Stats - 11+ passes by birth month

[Dad40]

For those who sat the 11+ in October 2010, here are the pass rates broken down by the candidates' birth month (Source: Bucks CC)

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Month of birth	      Not qualified	Qualified 	Total	Allocated Grammar 
September 1999	         410	          231	     641	         197
October 1999	           436	          246	     682	         185
November 1999             436	          237	     673	         176
December 1999	          427	          193        620	         145
January  2000	          394	          213	     607	         172
February 2000	          370	          209	     579   	      158
March 2000	             394	          210	     604	         168
April 2000	             406	          216	     622	         179
May 2000	               379	          213	     592    	     167
June 2000	              375	          194	     569	         148      
July 2000	              368	          218	     586	         173
August 2000	            370	          225	     595	         174
Total	                  4775	         2613	    7388	       2042

[Sally-Anne]

Dad40 emailed these to me earlier. No great shocks - the average is 35%, December is low at 31% but that will just be a variation in this cohort I suspect.

What I do find interesting is that 571 candidates qualified in the test but did not take up the option of a place at a Bucks GS. (Obviously Berks GS will be a big factor in that.) I think this is the first time we have seen actual numbers for that.

Well, small things like that do interest me!

[Guest55]

Interesting ..

If you work out % qualifying from each month you get:

Sept 1999 36%
Oct 1999 36.1%
Nov 1999 35.2%
Dec 1999 31.1%
Jan 2000 35.1%
Feb 2000 36.1%
Mar 2000 34.8%
Apr 2000 34.7%
May 2000 36%
June 2000 34.1%
July 2000 37.2%
Aug 2000 37.8%

[Sally-Anne]

Well, small things like that do interest me!

Interesting ..

G55, has it ever occcurred to you that you and I need to get out more?

[TraffordMum]

Well, I need to join you. Ever since I worked out that in my daughter's class (grammar) 40% are Sept-Dec birthdays, 50% are May-August birthdays and only 10% are Jan-April birthdays I've been dying to do a year wide comparison!

[Dad40]

What I do find interesting is that 571 candidates qualified in the test but did not take up the option of a place at a Bucks GS. (Obviously Berks GS will be a big factor in that.) I think this is the first time we have seen actual numbers for that

Surely a case of *could not* take up a place? Each year about 2500-2600 qualify but there are only about 2000-2100 places. Tis the OOCs that invariably lose out (or very often "choose out" as you imply).

However what your post has pointed out to me is that the table shows candidates that *qualified* (i.e. includes successful selection appeals) despite me asking in the FOI about candidates who *passed* the tests outright.

Not that it really matters I guess !

[Guest55]

My excuse is that,as a mathematician, any data interest me ...

[Sally-Anne]

Surely a case of *could not* take up a place? Each year about 2500-2600 qualify but there are only about 2000-2100 places. Tis the OOCs that invariably lose out (or very often "choose out" as you imply).

The footnote to the stats says:

3 Includes pupils allocated to a Buckinghamshire Grammar school only. The remaining qualified pupils generally attend selective secondary institutions elsewhere or withdraw from the Admissions procedure altogether.

Either someone is dissembling or we have to assume that Berks GS and private schools form the majority of the 571?

However what your post has pointed out to me is that the table shows candidates that *qualified* (i.e. includes successful selection appeals) despite me asking in the FOI about candidates who *passed* the tests outright. Not that it really matters I guess !

Roughly 300 - 400 will have been successful appeal candidates. I have often pondered whether appeals by birth month vary in their success rates and Etienne and I have speculated in the past that having a July or August birthday might perhaps give a slight edge to an appeal.

That might influence the stats, but if it does then it is obviously doing so correctly because (apart from the December blip) all the birth months look very similar.

[pippi]

On the subject of appeals (and while we've all got our anoraks on) the year by year stats for heard/successful are:

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                 2010         2009        2008          2007
Heard             952          850         859           911
Successful        337          343         331           339
%ge              35.4%        40.4%       38.5%         37.2% 

which still looks like remarkable luck that it's always around 340 successful! Maybe just being told that around 30% passed last year makes a difference to panels? Also for last year, below I've put data from Bucks CC for appeals for children eligible/not eligible for free school meals.

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Appeal Type	Pupils eligible	Pupils Not eligible	No data
Successful	     <5	              211	             113
Unsuccessful	    8	              302	             326

[khanj010]

im sorry im not sure i understand but the appeal for eligible fsm pupils were very low, so does this mean that children whos perants are on low income will not get threw because they might of got a few points more wrong then other children, and because of this disadvantage they are not sucessful.
What i mean is if these perants had made an appeal there must of (im asuming) must of mentioned that they are disadvantaged in some ereas , im babling now ! please help , do anyone know what i mean.