GCSE Targets

[slough mum]

Does anyone know how a school would predict a child's GCSE results?

Would they use the childs KS2 or/and KS3 results?

My DC is currently in Yr 8 and has met half of their end of yr targets in Feb. Should I contact the school and get them to set new targets. (I don't know if these will play a part in predicting the child's final GCSE results).

[Mindset]

Some schools use Sats, although often these are less useful with a cohort who will expect plenty of A*s. Other schools will use Cats (more reliable predictors at the higher end, many feel.) Other schools use a suite of measures to predict. The schools I know well use information derived at the age of 11 to set GCSE target grades, and find it reliable.

So in these, there would be nothing to be gained in terms of GCSE targets on renegotiating a Y8 target. But if you think it would motivate them now, then that's different. Most Y8s I know would probably respond nicely to a huge hug, a 'look at where you're at half way through the year... What could you possibly achieve by July?!' conversation, and a pat on the back.

There is also something to be said for not having overly high targets at GCSE. Many students would prefer a slightly more modest target that they can see they are hitting, rather than something a little bit beyond reach. Although I recognise that some are motivated the other way. You know best for your child, if you think it would help then asking the school their target planning methods would be very reasonable.

M

[Looking for help]

I think they will use KS3 achievement in relation to KS3 targets to predict the GCSE grades.
The KS3 target was probably set by taking into account the KS2 achievement and the CAT tests on entry.

I would second what mindset says, it is probably best to let him be, and say well done, keep it all up. He may have already achieved his end of year 8 target in this term's work, but that might only be based on one test, or two, and might vary again in the summer term.

I am thinking back to year 8 with my son, I think he was given (if memory serves) 7C in Science in Autumn, and yet this reduced to something stupid like a 5A in the Spring term, just because of one bad test result.

He achieved his target overall in the year though, and at the end of KS3.

[Amber]

Does anyone know how a school would predict a child's GCSE results?

Would they use the childs KS2 or/and KS3 results?

My DC is currently in Yr 8 and has met half of their end of yr targets in Feb. Should I contact the school and get them to set new targets. (I don't know if these will play a part in predicting the child's final GCSE results).

I wouldn't bother. Even if the school predicts your child Ds at GCSE (unlikely) s/he can still get a run of A*s. My DD's school only started predicting GCSE results once the mock results were in in Year 11. And for every person for whom they were accurate, another one did differently. GCSE predictions are useless unless your child wants to change school for sixth form, and in that case you need something in about January of Year 11. 'A' Level predictions do have a real use, for university applications - GCSE ones don't and I think you should not worry at all about target grades. My Year 9 had exceeded all of his by October half term and we just have a laugh at the report now. He still tries his best as he likes seeing himself ahead of his targets - if every time you achieve something someone says, "OK, let's move the goalposts then" - does it really make much difference to your motivation? I don't think so and would say there has been no negative impact here of being ahead; nor equally for one of my others not having targets at all, ever.

In short, I doubt it will have any impact at all on GCSE grade predictions, and even if it did, that in practical terms will have no impact on the actual results your child attains.

[Kingfisher]

I entirely support what Amber has said; carry on regardless. They are not used for anything and will not affect your DC's ability to get the grades and 'predictions' for other schools are not made until Year 11, so why worry?

[Belinda]

I wouldn't overly concern yourself with predictions / targets. Whilst no expert, they seem to sometimes be based on the historical data of previous attainment by students - and I don't mean your child but 'students' who have gone through the whole process and come out the other side with x,y and z.

E.g. If your child attains a level ? in Y6 sats then historically x percentage of these students go on to attain a B or above in GCSE etc.

As I say, it's one example I've read about and probably quite complicated but has a certain degree of accuracy - obviously!

There are many factors that decide a students final GCSE grade. I would focus, as a parent, on those [factors] that you and your child are responsible for - and leave the 'statistics' to the school!

[Guest55]

Most Fischer Family Trust (FFT) data to help with target setting. We use them to check on underachievement rather than 'capping' what a pupil can achieve.