QE results & discussion Oct 2021

[liang65]

Very true DG. I will update my table
If anything, my assumption is that the score may drop a point or two as the test was harder IMO.

this is standardised score, which in my opinion should not be affected by test being harder/easier

[Daogroupie]

There is one thing that was different last year and that was how much harder it was to move.
Those ready and wanting to move if offered a place simply found it all too difficult; so some places on higher scores that would have been taken up were turned down which meant the speed with which the lower scores were reached was faster.
This year I have already spoken to parents who have told me they are ready to move if they receive an offer as the housing market is booming.
I would love to see the last score to get in to reach 231/232 this year but if a lot of families with higher scores are prepared to move then it just may not get to these lower scores this year. DG
typo in numbers edited by moderator

[jazbaati99]

That may well be true for this year DG.

I have taken another look at the historic data and tried to calculate the %age of boys who made the cutoff for QE (lowest score) and refused QE for any reason. This may be not putting QE as the first option on CAF or taking a position and then refusing it. The %age of boys refusing a place last year was historically lowest (41.1%) compared to around 48% average refusal in the previous years. So last year, fewer boys refused an offered place. This may be historically boys who would have gone to a private school perhaps but instead chose QE. This probably will not be the case this year and hopefully will offset some of the extra families who will move this year. I am still hoping that the cut off may just be a tad lower this year but let's see.

Year Cutoff Totalboys BoysWhoMadeCutoff RefusedQE

2014 223 1984 361 46.8%
2015 222 1945 398 51.75%
2016 226 2204 359 46.5%
2017 224 2223 382 49.7%
2018 229 2789 382 49.7%
2019 232 - - - -
2020 229 2846 370 48.1%
2021 232* 2928 326 41.1%

Year = Year of entry, so 2021 refers to the cohort starting QE in Sep of 21 (appeared in test in Sep 20).
CutOff = Last score that was offered a place, please note that not all of boys who scored this would have got a place. It will very much be distance dependent. A better assumption is to add 1 in this score and use that as a reference
TotalBoys = All boys attempting QE exam
Boyswhomadecutoff = No of boys who scored at least the cut off marks that year
Cut off for 2021 is assumed to be 232 but we don't know this figure yet. Hopefully this will be confirmed on the tours.

%age refusal is calculated using a PAN of 192. So for 2021 if 326 boys got more than 232 then the %refusal = ( (326 - 192) / 326 ) * 100

[TAJ001]

I think you should remove 232* from 2021
It is very mismeading. As Daogroupie said, it may stop at a higher point if lots of people choose QE and move. I suggest you put TBD to avoid misleading others with your own guesses.
Or at least write this is as a range of 240 to 229

[hermanmunster]

I think you should remove 232* from 2021
It is very mismeading. As Daogroupie said, it may stop at a higher point if lots of people choose QE and move. I suggest you put TBD to avoid misleading others with your own guesses.
Or at least write this is as a range of 240 to 229

I think 232* refers to to entry to the school in 2021 rather than taking the exam in 2021 which would be entry in 2022 - it is known that 233 got a place and possible that some 232 did - hence the *. No-one has a real clue about 2022 entry

[2020D2022S]

That may well be true for this year DG.

I have taken another look at the historic data and tried to calculate the %age of boys who made the cutoff for QE (lowest score) and refused QE for any reason. This may be not putting QE as the first option on CAF or taking a position and then refusing it. The %age of boys refusing a place last year was historically lowest (41.1%) compared to around 48% average refusal in the previous years. ....

Removed my question as the data presented was for a different context.

[TAJ001]

I think you should remove 232* from 2021
It is very mismeading. As Daogroupie said, it may stop at a higher point if lots of people choose QE and move. I suggest you put TBD to avoid misleading others with your own guesses.
Or at least write this is as a range of 240 to 229

I think 232* refers to to entry to the school in 2021 rather than taking the exam in 2021 which would be entry in 2022 - it is known that 233 got a place and possible that some 232 did - hence the *. No-one has a real clue about 2022 entry

Oh my bad
Means that 2020 229 is not last year exam and it is last to last year

Thanks for clarification. This is why I was having different views.

[jazbaati99]

That may well be true for this year DG.

I have taken another look at the historic data and tried to calculate the %age of boys who made the cutoff for QE (lowest score) and refused QE for any reason. This may be not putting QE as the first option on CAF or taking a position and then refusing it. The %age of boys refusing a place last year was historically lowest (41.1%) compared to around 48% average refusal in the previous years. ....

Is this supported by the WL movements, which would need to move about 70 places each year on 180 PAN?

To have a more precise analysis I need to know the cut-off scores for last years at offer day i.e. 1st March. Last year offer day score was 235 and the last boy who got in was 232 (an assumption, which will hopefully be confirmed on tours) A total of 255 boys scored more than 235 which was the cut off at 1st March. That means 63 boys (255 - 192) didn't put QE as the first option on CAF. Then we have the wait list movement. The last cut off score on wait list is also misleading as not all 232's last year would have got a place. I think a better yardstick is to use 233 as all 233's definitely got in. Only a few 232 will be in. There are 308 boys who scored more than 233. So overall 37.6% boys refused to take up a place in QE ((308 - 192) / 308 )

I hope it clarifies things a little

[infiniteloop]

Score: 227 - should we put QE as first preference in the CAF? Is there a chance.... ?

[mad?]

Score: 227 - should we put QE as first preference in the CAF? Is there a chance.... ?

If it is your first choice then you can put it as first preference. However, if you look at the data provided on this thread you will notice that it will take a dramatic change for scores at this level to get an offer. Do bear in mind the QE have only invited those with over 229 to the open evenings. Ultimately it is your choice whether you use up a CAF space, no-one can tell you definitely what the outcome will be, only what has happened in the past (see above).