The "Rough Guide to 2011 Allocations"

[Sally-Anne]

The figures below are the first preferences for the Bucks Grammars, post-qualification.

They are the numbers for all those (regardless of catchment) who placed the school in first place on the CAF. They do not include successful appeals or late testers, and nor do they include children who placed another school higher on their CAF but subsequently did not qualify for that school, e.g. an OoC grammar.

They give an early indication as to which schools are likely to be more or less popular (i.e. oversubscribed) than last year. By cross-referencing these numbers against the allocation profiles for previous years http://www.elevenplusexams.co.uk/school ... n-profiles" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; you may be able to get some idea of how likely it is that your child will get their first preference GS on March 1st.

Clearly much depends on where other children live, so they are only a "Rough Guide" and no more than that.

Code: Select all

         	           	PAN   2011   2010   2009   2008
Aylesbury Grammar      	180   150	 153	 154 	167
Aylesbury High	         180   138	 157 	145    163
Beaconsfield High     	 150	123	 145	  99	 158
Burnham Grammar        	150	 86	  64	  53	  54
Chesham Grammar        	180	104	 110	  92	 101
Dr Challoners Grammar  	180	159	 177	 214	 196
Dr Challoners High     	150	160	 151	 185	 147
John Hampden	           150	117	 129	  99	  80
*Royal Grammar School     182	139 	194	 222	 182
Royal Latin            	174	174	 194	 184	 199
Sir Henry Floyd        	150	111	  65	  80	  63
Sir William Borlase    	120	134	  76	 110	 128
Wycombe High           	180	156	 136	 156	 131
					
* Does not include boarding places					

[burnzeazi]

Do the figures include OOC applicants who put a Bucks grammar first?

[Sally-Anne]

Do the figures include OOC applicants who put a Bucks grammar first?

They are the numbers for all those (regardless of catchment) who placed the school in first place on the CAF.

Yes, they do, but beware this point:

nor do they include children who placed another school higher on their CAF but subsequently did not qualify for that school, e.g. an OoC grammar.

The figures are only for those who actually listed a Bucks GS in first place. If a child listed a Berks school in 1st place and was unsuccessful, but took the Bucks test successfully, the Bucks GS will become their new "first" preference.

For many reasons such as that the figures are really only useful to see the "trend" year on year compared with the allocation profiles, and little more.

S-A

[Midget Man]

Wow, the number for SHF has shot up as 1st preference this year.

[Marylou]

Thanks for posting this Sally-Anne! I can think of at least one person who would be very interested to see this table, but don't want to build their hopes up. Am I right in thinking that the RLS figure of 174 should be treated with extreme caution, as successful selection appeals is likely to push the number over PAN? I wonder if it is possible to extrapolate a rough post-selection appeals figure at this stage?

[Sally-Anne]

Thanks for posting this Sally-Anne! I can think of at least one person who would be very interested to see this table, but don't want to build their hopes up.

The reason for posting the numbers is to help people "manage expectations" ahead of March 1st. They are probably more valuable to those who may need to manage expectations downward, rather than to get anyone's hopes up because there are too many "unknowns".

Am I right in thinking that the RLS figure of 174 should be treated with extreme caution, as successful selection appeals is likely to push the number over PAN?

Most definitely, and all the numbers should be treated with extreme caution! They just give an idea of the trend. For example, as first preferences for RGS are down quite substantially on previous years, the allocation distance could well (based on past performance, which is no guarantee, etc, etc) to go beyond catchment this year.

However there is another health warning behind the numbers in the case of RGS, which is that the catchment areas for boys schools in South Bucks have changed since the last time (2008) when RGS went beyond catchment, so that could influence the final allocation. However, as a trend it would be fair to say:

:: In 2008, RGS received 182 first preferences, which resulted in a final allocation profile of 18.537 miles, extending beyond catchment.

:: In 2011, with only 139 first preferences, the final allocation profile could be similar to 2008, and might even extend further.

I wonder if it is possible to extrapolate a rough post-selection appeals figure at this stage?

No, because we have no way of knowing which schools the successful appellants put on their CAF as first preference. All one can do is take the likely total of successful appeals (around 350, from my Sticky) and divide by 13 for the number of GS. That increases every number by around 27 applicants, so RLS would become 201 against a PAN of 174.

S-A

[Dad40]

S-A,

Great piece of data - thanks.

Seems there is unlikely to be much controversy in the Chiltern/Wycombe/South Bucks area this year.....

[monsoon]

Wow, the number for SHF has shot up as 1st preference this year.

Does this means 'All Offered' for SHF will change???

[Sally-Anne]

Does this means 'All Offered' for SHF will change???

That is very hard to predict indeed - I wouldn't put money on it remaining All Offered, but I think the distance will be pretty high.

[mk123]

Certainly SHF figures this year show how helpful the art of statistics is in terms of predictions. Well 1 March is not far;)