lot! for your valuable information about the number of questions in English test! I was indeed confused why there seems to be a relatively large number of wrong questions - I always thought the total number of English questions are around 50-56. OK now 64, in 50 minutes.... :shock: :? and it explains the figure well.


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PostPosted: Thu Jun 10, 2021 12:53 pm 
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Joined: Sun Jun 06, 2021 4:52 pm
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ToadMum wrote:
thisisnuts wrote:
ToadMum wrote:
141 doesn't necessarily indicate ful marks in either exam, because it is a standardised score - I can't see where the actual raw marks achieved in either paper are given,to support the statement re how many questions a candidate may or may not have got wrong in the maths paper?


True

But I've always thought it a safe bet that out of 2500-3000 boys taking the QE exam, there will be some getting 100% raw scores.



No doubt, but without the raw scores, you cannot state with absolute confidence that any given number of candidates got any specific number of questions wrong.


ToadMum

I total agree with you and "thisisnuts". Without the raw score, I am just doing guess work. I am always very interested in finding the relation between raw score and standardized score, and the age adjustment. As I can only prepare my son and hopefully he get a good raw score.

Some information says the standardized score (without age adjustment) is computed as below:

Standardize score = (raw score - mean_of_all_raw_score) / standard_deviation_of_all_raw_score *15 + 100

So that a candidate have 1 standard deviation higher than the mean raw score will have standardized score of 115.

After this standardization (i.e. typically make distribution with 0 mean and unit variance), now the scores should be a normal distribution with 100 as mean and 15 as standard deviation.

Age standardization then +/-3 depends on the age.

Clearly from the English result, it is more bell like shape than the Maths results. English is harder to prepare I supposed. The Maths results is far from a normal symmetric bell curve, probably suggesting candidates are better prepared such that the curve is shifted toward higher scores.


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PostPosted: Thu Jun 10, 2021 1:20 pm 
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Daogroupie wrote:
55 boys scored 141 in Maths in 2020 but only 5 boys scored 141 in English.

Some parents assume that a very high score in Maths will carry their ds through but this is increasingly not the case if the English is not also solid. DG


Daogroupie,

I totally agree with you. I guess it may also due to the fact that Maths is easier to prepare compare to English. English scores may be a better indication of how (naturally) good a candidate is.


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