Is there an exodus from private to grammar this year?
Moderators: Section Moderators, Forum Moderators
-
Sally-Anne
- Posts: 9235
- Joined: Wed Jan 11, 2006 8:10 pm
- Location: Buckinghamshire
Is there an exodus from private to grammar this year?
After the surprises of the allocations this year for RGS, DCGS and JHS I thought it might be interesting to run a straw poll on the continuing conspiracy theory that many Bucks parents are opting out of private education for grammar schools because of the recession.
(Anyway, lots of people have started polls on other sections, and I've never started one, so I'm feeling behind the times!
)
So, if you personally know of a family (not just from hearsay) that has definitely changed their plan from private school to state grammar this year, do vote.
Please disregard 11+ qualification and school allocations - just include them if they were now dead set on the state sector rather than private because of financial reasons.
It isn't scientific, statistically accurate or any of that, but it could be interesting to see a sample of numbers on the matter for a change, rather than just speculation.
Sally-Anne
(Anyway, lots of people have started polls on other sections, and I've never started one, so I'm feeling behind the times!
)So, if you personally know of a family (not just from hearsay) that has definitely changed their plan from private school to state grammar this year, do vote.
Please disregard 11+ qualification and school allocations - just include them if they were now dead set on the state sector rather than private because of financial reasons.
It isn't scientific, statistically accurate or any of that, but it could be interesting to see a sample of numbers on the matter for a change, rather than just speculation.
Sally-Anne
I think more boys were born in '97/'98 and therefore even if the percentage of boys qualifying stays the same there will be more of them.
I remember thinking back in the summer of '98 that there was a disproportionally large number of boys being born - most of my ante-natal class produced boys, nursery and pre-school seem to have a high ratio of boys to girls and at one point the school reception class had twice as many boys as girls (it evened out eventually but there are still more boys than girls in DS's yr6).
Must have been something in the water
I remember thinking back in the summer of '98 that there was a disproportionally large number of boys being born - most of my ante-natal class produced boys, nursery and pre-school seem to have a high ratio of boys to girls and at one point the school reception class had twice as many boys as girls (it evened out eventually but there are still more boys than girls in DS's yr6).
Must have been something in the water
No harm in a fun poll, but it is VERY unscientific. The 3 families person X personally knows may include two of the families person Y knows.
Also, surely this year is too early for much of an effect. The recession didn't really hit till after the main application date and even those who squeezed in at the last minute wouldn't have been prepping for it all summer.
Next year is when any effect is likely to be more visible.
Also, surely this year is too early for much of an effect. The recession didn't really hit till after the main application date and even those who squeezed in at the last minute wouldn't have been prepping for it all summer.
Next year is when any effect is likely to be more visible.
-
Sally-Anne
- Posts: 9235
- Joined: Wed Jan 11, 2006 8:10 pm
- Location: Buckinghamshire
I think andy is probably right about the proportion of boys perhaps being higher in the 97/98 birth year - I recall that my ante-natal group produced nothing but boys as well.
Zee, of course you are right that it is completely unscientific, and I made that clear, but it has shown already that 5/8 people don't know anyone who has changed their plans. That tiny, tiny sample bears out my own belief that the rumours are generally unfounded, and are unlikely to be a major contributory factor to the skewed allocation profiles in Bucks this year.
On the point about prepping for the 11+, there are quite a lot of parents who, although fully intending to go for a private school education, will still coach for the 11+, because the VR element is also part of the CE exam. In the past the child would have taken the 11+ either as a "just in case" measure, or as exam experience for the CE exams in January.
However, since the economic downturn before Christmas, perhaps that 11+ pass or appeal suddenly became far more important - or perhaps the only route remaining to some people?
For a rather more "scientific" analysis of the likelihood of this being a major factor, this thread might reassure you that I am not actually away with the fairies!
http://www.elevenplusexams.co.uk/forum/ ... sc&start=0
Sally-Anne
Zee, of course you are right that it is completely unscientific, and I made that clear, but it has shown already that 5/8 people don't know anyone who has changed their plans. That tiny, tiny sample bears out my own belief that the rumours are generally unfounded, and are unlikely to be a major contributory factor to the skewed allocation profiles in Bucks this year.
On the point about prepping for the 11+, there are quite a lot of parents who, although fully intending to go for a private school education, will still coach for the 11+, because the VR element is also part of the CE exam. In the past the child would have taken the 11+ either as a "just in case" measure, or as exam experience for the CE exams in January.
However, since the economic downturn before Christmas, perhaps that 11+ pass or appeal suddenly became far more important - or perhaps the only route remaining to some people?
For a rather more "scientific" analysis of the likelihood of this being a major factor, this thread might reassure you that I am not actually away with the fairies!
http://www.elevenplusexams.co.uk/forum/ ... sc&start=0
Sally-Anne
I know quite a few people with kids in private schools who threatened to take the 11+ in Oct 08 (but then didn't) and more who are in training for Oct 09 - but whether or not they take the exam when it comes to it, is another story - however, later this year, if the gloom and doom continues, who knows. 
But at this moment in time I do not know of anyone who has opted out of private education in favour of a GS.
Ambridge
But at this moment in time I do not know of anyone who has opted out of private education in favour of a GS.
Ambridge
